Brexit On The Brink...

[Econoline]

"Tryin' hard to look like Gary Cooper..."

[Econoline]

Returning to the thread topic:


Exactly!

[rubato]

yrs,
rubato

[Scooter]

[Gob]

According to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product (GDP)* in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019 having slowed to 0.2% growth in the previous quarter.

The 0.5% growth is in line with the latest expectations from the Bank of England and slightly above those from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The UK economy grew by 1.8% compared with the same quarter in the previous year (Figure 1), its fastest rate since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017.

UK unemployment rate drops to lowest level since 1974

Britain’s unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8 per cent in the three months to March, from 3.9 per cent in the three months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics. The employment rate hit a record high of 76.1 per cent.

Nearly 100,000 more jobs were added in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter, showing the strength of the jobs market despite the turmoil surrounding Brexit.

The IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index for services rose to 51 in May, from 50.4 in April — slightly higher than forecast by a Reuters poll of economists. A reading above 50 indicates that a majority of businesses report increased activity.

The pick-up in services activity was supported by greater intake of new business, higher staffing levels and increased optimism. But Brexit related uncertainty continued to weigh on business and consumer spending, according to the survey. 

GBP/USD has posted slight gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2731, up 0.25% on the day. On the fundamentals front, British Services PMI improved in May to 51.0, above the estimate of 50.6. In the U.S., ADP nonfarm payrolls posted a meager gain of 27 thousand, compared to the estimate of 185 thousand.

[Scooter]

So staying in the EU has been beneficial to the UK economy.

[Bicycle Bill]

-"BB"-

[Gob]

The "Project Fear"predictions have been proved wrong, and continue to be so, of course, and those that continue to try to put the UK down and disparage it's people continue to look foolish.

https://www.ft.com/content/7f9c2442-8c2 ... 2f641eca37

In the three months to April, average earnings for employees, excluding bonus payments, grew at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent, faster than the 3.3 per cent in the three months to March and better than economists polled by Reuters had expected. After adjusting for inflation, earnings grew by 1.5 per cent, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.

Employment increased by 32,000 people over the previous three months, better than the 10,000 expected by markets, pushing the number employed to a record high of 32.75m, and keeping the unemployment rate at its lowest level since at least 1974.

The increase was largely driven by the number of women employed jumping by 60,000 quarter on quarter to a record high of 15.46m.

“Overall, the labour market continues to be strong, with employment still at a joint record rate,” said Matt Hughes, ONS deputy head of labour market statistics.

[Scooter]

So being in the EU is working out well for you. Good!

[rubato]

Gunshots are only dangerous after you pull the trigger.




yrs.
rubato

[Gob]

So being in the EU is working out well for you. Good!

I hear this one so often from the remoaner crowd;

Something good happens to the UK, (like lowest unemployment for several decades,) it's because we haven't left the EU yet.

Something bad happens in the UK (.....?....) it's because we voted for Brexit.

Funny how we didn't achieve such low rates of unemployment prior to the Brexit vote...

Project Fear was the cornerstone of the Remain campaign in 2016. Politicians, economists and business leaders warned against the severe dangers of voting to Leave the EU. George Osborne painted a memorable picture of Brexit as a “leap in the dark”.

So how accurate were they?

The forecasts by the Remain campaign about the economic effects of a vote to Leave the EU were particularly stark. Helpfully, for anyone attempting to judge the accuracy of these predictions, they were also strikingly precise. Remain campaigners presented them as concrete forecasts, instead of broad estimates based on contentious assumptions.

A Treasury study – no doubt influenced by Osborne – claimed a Leave vote would plunge the economy into an immediate recession, and lead to an increase in unemployment of half a million.

In fact, employment has risen by 400,000 to a record high. There was, of course, no recession – and we are currently experiencing sold economic growth of just under 2%.

A few days before the Referendum, Osborne ramped up the rhetoric and promised an ‘Emergency Budget’ if there was a vote to Leave. He threatened he would need to impose tax increases and spending cuts. Thankfully Leave won, David Cameron resigned, Theresa May took over the leadership of the Conservative Party and promptly sacked Osborne. So he was not in office to implement his ridiculous and unnecessary plan after the Referendum. While the Treasury, led by the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has continued to enforce fiscal discipline, there has been no need for an emergency squeeze on Government budgets, because Osborne’s predicted recession never happened.

Remainer scaremongering on Scotland has also been proved wrong. David Cameron frequently talked of the risk of Brexit potentially causing the actual break-up of the UK. For this reason alone, many patriotic Britons reluctantly voted Remain.

But Brexit has actually coincided with a dramatic fall in support for Scottish independence – 32% according to the latest opinion poll. Despite First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s bluster about Scotland being “dragged out of Europe against its will”, the majority of Scots seem happy with the current constitutional situation. Sturgeon has now been forced to row back from her attempt to hold a second independence Referendum.

This unexpected decline in support for Scottish independence may be, in part, due to the popularity of the Unionist Conservative leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson. It may also be caused by the plainly inconsistent position of nationalists, who want to take control of powers from Westminster, only to give them back to Brussels. Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party is committed to trying to block Brexit, and their MPs even voted against triggering Article 50 in the House of Commons.

Many other infamous predictions from the Remain campaign have also been proved false.

France did not pull out of the Le Toucquet Agreement, causing migrant camps to appear in Kent, as predicted by David Cameron. In fact, the Agreement has just been extended – although more needs to be done to ensure there is enough manpower at the border in Calais, given the extra financial contributions from Britain.

World War Three did not occur.

The peace settlement in Northern Ireland has not collapsed, although preventing a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is, of course, a key aim of the negotiations.

The Remain campaign made outlandish claims about the economy, Scottish independence and the border with France, in an unsuccessful attempt to scare Britons away from voting to Leave. Over 18 months on, it is clear that they were wrong – and Brexiteers can look back with confidence at their vote to Get Britain Out of the EU.

[rubato]

A few things that have already happened in anticipation of Brexit:

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit- ... on-2018-11

Companies are fleeing the UK no matter what happens with Brexit. Here's all the damage that's already been done
Callum Burroughs
Mar. 13, 2019, 6:11 AM
City of London Many are fleeing London even before Brexit. REUTERS/Eddie Keogh

Banks and financial firms that make up about 6.5% of Britain's GDP have already taken precautionary measures to prep for Brexit, meaning a lot of damage is already done.
Banking is just the tip of the iceberg with many other industries also making irrevocable decisions

The damage to the economy from Brexit is already afoot — so much so that the act of leaving the EU itself is, at this point, increasingly irrelevant.

note: If you threaten people and they believe you they will act on the threat.

Uncertainty mounted with Prime Minister Theresa May's landslide defeat on her Brexit deal on Tuesday. But even before that, leaders of companies with UK operations haven't been taking any chances. The latest wound: Nissan announced Tuesday that it will stop manufacturing its premium Infiniti model at its plant in Sunderland later this year.

It follows a decision earlier this year by Nissan to cancel plans to build its new sport utility vehicles at the plant. The original decision would have created 740 new jobs.

Honda also announced last month it would close its plant in the UK by 2021 causing the loss of around 3,500 jobs.

Brexit is increasingly fraught with uncertainty after the UK's parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for the second time Tuesday.

The impact on the City of London could be especially damaging — financial services, heavily concentrated in the capital, account for 6.5% of Britain's GDP.

Read More: The closer the UK gets to Brexit the more the country regrets it, polls show

The winner so far has been other European banking hubs. A Frankfurt lobby group has claimed that between €750 billion to €800 billion ($911 billion) in financial assets and claims 10,000 jobs will move to the German city by the time Britain leaves the European Union on March 29.

These moves won't be undone, even if Brexit were somehow cancelled.

"I don't believe Brexit can be a trigger for a financial crisis or a banking crisis," Sergio Ermotti, CEO of Swiss investment firm UBS, told Bloomberg back in September. "But it could undermine investments, and trigger maybe a slowdown in the economy. That's clear."

Here's a roundup of the financial exodus so far:

US bank giants Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup have moved 250 billion euros ($283 billion) of balance-sheet assets to Frankfurt because of Brexit.
Bank of America is spending $400 million to move staff and operations in anticipation of Brexit, and is trying to persuade London staff to move to Paris.
Barclays last week won permission to shift assets worth £166 billion ($216 billion) to its Irish division. Barclays is set to become Ireland's biggest bank.
France's BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale have opted to transfer 500 staff out of London to Paris.
UBS has chosen German financial center Frankfurt for its new EU headquarters.
Swiss peer Credit Suisse is moving 250 jobs to Germany, Madrid, and Luxembourg among other EU 27 countries as well as $200 million from its market division to Germany. And in December Credit Suisse told its wealthiest clients to hurry and move their money out of the UK before Brexit.
Germany's Deutsche Bank is also considering shifting large volumes of assets to Frankfurt as part of its Brexit plan.
HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has shifted ownership of many of its European subsidiaries from its London-based entity to its French unit.
Australia's largest bank by assets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has set in motion plans to base around 50 staff in Amsterdam, and has applied for a banking licence in the country.
Other Australian lenders Macquarie, Westpac, and ANZ are also in talks to move operations to Dublin and continental Europe.
Europe's biggest repo trading venue, called BrokerTec, is being moved to Amsterdam from London, meaning a $240 billion a day repo business is leaving the UK.
More than 100 UK-based asset managers and funds have applied to the Irish central bank for authorization in Ireland.

The impact of these changes will see less tax revenue for the government, fewer jobs, and a dent in dealmaking, taking a shine off the City's luster.

[rubato]

It's "know your propaganda week" here in digital land.

"scaremongering, fearmongering"
are what tobacco companies called claims that smoking caused lung and heart disease.

"scaremongering, fearmongering"
Is what anti-vaxxers say pro-vaccination groups are doing.

"scaremongering, fearmongering"
Is what climate change denies accuse climate scientists of.

So kids, its important to know your facts and look under the hood. And it helps to understand physical and socio-economic mechanisms as well.

don't worry, be happy


yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

Scaremongering etc.. (Funny how Aspergers boy omitted this bit from his quote)

It follows a decision earlier this year by Nissan to cancel plans to build its new sport utility vehicles at the plant. The original decision would have created 740 new jobs.

Honda also announced last month it would close its plant in the UK by 2021 causing the loss of around 3,500 jobs

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48545733

1. Falling demand
After years of strong growth, global car sales were broadly flat in 2018, largely because of a slump in demand in the world's biggest market, China.

2. Emissions woes
In Europe, emissions issues are also causing headaches for car firms.

Air quality concerns and taxation changes have led to a big drop-off in diesel sales, contributing to a 7% fall in new car registrations in the UK in 2018.

3. The electric challenge
To get their emissions levels down, carmakers are also going to need to sell a lot more electric vehicles, but there are big obstacles in the way.

"A lot of carmakers are not ready to deliver electric vehicles at the right quantities," says Mr Leggett. "They need to change their operations and gear the cars much more to a mass market, but that requires investment."

4. A shift away from ownership?
Other worries are weighing on carmakers' minds, too - one being the emergence of new technologies that could radically change our relationship to car ownership.

Ford will close its engine plant in Bridgend, south Wales, next year, with the loss of 1,700 jobs.

The company blamed the ending of a contract with Jaguar Land Rover and a fall in sales of petrol engines amid huge changes in the car industry, stressing that the decision was not related to Brexit.

[RayThom]

And now they want to take the telly from old pensioners.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/15/petition ... s-9969619/

[Scooter]

Boris skipped the debate.

Should be an automatic disqualifier.

[Gob]

And now they want to take the telly from old pensioners.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/15/petition ... s-9969619/

That's the BBC, not the government.

[Gob]

Boris skipped the debate.

Should be an automatic disqualifier.

Piffle. An unofficial debate, called by a minor TV channel?

[Lord Jim]

Tory leadership: Boris Johnson to take part in BBC TV debate

The frontrunner in the contest to replace Theresa May said the programme, which will be shown after the second round of MPs' voting, was the right forum to debate the big issues.

Rival candidates have accused Mr Johnson of avoiding media scrutiny.

He said he was "very keen" on TV debates but viewers might not like too much "blue-on-blue action".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48638758

So what Johnson wants to avoid, is too much TV spectacle highlighting Tory leadership divisions...

Whatever one thinks of Johnson, that strikes me as smart politics...

In any event, he's off to an excellent start:

Boris Johnson tops first ballot in Tory leadership contest

Boris Johnson has secured the highest number of votes in the first MPs' ballot to select the Conservative Party leader and next prime minister.

Three contenders - Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey - were knocked out in the secret ballot of Tory MPs.

Mr Johnson received 114 votes, significantly more than his nearest rival Jeremy Hunt, who came second with 43. Michael Gove was third with 37.

Seven candidates progress to the next round of voting next week.

The two who prove most popular after the last MPs' ballot will go to Conservative Party members in a final vote later this month.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48624579

[Guinevere]

The voters have a right to understand all the positions of all the candidates, and to be able to compare and contrast. What poor behavior. It’s downright Trumpian.