A lot of the debate will no doubt look like a Marco Rubio Roast, because every other person on that stage has a huge interest in trying to take him down. The three other "establishment" candidates who are trailing him desperately want to move into his position, Trump wants to make sure he doesn't pass him and hand him his second consecutive defeat, and Cruz doesn't want Rubio leaving him in third place and wrecking his "two man race" narrative...
(the only one who may not get involved in the Rubio bashing is Carson, because he's just not the type...come to think of it Kasich might not either, since he's been moving up in New Hampshire pretty well without engaging in that sort of thing)
So long as Marco doesn't get rattled by the on-slaught (and given his composure to date, there's no reason to think he will be) I doubt it will hurt him much. In Iowa, Cruz and Jeb spent multiple millions in negative ads against him in the closing days of the race, to no effect.
Jeb will probably go on at least through South Carolina regardless of what happens in NH next Tuesday, and there's strong indication that Kasich could also finish well enough (the latest polls have him edging past Cruz into third place) to justify continuing.
The real Dead Man Walking is Chris Christie; despite all the time he's spent, and events he's held in the state, the polls have him dropping back down to around 4%; if that holds on election day, he'll be out. (I'm sure he knows this; I expect him to be the biggest anti-Rubio pit bull tonight.)
Another interesting dynamic of this primary is this:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald ... ond-place/About a third of GOP primary voters said they're still trying to decide whom to support.
That's a huge percentage, (on the Demo side it's about half that) and it's particularly good news for Rubio and Kasich who have the lowest unfavorable ratings, and thus the best chance to grow their support.
It's horrible news for Trumpty, who does extremely poorly with late deciders. Only about 18% of those who decided in the last days who to vote for in Iowa picked Trump...
If you think about it, this makes perfect logical sense. People who decide who to vote for late in the process, (especially in these early nominating contests where the voters really take their participation seriously) are folks who tend to be giving their choice a lot of thoughtful consideration...
The percentage of folks who give their vote a lot of thoughtful consideration who after that process are going to decide to vote for Donald Trump, is always going to be very tiny, by definition. His success model relies on people not thinking. "thoughtful consideration" is like Kryptonite to Trump's candidacy...
at least I got one right:
