I am more convinced today than I was....

[RayThom]

The Repub problems lie in their dysfunction and failure to connect with voters other than psycho Teabaggers, grey-haired old misogynists, and Grover Norquist ass kissers. And if they, and red Congress, don't start making real changes -- if they are still capable -- they should expect the exact same results in 2016.

Maybe the mess and disarray that the Repugs find themselves can start to turn around with a bit more bipartisanship, and with an honest attempt to steer us away from the looming "fiscal cliff." At least their focus can no longer be to keep Obama from a second term. Will a try at impeachment be their next ploy? Nonetheless, the time is now for positive action. Hopefully the Repugs are finally up for the challenge of simply doing their job.

[Andrew D]

We are headed for the cliff and there is no change in direction. Until we deal with our fundamental problems nothing will really change.

That is the point of the "cliff" and its timing. (It is not really a "cliff" at first; it is more of a slope.) It is designed to force one side or the other to yield. And it is timed for after the election, so that the election will determine which side should yield.

The Democrats won handily. I hope that they will stand up to the Republicans and push us over the cliff. That will do at least two worthwhile things.

First, it will raise taxes on everyone, which will be phenominally unpopular. The Democrats will be able to say "Hey, middle class, we tried to give you a tax cut, but they blocked us from giving you a tax cut unless we added to the deficit and the debt by giving a tax cut to people who are way richer than most of you will ever be." And the Republicans will be stuck saying "Hey, middle class, if you should get a tax cut, then everyone should get a tax cut."

The Republicans' problem is that only 35% of Americans agree with them. The overwhelming majority do not. So if the middle class does not get its tax cut, the overwhelming majority of them will know exactly whom to blame.

Second, it will cut the "defense" budget. Not by anywhere near enough, but it will cut it.

That will be entirely good. The "defense" budget is the most bloated, wasteful, fraud-infested part of the total budget. By far. We ought to cut it by 50%, but we should take whatever cut we can get.

The optimal result would be that right after taxes go up on everyone, (1) we extend the Bush tax cuts to incomes below $250,000; (2) beyond continuing the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for incomes above $250,000, we raise the taxes on those incomes -- recognizing, of course, that the raised taxes apply only to the portions of those incomes which exceed $250,000 -- to reasonable, progressive amounts; and (3) we cut the defense budget so that the combination of (a) extending the Bush tax cuts to incomes below $250,000, (b) raising the taxes on incomes above $250,000 to reasonable and progressive amounts, and (c) cutting the defense budget results in a budget surplus.

All things considered, a very good thing.

[Lord Jim]

I saw on a report on CNN yesterday that on election day, the Obama forces mobilized 110,000 people to door knock and provide poll transportation, and another 200,000 to man phone banks, as well as mounting a very sophisticated "friend to friend" social media campaign to turn out their vote.

That represents a phenomenal ground game, and it really paid off for them.

[rubato]

Yes, some are famous for making predictions, after the fact.

He made them before (and the last election too). And apparently you didn't notice enough to note the fact afterwards.

Late to the dance. The musicians all paid and gone home. And you're reading us the program .

yrs,
rubato

So rather than accept that predictions are worthless until proved true or false, the retard continues to make himself look stupid. Do carry on dear boy, it's your only skill, and role here, after all!

Are you really this purely idiotic?

Predictions are of no value after the event. Before the event they are a guide to what is likely to happen and are a useful means of channeling effort into the right places to prepare for, or to change, the course of events. Predicting SS Sandy was valuable before the event, not at all after.

The accuracy of predictions can only be known for certain afterwards. Training in science,however , allows one to choose between better and worse methodologies. One party does not believe in science and thus uses chicken bones and entrails.

Astonishingly stupid.

There was a very interesting story for the prior two weeks where N Silver would publish his election predictions. The party who rejects science would reject the science of statistical sampling and print articles which were merely insulting about him, he's a liar and so forth. It was hilarious watching the whole thing unfold because if he were merely wrong events were about to reveal it very quickly so that all the bloviating and bitching was obviously driven by fury because their own 'wishful thinkng' was not as good as science.

Some people understand that if you ask people who they are going to vote for in a week they will usually tell you; some are members of the party of fantasy economics.

Hah!

yrs,
rubato

[Long Run]

We are headed for the cliff and there is no change in direction. Until we deal with our fundamental problems nothing will really change.

That is the point of the "cliff" and its timing. (It is not really a "cliff" at first; it is more of a slope.) It is designed to force one side or the other to yield. And it is timed for after the election, so that the election will determine which side should yield.

The Democrats won handily. I hope that they will stand up to the Republicans and push us over the cliff. That will do at least two worthwhile things.

It will push us back into another recession, which is why the stock markets have been so pessimistic since the election -- they are factoring in the risk that things will not change between Obama and Congress. Every investment analyst out there that I've heard (and I hear a lot) is saying the biggest factor holding the economy back is the concern about a lack of government policy, both here in and in Europe. My prediction* is that when they do reach an agreement to at least delay the fiscal cliff, and put in a framework for coming to some sort of compromise, the markets will react strongly positive. *Take it for what it is worth, since I read the POTUS election very wrongly.

[liberty]

I have just learned by email that my company has lost another customer, just great isn't it? Got what I voted for!

[Gob]

Predictions are of no value after the event. Before the event they are a guide to what is likely to happen and are a useful means of channeling effort into the right places to prepare for, or to change, the course of events. Predicting SS Sandy was valuable before the event, not at all after.

He really is dumb isn't he.

You posted that Silver had made predictions. What value were those predictions?

None.

It's only the actuality of the outcome of events, and how accurate his predictions were in light of this, which matter, all else is fantasy.

You posted fantasy, I posted reality, and now you're whining like a slapped ginger step kid, because you were beaten to the punch line.


You then go on to confirm me right;

The accuracy of predictions can only be known for certain afterwards. Training in science,however , allows one to choose between better and worse methodologies. One party does not believe in science and thus uses chicken bones and entrails.

Not only that, but you, for the first time ever, give us an insight into your self -perception;

I'm Astonishingly stupid.

[Guinevere]

We are headed for the cliff and there is no change in direction. Until we deal with our fundamental problems nothing will really change.

That is the point of the "cliff" and its timing. (It is not really a "cliff" at first; it is more of a slope.) It is designed to force one side or the other to yield. And it is timed for after the election, so that the election will determine which side should yield.

The Democrats won handily. I hope that they will stand up to the Republicans and push us over the cliff. That will do at least two worthwhile things.

First, it will raise taxes on everyone, which will be phenominally unpopular. The Democrats will be able to say "Hey, middle class, we tried to give you a tax cut, but they blocked us from giving you a tax cut unless we added to the deficit and the debt by giving a tax cut to people who are way richer than most of you will ever be." And the Republicans will be stuck saying "Hey, middle class, if you should get a tax cut, then everyone should get a tax cut."

The Republicans' problem is that only 35% of Americans agree with them. The overwhelming majority do not. So if the middle class does not get its tax cut, the overwhelming majority of them will know exactly whom to blame.

Second, it will cut the "defense" budget. Not by anywhere near enough, but it will cut it.

That will be entirely good. The "defense" budget is the most bloated, wasteful, fraud-infested part of the total budget. By far. We ought to cut it by 50%, but we should take whatever cut we can get.

The optimal result would be that right after taxes go up on everyone, (1) we extend the Bush tax cuts to incomes below $250,000; (2) beyond continuing the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for incomes above $250,000, we raise the taxes on those incomes -- recognizing, of course, that the raised taxes apply only to the portions of those incomes which exceed $250,000 -- to reasonable, progressive amounts; and (3) we cut the defense budget so that the combination of (a) extending the Bush tax cuts to incomes below $250,000, (b) raising the taxes on incomes above $250,000 to reasonable and progressive amounts, and (c) cutting the defense budget results in a budget surplus.

All things considered, a very good thing.

It will also raise a boatload of money while protecting Medicare and social security. I'm in no hurry to stop falling.

[Guinevere]

I saw on a report on CNN yesterday that on election day, the Obama forces mobilized 110,000 people to door knock and provide poll transportation, and another 200,000 to man phone banks, as well as mounting a very sophisticated "friend to friend" social media campaign to turn out their vote.

That represents a phenomenal ground game, and it really paid off for them.

Thank Howard Dean for getting it all rolling.

[rubato]

"...

It will push us back into another recession, which is why the stock markets have been so pessimistic since the election -- they are factoring in the risk that things will not change between Obama and Congress. Every investment analyst out there that I've heard (and I hear a lot) is saying the biggest factor holding the economy back is the concern about a lack of government policy, both here in and in Europe. My prediction* is that when they do reach an agreement to at least delay the fiscal cliff, and put in a framework for coming to some sort of compromise, the markets will react strongly positive. *Take it for what it is worth, since I read the POTUS election very wrongly.

We would certainly be pushed back into a recession if we followed the Republican policies of austerity and still more tax breaks for the rich.

This has already been proven by the fact that all of the countries who have followed that advice have gone into a double-dip recession or never pulled out of the first one.

Try to connect with reality?



yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

Interesting BBC article on the way the predictions were made; "Nerds 1 Pundits 0"