It's Manafort and his deputy Gates & now Papadopoulous

[Sue U]

Right on cue:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago

Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

....Also, there is NO COLLUSION!
7:28 AM - 30 Oct 2017

Shorter Trump: "Paul who? Also, where's that bus?"

[Lord Jim]

I have a concern about Manafort...

He knows quite well how Putin and Co. operate, so he may be more worried about getting whacked by Vlad then he is about going to prison...

I hope the FBI keeps good surveillance on him, so he doesn't commit "suicide" or meet with an unfortunate "accident"...

[Sue U]

Manafort is no threat to Putin. In fact, there's probably nothing Putin is enjoying more than chortling over the self-infliction of wounds by the American adminsitration.

[ex-khobar Andy]

I have still never seen discussed what I think is the basic question.

As I see it, the issues, in order of priority, are these.

1). Did Russia attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election in some manner? I think the answer here is yes; and I would be astonished, and Putin would be remiss, if in fact they did not. The average citizen of the world does not give a shit who runs Belgium or Idaho but might be personally affected by the government in WDC.
2). If they did, did they attempt to do so by covert means - spreading of disinformation, hacking voting machines, paying bribes etc. Again I think yes at least on the information bit.
3). What is a realistic estimate of the effect of this meddling? Did it sway just a few votes or enough to influence the outcome? Don't know.
4). Did Trump and/or his campaign assist or collude with this effort? In a sense, this is almost the least important issue. If the Russian effort, to a reasonable estimate, did in fact affect the outcome, what can we do about it? `If the election was in fact tainted do we just say - Oh shit, that's life? If Trump is in fact guilty of collusion then why is President Pence some sort of recompense? If Trump is not guilty of collusion but the Russian efforts appear to have been effective, how do we get a redo? The Constitution is silent on this and we probably, at the every least, require some sort of amendment which addresses an ultimate resolution.

[Scooter]

What incentive is there for them to talk if they are all assured of pardons for keeping their mouths shut? In Manafort's case there are probably state crimes he can be charged with that could be used to leverage him, but what about the others?

[Sue U]

4). Did Trump and/or his campaign assist or collude with this effort? In a sense, this is almost the least important issue. If the Russian effort, to a reasonable estimate, did in fact affect the outcome, what can we do about it? `If the election was in fact tainted do we just say - Oh shit, that's life? If Trump is in fact guilty of collusion then why is President Pence some sort of recompense? If Trump is not guilty of collusion but the Russian efforts appear to have been effective, how do we get a redo? The Constitution is silent on this and we probably, at the every least, require some sort of amendment which addresses an ultimate resolution.

You don't need a constitutional amendment to address this situation; this is the kind of thing the "high crimes and misdemeanors" wording for impeachment was meant to cover. "Collusion" and its fallout are political crimes that can be addressed or ignored by Congress. In theory it could ultimately result in a President Ryan, which I'm not sure is significantly better than a President Pence in terms of governmental policy, but there's always an election just around the corner.

[Sue U]

What incentive is there for them to talk if they are all assured of pardons for keeping their mouths shut? In Manafort's case there are probably state crimes he can be charged with that could be used to leverage him, but what about the others?

Papadopoulos is presumably already talking in return for the minimal charge/plea deal. In addition to potential state crimes for tax evasion, money laundering and RICO conspiracy, Trump has been signaling for months that he was happy to throw Manafort under the bus. I'm sure NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman wouldn't shy away from state cases against Junior, Jared and the Trump Organization for money laundering and tax evasion if the investigation indicates any funny business there -- and given the whole Trump Tower Baku Snafu alone, how could it not?

[Darren]

Podesta just announced he's stepping down as head of the Podesta Group. With the association with Manafort, he may be on the radar.

[Guinevere]

Ah, the FoxNews talking points have been issued.

[Sue U]

Podesta just announced he's stepping down as head of the Podesta Group. With the association with Manafort, he may be on the radar.

Um, that's Tony Podesta -- not John Podesta, who has been out of the Podesta Group for 24 years. But of course, HILLARY IS THE REAL RUSSIA COLLUSION!

[Guinevere]

I have a concern about Manafort...

He knows quite well how Putin and Co. operate, so he may be more worried about getting whacked by Vlad then he is about going to prison...

I hope the FBI keeps good surveillance on him, so he doesn't commit "suicide" or meet with an unfortunate "accident"...

From the Statement of Offense on Papadopoulos:

Para. 35 - "Following his arrest, defendant Papadopoulos met with the Government on numerous occasions to provide information and answer questions."

https://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2017/ ... -TRDU.html

I.e., the bird is singing. He is the one you have to be worried about getting whacked.

[Sue U]

TRUMP: "George who? Never met him."

[RayThom]

Papadopoulous' guilty plea is the cake... Manafort and Gates merely the icing. Nothing says it better than a grand old party for some good ol' boys.

https://www.justice.gov/file/1007346/download

[ex-khobar Andy]

4). Did Trump and/or his campaign assist or collude with this effort? In a sense, this is almost the least important issue. If the Russian effort, to a reasonable estimate, did in fact affect the outcome, what can we do about it? `If the election was in fact tainted do we just say - Oh shit, that's life? If Trump is in fact guilty of collusion then why is President Pence some sort of recompense? If Trump is not guilty of collusion but the Russian efforts appear to have been effective, how do we get a redo? The Constitution is silent on this and we probably, at the every least, require some sort of amendment which addresses an ultimate resolution.

You don't need a constitutional amendment to address this situation; this is the kind of thing the "high crimes and misdemeanors" wording for impeachment was meant to cover. "Collusion" and its fallout are political crimes that can be addressed or ignored by Congress. In theory it could ultimately result in a President Ryan, which I'm not sure is significantly better than a President Pence in terms of governmental policy, but there's always an election just around the corner.

Yes - but my question about amending the Constitution (I could have been clearer) is what happens if there was significant Russian interference but there is not evidence of collusion on the part of Trump. You can't impeach the guy if he unknowingly benefited from the efforts of others, but the average citizen could be forgiven for feeling that there needs to be some redress and we cannot wait until 2020 by which time there might have been a couple more retirements from SCOTUS.

[Sue U]

You can't re-run an election just because some percentage of the American electorate may have been swayed by propaganda, regardless of whether it was foreign or domestic. The constitution guarantees the right of the people to be idiots in their political choices. And those choices have consequences.

[Darren]

Yes - but my question about amending the Constitution (I could have been clearer) is what happens if there was significant Russian interference but there is not evidence of collusion on the part of Trump. You can't impeach the guy if he unknowingly benefited from the efforts of others, but the average citizen could be forgiven for feeling that there needs to be some redress and we cannot wait until 2020 by which time there might have been a couple more retirements from SCOTUS.

Andy, you went to school at a time when students learned about how the Constitution is amended. Given the states' involvement, it ain't going to happen.

[Lord Jim]

Manafort, Gates put under house arrest

Washington (CNN)Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were both ordered to home confinement Monday and ordered to surrender their passports after pleading not guilty to charges stemming from Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation.

Judge Deborah Robinson agreed to Justice Department requests to set bond at $10 million for Manafort and $5 million for Gates. They did not have to put collateral behind that amount, and will not have to pay it unless they violate the court's directions.

The house arrest request came because the government stressed the "nature of the charges and their seriousness."
Manafort would be a risk of flight because he faces 151 to 181 months in prison, and alleged fraud in his charges. Gates faces 121 to 151 months in prison. Gates must report to the Eastern District of Virginia court for monitoring Tuesday at noon. Manafort will be monitored by DC officials.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/30/politics/ ... index.html

[Guinevere]

A very good day for Team Mueller. And a serious warning shot across the bow of the OrangeTitanic.

[RayThom]

[Guinevere]

From Dahlia Lithwick:

Still, so much of this document that is not about Trump is, in many ways, all about Trump. The charges against Manafort and Gates, for instance, mirror what many financial experts have long claimed about the Trump Organization: that they have been at pains to hide money from the IRS, including money from foreign sources; that they have engaged in conspiracies to launder foreign money; that they have made false statements and conspired to hide foreign funds. This is an indictment that should terrify Trump in that it shadows and hints at his own unlawful conduct and nabs two players who might be willing to cooperate to get out of their mess. And Trump can’t claim any of it is a direct attack on him.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... cared.html