Kicking a man when he's down.

[Gob]

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced plans to call a snap general election on 8 June.



She said Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership following the EU referendum.

Explaining the decision, Mrs May said: "The country is coming together but Westminster is not."

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said his party wanted the election, calling it a chance to get a government that puts "the majority first".

The prime minister will refuse to take part in televised leader debates ahead of the vote, Number 10 sources said.

Mr Corbyn said Mrs May should not be "dodging" a head-to-head encounter, and the Lib Dems urged broadcasters to "empty-chair" the prime minister - hold a debate without her.

Theresa May has opened up a 37 point gap over Jeremy Corbyn as more than half of British voters think she would make a better Prime Minister than her Labour rival, according to a new poll.

Analysis of the impact of Brexit by former Tory donor Lord Ashcroft found that 55 per cent of the poll of more than 10,000 UK adult respondents believe the current Prime Minister is the best choice for the role compared to 18 per cent who favour Mr Corbyn;,

In a further blow to the Labour leader, only 38 per cent of his party’s supporters would prefer him in Downing St, compared to 29 per cent who believe Ms May is more suited to the job. 33 per cent said they do not know.

[dales]

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said his party wanted the election, calling it a chance to get a government that puts "the majority first" makes America great.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Corblimey will make the trains run on time to the gulag. With no seats so that more of the formerly-disadvantaged can be crammed into the cattle cars.

[Lord Jim]

You mean the leader of the British government can call an election anytime they want to just so they can take advantage of their popularity at the moment?

Your system is fucking nuts...

[oldr_n_wsr]

You mean the leader of the British government can call an election anytime they want to just so they can take advantage of their popularity at the moment?

Your system is fucking nuts...

Where have I heard that before!?!?!?

[Lord Jim]

Where have I heard that before!?!?!?

I read it somewhere; seemed appropriate...


It does however seem like a pretty smart move:

General Election 2017: Theresa May heads for landslide victory

Theresa May is on course to win a majority of more than 100 in a June snap election as Labour’s pro-Brexit voters desert Jeremy Corbyn, according to new polling data for The Times.

The prime minister ripped up her promise not to hold an election before 2020 yesterday. In a surprise announcement on the steps of Downing Street, she urged voters to hand her a Brexit mandate before formal talks with Brussels began.

The pound surged to a six-month high as the markets bet on the prospect of a softer Brexit, with experts claiming that a bigger majority would leave Mrs May less exposed to “right-wing factions” within her party. The pound’s high drove down the FTSE 100 share index.

Today Mrs May will launch a seven-week campaign with an attack on Mr Corbyn’s leadership at prime minister’s questions before a Commons vote that clears the way for a general election on June 8. Britain’s third national poll in as many years looks certain to bring a political realignment. Last night Tony Blair called on voters to “cross party lines” to stop a hard Brexit.

Mrs May pitched her message to disaffected Labour voters as she asked them to increase her working majority of 17. “Our opponents believe, because the government’s majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change,” she said outside No 10.

Without a snap election, Mrs May said that “political game-playing” in Westminster would continue, with EU negotiations reaching their “most difficult stage” in the run-up to the previously scheduled 2020 vote. “Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit, and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country,” she said. The period before formal talks offered a “one-off” chance to settle the country’s future, she added.

The prime minister ripped up her promise not to hold an election before 2020 yesterday. In a surprise announcement on the steps of Downing Street, she urged voters to hand her a Brexit mandate before formal talks with Brussels began.

The pound surged to a six-month high as the markets bet on the prospect of a softer Brexit, with experts claiming that a bigger majority would leave Mrs May less exposed to “right-wing factions” within her party. The pound’s high drove down the FTSE 100 share index.

Today Mrs May will launch a seven-week campaign with an attack on Mr Corbyn’s leadership at prime minister’s questions before a Commons vote that clears the way for a general election on June 8. Britain’s third national poll in as many years looks certain to bring a political realignment. Last night Tony Blair called on voters to “cross party lines” to stop a hard Brexit.

Mrs May pitched her message to disaffected Labour voters as she asked them to increase her working majority of 17. “Our opponents believe, because the government’s majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change,” she said outside No 10.

Without a snap election, Mrs May said that “political game-playing” in Westminster would continue, with EU negotiations reaching their “most difficult stage” in the run-up to the previously scheduled 2020 vote. “Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit, and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country,” she said. The period before formal talks offered a “one-off” chance to settle the country’s future, she added.

Mrs May will receive an early boost today, with YouGov polling data for The Times suggesting that the Tories are doing better in Labour seats that voted Leave than the national average. Polls conducted this month put the Conservatives on an aggregate of 43 per cent, Labour on 24, the Liberal Democrats on 11 and Ukip on 10. Assuming a uniform national swing, the Tories would have 382 seats, Labour 179, the Lib Dems 10, the SNP 56, and others 23, giving the government a majority of 114, [This would be the largest Tory majority since the snap election Margaret Thatcher called in 1983 produced 393 seats]according to Anthony Wells, of YouGov.

John Curtice, another elections expert, said that Mrs May’s ambitions of achieving a three-figure majority would quickly melt if the Tories’ polling lead were cut to single figures, however. “An awful lot of Labour seats are astonishingly safe and therefore even with a 15-point lead ... I think Theresa May at that point will get past the 100 majority mark.

“But let’s just imagine that the lead falls back to seven, eight, nine, ten points — back in 2015, a seven-point lead over Labour was only enough to get a majority of 12 and that was only achieved by winning a lot of seats off the Liberal Democrats.”

A 5,000-strong surge in Lib Dem membership yesterday fuelled jitters among Tory MPs in seats that voted Remain in last year’s Brexit referendum. Tim Farron, the party’s leader, urged voters to take the chance to “change the direction of your country”.

Mr Blair called on voters to put questions of Britain’s relationship with the EU before party affiliation as they chose their MP. He appeared to back the election, saying that holding off would have been an “extraordinary act of political self-denial” by Mrs May.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/wo ... bf0e6b5536

She will certainly be hit by charges of political opportunism, but so was Thatcher in '83, and it didn't do much damage. Plus May starts with very high personal popularity, and she has an arguable point for holding the election; that she needs a larger majority to better manage Brexit on behalf of the country.

There's another strong analogy to the 1983 snap election...

At that time the Labour Party was also deeply divided, with a far-left gadfly Party Leader (Michael Foot) who the overwhelming majority of Brits did not see as a plausible Prime Minister...

If anything, Corbyn is an even weaker position, with the not only the rank-and-file divided but with almost the whole party political establishment despising him...

There's not going to be a lot of energy and enthusiam within the party apparatus to try and turn out a big Labour vote to make him Prime Minister...

I don't know if May will hit the 100 seat majority mark, but its very tough see how she wont wind up with a much more robust majority then she has now...

[Gob]

You mean the leader of the British government can call an election anytime they want to just so they can take advantage of their popularity at the moment?

Your system is fucking nuts...

Not quite old bean, but full marks for effort.

The conditions for when a snap election can be called have been significantly restricted by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 to occasions when the government loses a confidence motion, or when a 2/3 majority of MPs vote in favour.

[Lord Jim]

MPs approved Theresa May's plan for a snap election on June 8 in a Commons vote on Wednesday afternoon

Commons backed the poll by 522 votes to 13, formally firing the starting pistol on the election campaign

The Prime Minister urged MPs to "put our fate in the hands of the people"

Mrs May ruled out taking part in televised general election debates

George Osborne announced he is quitting as an MP

MPs have overwhelmingly backed Theresa May’s plan to hold a snap general election on June 8 paving the way for the campaign to begin in earnest.

The House of Commons voted in favour of the poll by 522 votes to just 13 as the Prime Minister urged MPs to “trust the people”.

Mrs May needed to secure at least a two-thirds majority of MPs to make her plan a reality and with the support of Liberal Democrats and Labour she was easily able to pass the 434 votes required as the SNP abstained.

Okay, I can understand the Lib Dems voting for this, (I mean, what do they have to lose?) but The Labour Party?

LMAO

This is like the turkeys voting for an early Thanksgiving....

The only thing I can figure, is that they must be sooo desperate to be rid of Corbyn, that they'll even volunteer for a general election shellacking to force him out...

[Gob]

Could be VERY bad for British politics this. If Jezza gets creamed, I can see the Labour party splitting into two parties, (or more even,) with hard left and Blarite schisms.

The Limp Dems are;

[Scooter]

Okay, I can understand the Lib Dems voting for this, (I mean, what do they have to lose?) but The Labour Party?MAO

Labour is the Official Opposition i.e. a government in waiting whose existence is predicated on claiming to be able to do a better job than the current governrment, and of being able to take over should the government fall. This was a straight up no confidence motion, to have voted against it is to admit that the government is doing a good job. They might have been able to rationalize supporting a budget to avoid triggering no confidence, but as our Liberal Party learned in 2008-2011, there are limits before you start looking like you're not up for the job.

[Lord Jim]

looking like you're not up for the job.

Surely the Labour Party must be used to that by now...

In any event, having voted to provide the margin needed in Commons to bring on this election, looking like they're "not up for the job" will most likely no longer be a concern for dozens of current Labour MPs...

Since they will no longer have a job to look like they're not up to:

Labour facing election wipeout as polls suggest Tory majority of up to 150

By Gordon Rayner, Political Editor Steven Swinford, Deputy Political Editor

25 April 2017 • 12:02am

Labour face electoral wipeout under Jeremy Corbyn after new polls put the Conservatives on course for a historic Commons majority of up to 150 seats.

The Tories have surged so far ahead that they could win 65 seats from Labour in England and Wales, as well as up to 12 seats in Scotland, according to a new series of polls.

Theresa May could also rewrite the electoral record books by winning the most seats in Wales for the first time since the 1850s.

If the polls were repeated on June 8, it would put the Conservatives on course for around 400 seats, with Labour reduced to around 160, reversing the state of the parties after Labour’s modern-day record majority of 179 after the 1997 landslide.

It confirms Labour’s worst fears that Jeremy Corbyn’s disastrous poll ratings, combined with Mrs May’s growing popularity, particularly with working class women, will lead to a doomsday scenario for Labour at the snap election.

It comes as Theresa May urges Labour voters to abandon “tribal politics” and consider “the future” when casting their vote, as she tries to steer the agenda back to Brexit.

On Tuesday Mrs May will visit South Wales, deep in Labour’s heartlands. In an article for the Western Mail, she tells Welsh voters - who backed Leave in the EU referendum - that she alone can deliver the “strong and stable leadership” needed to “see us through Brexit and beyond”.

An ITV Wales/YouGov poll has put the Tories on 40 per cent in Wales to Labour’s 30 per cent, which would give the Conservatives 21 seats in Wales to Labour’s 15. Labour has won the most seats in Wales at every election since 1922, and the Conservatives have not won overall in the principality since they were fighting the Whigs during the early Victorian era.

While the Conservative hierarchy has warned against complacency and pointed out that polling has proved unreliable in recent elections, [yes, the polls have underestimated Conservative strength] results in Wales have followed polls much more closely than in other parts of the country.

The Conservatives are expected to benefit from a collapse in support for Ukip in Wales, down in polling from 13 per cent to 6 per cent since January, with two thirds of Ukip defectors saying they will vote Tory.

The most eye-catching poll of the day, carried out by ICM for The Guardian, suggested the Conservatives now have a lead of 17 per cent in marginal seats where Labour have a majority of 15 per cent or less.

That would mean Labour losing 65 seats to the Tories, a swing of 130 seats between the two parties.

Martin Boon, of ICM, said the figure should be treated with caution because of a small sample size, but added: “It indicates significant losses for the Labour Party, and puts the Conservatives on course for around 400 seats.”

The Guardian/ICM poll gave the Tories a 21 per cent lead overall, with 48 per cent to Labour’s 27 per cent, in keeping with other recent polls. The Liberal Democrats had 10 per cent and Ukip 7 per cent.

In Scotland, the latest polls have put support for the Conservatives as high as 33 per cent, which would be enough for 12 seats north of the border, including 10 won from the SNP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04 ... ority-150/

I honestly thought that after the election was announced, that the race would start to tighten...

At that time, (about a week ago) the most optimistic poll number I saw had the Tories on a pace to win a majority of 114...

Now it looks like if Labour can hold the losses down to that number they can score it a victory...

But I suspect that even if the Conservatives come into the next Parliament with 400 plus seats that Corbyn still won't resign as Labour Leader...

He didn't resign after Brexit, he didn't resign after the embarrassment of having so little support among his fellow Labour MPs that he couldn't even fill his Shadow Cabinet...

Because of the way the Labour Party has set up its leadership selection process, it's going to take The Jaws Of Life to pry him out...

I think Strop may be right...

After this debacle there may very well be a formal splintering within the Labour Party...

Just as there was back in the 80s when some of the more moderate elements broke off to form the Social Democrat Party...

[Lord Jim]

Some of the polls have shown significant tightening in this race, (though there are questions about the turnout models) but there's no question about who's getting Vladimir Putin's vote...

Here are some of Crazy Corbo's positions that I'm sure warm a cold KGB thug's heart:

Corbyn has been widely criticised, from the anti-war left and others, for his continued stance on Syria, opposing both military and humanitarian intervention, and failing to hold Russia and the Assad regime to account for their mass killings there. Criticisms levelled at both him and the Stop the War Coalition, which he led until 2015.

In October 2016, a number of individuals signed an open letter to Corbyn urging him to take a different line on Syria to date, ie a line that would depart from that taken by StWC.

It urges:

"We ask that you condemn, clearly and specifically, the actions of Assad and Russia in Syria, which have caused the overwhelming majority of civilian deaths and which present the biggest obstacle to any workable solution to the Syrian crisis. We also urge you to lend your wholehearted support to practical measures to support civilians and pressure the regime to end its attacks, such as airdrops of aid to besieged civilians by British military forces."[117]

The United States airstrikes on a Syrian air base in April 2017, in response to the use of chemical weapons by Assad, were opposed by Corbyn, saying it risked "escalating the war in Syria still further". He suggested instead the international community should "reconvene the Geneva peace talks and unrelenting international pressure for a negotiated settlement of the conflict"...


In April 2014, Corbyn wrote an article for the Morning Star attributing the crisis in Ukraine to the actions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He said the "root of the crisis" lay in "the US drive to expand eastwards" and described Russia's actions as "not unprovoked".[122] He has said it "probably was" a mistake to allow former Warsaw Pact countries to join NATO: "NATO expansion and Russian expansion – one leads to the other, and one reflects the other".[122][123]

Corbyn's views on Ukraine, Russia, and NATO were criticised by a number of writers, including Halya Coynash of the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group,[124] Anne Applebaum in The Sunday Times,[125] Ben Judah in The Independent,[126] and Roger Boyes in The Times.[127] Writing for The Daily Telegraph, Edward Lucas saw Corbyn as having a "desire to appease Russia by sacrificing Ukraine" and said that Corbyn's "anti-imperialist sentiments did not stretch to understanding countries such as Ukraine".[128] Lithuanian ambassador Asta Skaisgirytė disagreed with Corbyn's portrayal of NATO, saying her country was not "forced or lured into NATO as part of an American global power grab. We were pounding on the door of the alliance, demanding to be let in".[129]

Corbyn told The Guardian in August 2015: "I am not an admirer or supporter of Putin's foreign policy, or of Russian or anybody else's expansion". Corbyn would like to pull the United Kingdom out of NATO,[130] but has acknowledged that there is not an appetite for it among the public and instead intends to push for NATO to "restrict its role".[131]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political ... emy_Corbyn

Putin has been very consistent in his choice of candidates for leadership in Western countries. He backs those (Like Trump and LePen) who are likely to be the most destabilizing to the Western Alliance, candidates who have the most sympathetic view of him and his policies, and who also have the most ignorant understanding of geo-politicial realities in general.

Jeremy Corbyn fits those criteria to a tee....

The British election is next Thurday; it will be interesting to see if before then there's a sudden publication of thousands of Theresa May and/or Conservative Party emails...

[Gob]

I'm sure Scooter is dying to tell you this, so I will beat him to the punch....

I voted (postal vote) Labour, which may come as a surprise to some.

My reasoning? Three candidates, and I do not believe in not voting as a protest is effective

The Tory, I wrote to and asked if he would vote for a return of fox hunting. He waffled, and blustered, but basically said he would do what the party told him to do, so f*ck him.

The Lib Dem, supports another ballot on Brexit, is a fervent Cornish nationalist, and was caught in the expenses scandal, so he's out.

The only other choice was Labour, so he got the X.

Mind you, there's as much chance of me being voted the next Miss World as there is of Labour winning that seat.

[Scooter]

I said nothing.

Actually I had already forgotten.

[Gob]

Bugger, I could have got away with it.

[Lord Jim]

I voted (postal vote) Labour,

"Спасибо!"

[Lord Jim]

Here's an excellent link for the polling on the election:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/gener ... cker-maps/

There's an interactive graph that you can move with your mouse to see the average of polls for various dates since the campaign began. (The poll average has dropped from a 21 point Conservative lead on April 21st down to about five points now)

Apparently May has run a very lackluster campaign, and Corbyn has for the most part avoided saying anything incredibly stupid...

It's tough to know how the recent terrorist attacks are going to impact the vote...

On the one hand, before becoming PM May was Home Secretary (the equivalent of Sec. of Homeland Security in the US) so you would think the attacks would be damaging to the Conservatives...

One the other hand, you know, Corbyn....

One thing that might help the Tories is that Corbyn is strongest among the youngest voters, who traditionally don't turn out in high percentages on election day. Depending on the turnout models used the polls are very divergent:

The latest poll from YouGov has the Tory lead at just four points over Labour, while ICM has it standing at 11 points

There's still the possibility of a Conservative landslide, (at least in terms of number of seats) but it could also go right down to the wire...

[Gob]

I'm betting on it not changing drastically from the current situation, with the Tories having a working majority in the 10-12 range.

The Lib dems will gain 2-3 seats, and Labour will stand virtually still.

[Scooter]

We'll see if May's pledge to rip up any human rights legislation that interferes with implementing her Trumpian vision of a security state will get her any traction.

[Gob]

Speaking after the London attack, Mrs May said "enough is enough" and that "things need to change" in the terror fight.

"I mean longer prison sentences for those convicted of terrorist offences. I mean making it easier for the authorities to deport foreign terrorist suspects back to their own countries. And I mean doing more to restrict the freedom and movements of terrorist suspects when we have enough evidence to know they are a threat, but not enough evidence to prosecute them in full in court.

And if our human rights laws get in the way of doing it, we will change the law so we can do it"

In an interview with The Sun, Mrs May said she would also consider extending the time suspects can be held without charge to 28 days, after it was reduced to 14 days in 2011 under the coalition."

I see nowt there to disagree with in the present climate, it's probably a winner for her.