Obi-Wan Kenobi is Dead, Vader Says

[Sue U]

I dunno, it all sounds kinda suspicious to me. Why won't he show us holograms of the body?

[Gob]

Did they get his birth certificate?

[Gob]

Yes, one in five likely voters believe that Osama bin Laden is not dead. To be fair, 81 percent believe the uber-terrorist is dead, 11 percent have doubts that he is dead, and 8 percent are not sure — doubtful, to a degree, of the Obama administration’s official report.

Just who are these doubters? They tend to be Republicans (25 percent), those born between 1964 and 1978 (24 percent), born-again non-Catholics (28 percent), those without a college degree (25 percent), conservatives (25 percent), residents of rural areas (24 percent), those without a passport (26 percent), weekly WalMart shoppers (31 percent), those who attend a place of worship (25 percent), voters most likely to be inclined to support a tea-party-backed candidate (32 percent), and people who have gone without food for 24 hours at a time because of a lack of money or food (52 percent).

All in all, an intriguing coalition of groups most likely to doubt anything government says (Generation X or Nikes, as I call them), voters who tilt Republican and conservative, and just the plain angry. I am not sure that releasing the photographs of a dead bin Laden will satisfy their doubts, however under a microscope, the pictures might reveal the identity of the second gunman on the grassy knoll.

http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/05/11 ... ber-zogby/

[Lord Jim]

Zogby is a well respected pollster, but I think he's making too much of most of these differentials....

The overall margin of error for the poll is 2.1% (I found that on his site) but I couldn't find the margin of error for the breakdown by groups, (which is always higher, since the samplings are much smaller)

Except for three of the sub groups mentioned; "walmart shoppers" "those likely to back tea party candidates" and "those who haven't eaten for 24 hours" (which is a very odd sub-group to identify, could easily include people with a lot of mental problems and in any event must be very small relative to the overall poll and therefore have have a pretty high margin of error) all the other groups are at either 24 or 25% which is only 5-6 points higher the 19% sited in the overall numbers.

Depending on the size of the sub group samplings, those differences could easily fall within (or be very close to) the margin of error.

[Scooter]

Unless when he asks "who are the doubters" he is gving the comparative figures for "those who have doubts he is dead" i.e. which would correspond to the 11% and not to the total of those who have doubts plus those who are not sure, in which case the difference is far more stark. And it would not surprise me in the least that the mentioned groups would be twice as likely or more as the general population to have doubts that OBL is dead.

[Lord Jim]

Given the way he wrote this:

11 percent have doubts that he is dead, and 8 percent are not sure — doubtful, to a degree, of the Obama administration’s official report.

[immediately followed by:]

Just who are these doubters?

It seems to me that he pretty clearly intended to lump those two groups together as "doubters", and that he's talking about the 19% figure.

And it would not surprise me in the least that the mentioned groups would be twice as likely or more as the general population to have doubts that OBL is dead.

I'm sure it wouldn't Scooter...

I'm well aware of the fact that most liberals like to believe that conservatives, Republicans, and religious believers are at least twice as likely to be stupid, ignorant or crazy as members of their own group are...

I'd like to see a similar breakdown on those who believe that the Bush Administration was behind 9/11....

My own view is that there are plenty of stupid, ignorant and crazy people spread fairly evenly across the political spectrum and which groups are going to appear to be more stupid, ignorant or crazy depends entirely on what question is being asked.

[loCAtek]

[Scooter]

I'm well aware of the fact that most liberals like to believe that conservatives, Republicans, and religious believers are at least twice as likely to be stupid, ignorant or crazy as members of their own group are...

I don't think it's got anything to do with stupid or crazy, just that there is a core constituency that has such a visceral hatred of Obama that they look for any reason they can to disbelieve whatever he says.

And no, it isn't exclusive to the right - there were a substantial number of people who wouldn't have believed George W. Bush if he said it was raining while they all stood around getting wet.

The only difference I see is that in this case it has less to do with anything he has said or done than with simply who he is.

[dgs49]

To understand any poll, it is necessary to know exactly what was asked. And even knowing that, one can never know how attentive the responder is, or whether they were fully aware of what was asked and intended.

Consider the question: Is there any doubt in your mind whatsoever that OBL is dead?

I'd say 90% would vote YES. We are 90% convinced and don't care enough to pursue the slight possibility that something ain't right. Does that mean that 10% of the respondents are delusional? Hardly.

[Lord Jim]

To understand any poll, it is necessary to know exactly what was asked.

That's a fair point...

Poll questions about abortion are an excellent example of this; depending on how you phrase the questions, you can get vastly different results...

[loCAtek]

Vader comparison to Obama, because they are both black?

[Sean]

Or maybe even... oh, I dunno... humour?

[loCAtek]

Congrats, Nothing gets past you, Seanie-boy! Not even humor disguised as ...humor, well done

[Sean]

What's up Lo? Seriously chuck, you seem to be going through the board a bit aggressively today...

[loCAtek]

It's a joke son, you missed it. ...or maybe my deliver is off, I'll work on that.

[Sean]

I wasn't just referring to this thread Lo...

[loCAtek]

I got that; humor is not an exact science; but a whole 'nother animal, that walks that fine line.



I'd explain that to you, but ...never mind.

[Sean]

I'll take it to your special thread...

[loCAtek]

K, I was asked not to read that

[Gob]

Osama Bin Laden has just broadcast a public message on A Jazira radio to prove he's still alive. He said "Sheffield Wednesday were shit last Saturday."

Intelligence sources have dismissed it saying he could have recorded that any time in the last 5 years!