Independence day

[Lord Jim]

Another interesting question is what happens now to the UKIP....

After initially saying he thought they had lost Nigel Farage later gave a rousing victory speech, but it may have been more of a swan song...

What is the rationale for the UKIP now that it's central raison d'etre for being has been achieved?

What is the rationale for the party's continued existence?

(Particularly if Cameron is replaced by a pro-Brexit Tory)

The UKIP may very well become the victim of its own success....

[Bicycle Bill]

Now it will also be interesting to see how the political leadership of EU responds...

If they're smart, they'll respond with humility, and offer to be more accommodating to both the UK and the desires of the peoples of the remaining member states. They'll take a long hard look at their structure and goals and and try to re-tool as type of decentralized federation with more respect for the national prerogatives of the member countries.

If they fail to do this, and instead double down on arrogance, (which frankly is what I expect them to do) then the UK will be only the first of many countries to head for door, and they will be assuring their own increasing irrelevance and ultimately their extinction...

Because I as an American didn't have a dog in this fight I didn't follow it closely, but since it appears the voters in the UK have decided that the country should divorce itself from the EU, what difference does it make one way or the other if the EU leadership offers to be more accommodating to the UK?  Or was this vote more of a non-binding referendum — a vote of no confidence with regard to remaining a member of the EU — and the results do not actually mandate future policy?

And if it is binding and the government must now act on the wishes of the voters, how long do they have to make the break?

-"BB"-

[Bicycle Bill]

I've seen a couple of morons talking about a new general election...

Where is the mandate for that?

The leadership of both major parties supported Remain...

On the other hand, the argument for a new Prime Minister is a different matter...

I'm not going to believe anything until I hear Cameron is sticking a fork in it.

Well, not only has Cameron stuck a fork in it and admitted that "Leave" beat "Stay" 52% to 48%, he's also announced that he is stepping down as PM, saying that the country "requires fresh leadership to take it in that direction".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... the-world/

-"BB"-

[Econoline]

If, as a result of Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK*...maybe they can just keep the same initials and call it the Untied Kingdom? (Just a suggestion. )



* (not to mention Gibraltar...but that's a whole 'nother brand of canned worms...)

[MajGenl.Meade]

Brexiting Glastonbury.

[Lord Jim]

I think Cameron has made the right decision...(even though as recently as a couple of days ago, he was vowing to continue as Prime Minister no matter how the vote went)

After the extreme, alarmist rhetoric he employed going so all-in on this, there was just no way he could have credibly served as the PM to lead Britain through this transition...it just didn't make sense...

Upon reflection, he came to understand this...

The UK needs to have a pro-Brexit leadership team in place to carry this out in the most positive way.

[Burning Petard]

Now that Scotland voted 62% remain, can they revote to on pulling out of the UK?

With the Irish Republic firmly in the EU, will their be a reversion to full border crossing separation between Northern Ireland and the Republic?

Ten Years ago I had business trips to Northern Ireland--my employer had a couple of factories there. I heard ordinary conversation among protestants that shocked my liberal pc American ears. Stuff said about Catholics that I would not have heard from the worst anti-Nigger racist Georgia cracker or Ozark hillbilly. Clearly the problems in the plant all went back to the less-than human catholics who could not be expected to read or remember a procedure from one hour to the next, or ever come to work sober.

With that kind tribal bigotry I don't expect the island to unite just to become all part of the EU.

(((((snailgate)))))

[Big RR]

what difference does it make one way or the other if the EU leadership offers to be more accommodating to the UK?

economically it makes a big difference for the UK and the EU; if the EU leadership reacts petulantly and starts to try to exact some sort of penalty or revenge on the UK, both sides will suffer. But the UK is a huge global economy, and I doubt they will toss away trade with the UK for silly reasons. My guess is that cooler heads will prevail and both sides will reach a reasonable accord that is in the interest of each party (although I think economically both sides will still be worse off than if the UK remained, at least for a while). Face it, from what I saw of the BBC last night, it does appear that trade regulations, while part of the debate, were not a major factor in the debate; but the EU rule went much further than trade (or even economic) relations.

And if it is binding and the government must now act on the wishes of the voters, how long do they have to make the break?

From what I heard last night, once Article 50 of the EU constitution (?) is invoked, there will be a 2 year period to negotiate the withdrawal (and I presume accomplish it without major upheaval). However, it is unlikely that the UK will start this clock until there is a new PM, and it does not appear that Brussels is in any rush either.

[Lord Jim]

Good post Big RR...that sums it up well...

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

This is going to be a relatively long and careful and thoughtful process. Passions will cool, and ultimately all the parties will reach agreements that are in their mutual best interests...

I'm also seeing a lot about how, "Oh this means that now Scotland will definitely leave the UK", but we're a long ways from a decision about that too.

If the vote were held today, maybe so, but the Scots are going to watch how this unfolds, and ultimately they too will vote (if there is a second referendum) based on what they see as their best interest, weighing any potential advantage they think they might gain as a tiny member state of the EU versus the loss of the benefits they receive from being a part of the UK...

[Big RR]

I agree Jim; too much is at stake to do otherwise.

I personally wonder if the EU will open up some sort of economic cooperation organization to permit more open trade without the requirement of full membership. If done right, it could be attractive, although it could also make leaving more attractive to some of the countries.

[rubato]

what difference does it make one way or the other if the EU leadership offers to be more accommodating to the UK?

economically it makes a big difference for the UK and the EU; if the EU leadership reacts petulantly and starts to try to exact some sort of penalty or revenge on the UK, both sides will suffer. But the UK is a huge global economy, and I doubt they will toss away trade with the UK for silly reasons. My guess is that cooler heads will prevail and both sides will reach a reasonable accord that is in the interest of each party (although I think economically both sides will still be worse off than if the UK remained, at least for a while). Face it, from what I saw of the BBC last night, it does appear that trade regulations, while part of the debate, were not a major factor in the debate; but the EU rule went much further than trade (or even economic) relations.

And if it is binding and the government must now act on the wishes of the voters, how long do they have to make the break?

From what I heard last night, once Article 50 of the EU constitution (?) is invoked, there will be a 2 year period to negotiate the withdrawal (and I presume accomplish it without major upheaval). However, it is unlikely that the UK will start this clock until there is a new PM, and it does not appear that Brussels is in any rush either.

That bolt was already shot. The EU already offered significant concessions and the UK has now slapped them away. They will continue to trade, of course, the EU trades with a lot of other countries and now the UK will have the same terms the EU offers to everyone else.

yrs,
rubato

[Scooter]

I personally wonder if the EU will open up some sort of economic cooperation organization to permit more open trade without the requirement of full membership.

That's what the EEA is supposed to achieve. And it is also negotiating free trade agreements with the U.S. and Canada, so there are models that are already out there. No one is going to cut off their nose to spite their face, but it's not going to be easy or cheap. As the price for Norway's inclusion in the EEA, it voluntarily accedes to about 75% of EU law and pays a financial contribution on par with EU members. Canada and the U.S. have been negotiating their trade agreements with the EU for years, and there are still sticking points remaining about how much of its own regulation each party will be able to impose on the other. If those deals don't come into effect until after the UK leaves the EU, it will be excluded and will have to negotiate its own deals from scratch.

[rubato]

An unfortunate result. Harmful to us all but mostly the UK who will be smaller, weaker, and poorer. They have given up a position of leadership in the government of Europe to act like Trumpians and put up a wall against scary foreigners. With a stroke they have made Germany and France the two most powerful countries in Europe and themselves an outsider.

Well it is done and I expect we will be seeing the results coming out gradually over the next 25 years.


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

The EU already offered significant concessions and the UK has now slapped them away.

LOL

The so-called "concessions" were such a bad joke that even Cameron didn't try to run on them as a positive in the referendum campaign...

A fact which you yourself seemed to realize just a few months ago:

It was a dog and pony show from the beginning.


1. Cameron wanted to appease the "UK Out" faction (whom he did not agree with) and appear forceful and manly while doing it so he ...

2. Went to the EU made some fake threats about leaving and pounded his little fist on the table and got ...

3. Some minor concessions but they include the ability to punish newly-arrived foreigners which the British really like doing so he could ...

4. Go back to his constituents and pretend that he has changed his mind (back to what it was all along) and recommend staying in the EU.


He knows that he can't actually leave the EU without painful long-term consequences. But now he's entertained the claque with a little play-acting to keep them entertained.

Christ, its like watching the Quebecois whine and moan about leaving Canada.


yrs,
rubato

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=15222&p=193795&hili ... on#p193795

Or is this yet another case of where I fiendishly hacked into your account, wrote something you never said, back-dated it, and inserted it into an old thread?

[Big RR]

I personally wonder if the EU will open up some sort of economic cooperation organization to permit more open trade without the requirement of full membership.

That's what the EEA is supposed to achieve. And it is also negotiating free trade agreements with the U.S. and Canada, so there are models that are already out there. No one is going to cut off their nose to spite their face, but it's not going to be easy or cheap. As the price for Norway's inclusion in the EEA, it voluntarily accedes to about 75% of EU law and pays a financial contribution on par with EU members. Canada and the U.S. have been negotiating their trade agreements with the EU for years, and there are still sticking points remaining about how much of its own regulation each party will be able to impose on the other. If those deals don't come into effect until after the UK leaves the EU, it will be excluded and will have to negotiate its own deals from scratch.

I agree, but I don't know whether this would be available to the UK or not. Personally I think the UK (like the US and Canada) is too big an economy to ignore, and it should be able to negotiate a much better deal than Norway, but it remains to be seen what the EU will offer. A fair trade deal could be in the interest of both, and I imagine could be negotiated before its leaving the EU is completed, but we'll have to see.

Face it, I don't think the EU leadership thought the UK would vote to secede; now that it has, they will have to deal with it. And I'm sure the loss of the UK as a trading partner is pretty scary right now.

[RayThom]

Here's a "cut n' paste" from one of my Brit cousins. There's no joy in the family circle today.
...........................................................................
A big thank you to all those who voted 'Leave' yesterday.
Thanks for plunging the country back into recession
Thanks for flushing my (and your) pensions down the toilet
Thanks for causing us all to wait longer for any future NHS treatment, always assuming it will even be available
Thanks for making the country less secure
Thanks for wiping thousands off the value of peoples homes
Thanks for screwing up peoples holidays

This morning I'm ashamed to be British, but even more ashamed that the British working class have allowed themselves to be conned into willingly ushering in an even more right wing government than the current one, with all the implications that will have for them. I can't believe there are so many xenophobic fuckwits in this country. Still, at least when our pathetic little independent nation (minus Scotland) goes tits up and disappears up it's own arse they won't be able to blame the EU.

[rubato]

Another interesting question is what happens now to the UKIP....

...

The UKIP may very well become the victim of its own success....

The UKIP will be fine, you don't need to worry on their account.

The GOP has so recently proven that xenophobia and hatred of illegal immigrants exists independently of any actual amount of immigration. After 2008 when the net flow was BACK to Mexico GOP politicians were still whipping up anti-Mexican fervor ( leaving the ground well-turned and watered for Trump to come along ).

When it comes to the political gatherings-in and organization of fear you don't need an actual threat just a vivid fantasy.


yrs,
rubato

[BoSoxGal]

Poor kids.