BBC take on US election issues

[Gob]

With the US emerging from the worst economic downturn for a generation, the election will be in part a referendum on the Democrats' economic policies. But there are also a range of other issues from healthcare to climate change that, polls indicate, will influence which party voters choose in November.

Jobs

Unemployment rates of nearly 10% (9.5% in June) are politically unsustainable in the US - unless the rate begins to fall by November, most analysts expect the Democratic Party to pay heavily. It's unfortunate for them that some battleground states, such as Michigan, Nevada, California and Florida, are among the hardest hit.

Republicans argue that the stimulus and jobs packages passed by Congress have largely failed to create new jobs. Democrats say that without the stimulus - and other measures such as the auto-bailout - many more jobs would have been lost. They are also likely to draw attention to successful stimulus projects in their district or state, and to blame Republicans for Congress's failure to ensure uninterrupted payment of long-term unemployment benefits.

Deficit

The vast size of the US deficit - $1.4tn in 2009, or nearly 10% of GDP - is a major concern for voters. Republicans argue that Washington is living beyond its means and jeopardising the prosperity of future generations. Many are still incensed over the $787bn price tag of the stimulus bill. Democrats say they did what was necessary to combat a recession handed to them by Republican President George W Bush. But voters are increasingly immune to references to Mr Bush. The deficit is now squarely a Democrat problem.

The Obama administration has proposed reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2015, but has not yet produced a roadmap detailing how to get there. Both parties agree that spending cuts are needed, but neither wants to increase income tax. In fact, both parties favour extending Mr Bush's tax cuts for the middle classes, but are unlikely to agree to this before the November elections.

Healthcare

Much of the healthcare reform package signed into law by President Obama earlier this year has yet to take effect, but it's still an emotive issue. Many Republicans regard it as another example of the Democrats' "big government" philosophy. A growing number, including the Tea Party movement, are pushing for full repeal of the legislation. Elderly people are among the most negative towards the bill, and they are also the most active voters in mid-term elections.

But Democrats are willing to bet that most voters oppose rolling back the ban on insurance companies dropping or denying coverage. From September, insurance companies will not be able to force children off their parents' policies until the age of 26 - one tangible benefit, for some families, that comes just in the run-up to voting day.

Immigration

Since the passage of Arizona's new law cracking down on illegal immigrants, the issue has rarely left the headlines. Many conservatives support Arizona's tough approach, and it has the vociferous endorsement of most Tea Party activists. Polls show the legislation has broad support nationwide.

Mr Obama has taken a different approach, stepping up border patrols, but encouraging Congress to pass legislation that will put many undocumented workers on a path to legal status. His administration has mounted a legal challenge to Arizona's law. Democrats hope the dispute will motivate Hispanics to turn out and vote and galvanise support from the left, particularly the bloggers and activists of the "netroots" community. Both constituencies were critical to Mr Obama's 2008 victory.

Afghanistan

President Obama is facing criticism from both sides. Those to his left disagree with last year's decision to send more troops to Afghanistan and increasingly question the point of US involvement in the country. On the right, senior Republicans, including former rival John McCain, have castigated the president for setting a July 2011 date to begin withdrawing troops. They believe the deadline sends the wrong signals, encouraging insurgents to wait for Americans to leave and sowing doubts among Afghan civilians about America's commitment to their country.

In November, Republicans will seek to make the issue a question of leadership. Democrats will have a tougher time - they have to convince their anti-war flank to stick by the president.

Oil drilling

BP's oil spill hasn't just stained the Gulf coast, it's casting a shadow over national politics too - but Americans have yet to agree on its lessons. For many Democrats, the spill highlights the need for rigorous government oversight of natural resources. Many Republicans direct their anger as much at the government as at BP and are likely to regard the administration's response as incompetent.

Many on the left would like to see offshore drilling banned entirely but this idea is anathema to conservatives. Polls tend to indicate that a majority of voters still support offshore drilling, despite everything. States worst affected by the spill are often those where offshore drilling jobs are concentrated and which will suffer most from Mr Obama's partial offshore drilling moratorium.

Climate change

Politicians do not divide along clear party lines, when it comes to climate change. One major factor is which part of the country they represent. Politicians from rustbelt states - former manufacturing powerhouses such as Ohio and Pennsylvania - are wary of regulation, as are those from coal-mining areas. Politicians elsewhere have to pay take account of voters with a greener outlook, and a growing number of Christian groups concerned about the warming planet.

Both parties agree on the need to improve US energy security, though Republicans are more likely to advocate tapping America's oil, gas and coal deposits than seeking alternative energy sources. Many Republicans are also opposed to pricing carbon emissions, arguing that this would undermine American competitiveness.

Terrorism (National Security)

National security isn't the weakness for Democrats that it once was. President Obama has a few wins under his belt. His administration successfully foiled the Christmas Day and Times Square bomb plots and has apprehended numerous terror suspects.

But Mr Obama's aspiration to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility and try the inmates in American courts still gives rise to arguments. Republicans accuse their opponents of treating dangerous terrorists like common criminals and compromising the safety of Americans at home. Democrats counter that Bush-era policies - such as indefinite detention and so-called enhanced interrogation techniques - were un-American. On this one, polls indicate that the public is leaning toward the Republicans.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10574419

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