This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

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Lord Jim
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This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

Though the liberal mainstream media, since even before the shutdown, has been shouting to the roof tops how much the GOP is being overwhelmingly blamed for this, the poll numbers really haven't reflected that...

I was kind of amused at the way the liberal press was playing this, because the agenda was so blatant. I did a Google search a few days ago for the phrase "government shut down polls blame " It brought up a full page of Subject lines like "Americans Blame GOP" "Republicans Blamed For Shutdown" "Voters Blame GOP", etc, etc....

But in every single case, when I went to the article that was attached to these dire headlines, I discovered the exact same CBS/New York Times poll was the one being cited. In that poll, 44% blamed the GOP, 35% blamed the Dems, and 17% blamed both...

(The only headline I found that did not grossly misstate the actual poll results was for Fox newsman Bret Baier's website which had the headline, "Poll Shows Plurality Blame GOP....

Nice to see somebody was being fair and balanced....)

Then there was another poll that got a lot of play, showing that 70% of Americans disapproved of the way Congressional Republicans were handling the budget crisis...

The day that came out, that number got trumpeted all day long on MSNBC...

It wasn't until I looked the poll up that I discovered that the very same poll also found that 61% disapproved of the way the Democrats on the Hill were handling the crisis and 51% disapproved of Obama's role...

Not exactly ringing endorsements...

I have strongly felt that so long as the poll numbers basically reflected either a fairly closely divided public view about responsibility, or a "pox on both their houses" public mood, it was going to be very tough to break the impasse, because neither side was going to feel the political heat needed to get them to move...And that's the way it's been...

Until yesterday:
NBC/WSJ poll: Shutdown debate damages GOP

The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party’s popularity declining to its lowest level.

By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.

Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll.

And one year until next fall’s midterm elections, American voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled one by eight percentage points (47 percent to 39 percent), up from the Democrats’ three-point advantage last month (46 percent to 43 percent).

What’s more, Obama’s political standing has remained relatively stable since the shutdown, with his approval rating ticking up two points since last month, and with the Democratic Party’s favorability rating declining just three points (from 42 percent to 39 percent).

“If it were not so bad for the country, the results could almost make a Democrat smile,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

“These numbers lead to one inescapable conclusion: The Republicans are not tone deaf; they are stone deaf.”

A ‘boomerang’ effect for the GOP

Yet what is perhaps even more worrisome for the GOP is the “boomerang” effect: As the party has used the shutdown and fiscal fight to campaign against the nation’s health-care law and for limited government, the poll shows those efforts have backfired.

For one thing, the health-care law has become more popular since the shutdown began. Thirty-eight percent see the Affordable Care Act (or “Obamacare”) as a good idea, versus 43 percent who see it as a bad idea – up from 31 percent good idea, 44 percent bad idea last month.[This one really gets me...The roll out of Obamacare has been a complete fiasco, and if the Nuthousers hadn't sucked up all the media oxygen with this idiotic shutdown, that would have been the story dominating the news the past week, and support for Obamacare would probably be tanking...these morons are the best thing that ever happened to Obamacare...]

In addition, 50 percent say they oppose totally eliminating funding for the law, even if it that means a partial shutdown of the government. That’s up from 46 percent who said they opposed that move in a Sept. 2013 CNBC poll.

And by a 52-percent-to-44 percent difference, respondents believe the government should do more to solve problems. Back in June, the public was split, 48 percent to 48 percent, on whether the government should do more or less.

“That is an ideological boomerang,” says McInturff, the GOP pollster. “As the debate has been going on, if there is a break, there is a break against the Republican position.”

Obama’s approval rating ticks up to 47 percent

While the shutdown has wounded the Republican Party, Obama’s overall political standing remains stable in the poll.

Forty-seven percent of Americans approve of his job performance, which is actually up two points from last month (though that’s within the survey’s margin of error).

That’s compared with just 24 percent who approve of congressional Republicans, and 36 percent who approve of congressional Democrats.

Obama – with a 47 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable rating – also is the most popular political figure or institution in the poll, surpassing the Democratic Party (39 percent favorable/40 percent unfavorable); Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas (14 percent favorable/28 percent unfavorable); Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (18 percent favorable/32 percent unfavorable); and House Speaker John Boehner (17 percent favorable/42 percent unfavorable).

At the bottom of the list are the Tea Party (21 percent favorable/47 percent unfavorable) and the Republican Party (24 percent favorable/53 percent unfavorable) – their lowest favorable numbers in the history of the poll.

And 46 percent of respondents say the president, during this budget standoff, has been a strong leader and is standing up for what he believes in, versus 51 percent who believe he’s putting his own political agenda ahead of what’s good for the country.

By comparison, a whopping 70 percent say congressional Republicans are putting politics first.

“Obama comes into the fight in as good of shape as he entered it,” says Hart, the Democratic pollster.

But there is one silver lining for Republicans: By a 43-percent-to-40 percent margin, the public disagrees with Obama’s position that he will not negotiate with the Republicans until they reopen government and raise the debt ceiling.
Economic confidence drops like a rock

Beyond the politics, the poll finds that the government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling have made Americans more pessimistic about the country’s direction and economy.

Just 14 percent believe the nation is headed in the right direction – a 16-point drop from last month. In fact, the last time it reached this level in the NBC/WSJ poll was during the 2008 financial crisis.

In addition, only 17 percent think the U.S. economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is down 10 points from September.


And 63 percent say the budget negotiations between Obama and congressional Republicans have made them less confident about the economy.

“All you can say is – what a waste,” Hart says about the government shutdown and fiscal standoff.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013 ... s-gop?lite

There is not a doubt in my mind that it these poll results that are what is really driving the sudden momentum for a deal...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:47 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Sue U
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Sue U »

The GOP should keep holding out for repeal of Obamacare! Be strong, Teahadists -- stand your ground!!!! No CR, no debt ceiling bill!!!!!!!111!!! Freedumb!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!!!eleventy!!!!.
GAH!

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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

So let's review what these radical randians have managed to achieve:

1.They've tanked the Republican party approval rating to a lower level then the day Richard Nixon resigned from Office.

2.They've made Obamacare more popular (or at least less unpopular) than it has ever been.

3.They've solidified the Democrats behind Obama. The tough guy stance he's been able to play in reaction to the divided and disorganized image projected by the Republicans has energized those in his liberal base who believe he's been too much of a compromiser. (We see evidence of this right here at good ol' Plan B...this view is wrong of course; he didn't start compromising until the Dems lost control of the House; before that he and his Hill allies played steamroller politics...but it's certainly the perception of many in the Liberal base.)

4. They have driven the number of people who think government should be doing "more" rather than "less" up above 50%...

Not exactly a list of results one would think they were hoping for...

But before the Dems start uncorking the champagne and thinking this now means they've got a really strong chance to retake the House next year, they should consider some more numbers:

There are currently 200 Democrats in the House. That means they need a pick up at least 18 seats to retake control of the House...

Laying aside the historical improbability of this happening in the midterm election of a President's second term, (and the fact that a year is several eternities in politics) the Dems are looking at some tough math:

Only 17 GOP seats are held by Republicans in districts that were carried by Obama. This means that even if they won every single one of those, (which they won't, because a number of those seats are held by Republicans who are very popular in their districts on their own, like Peter King...they certainly aren't going to knock Peter King off) they would still come up one seat short...

This means that in order to retake the House they have to win elections in a whole bunch of districts that voted for Mitt Romney...It's not an impossibility, but it's still a tall order.

And even if they pull it off, it still won't represent any great victory for the liberal agenda, since the Democrats who could conceivably win in those districts would be moderates; they'd be a lot like the folks who got swept out in 2010.
Last edited by Lord Jim on Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

The GOP should keep holding out for repeal of Obamacare! Be strong, Teahadists -- stand your ground!!!! No CR, no debt ceiling bill!!!!!!!111!!! Freedumb!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!!!eleventy!!!!.
There's one fella who agrees with you Sue...

Ted Cruz...

I heard him just a little while ago giving a speech at some conservative confab where he said that he believes the House GOP should continue to "stand strong "

Good Ol' Ted...

He's willing to fight to the last GOP House seat.... :roll:

(Of course the folks who hold those seats ain't quite as keen on the suicide Teddy Boy is urging upon them...I saw a report the other day where one conservative GOP House member said that Ted Cruz is less popular in the GOP House caucus then Nancy Pelosi...Sometimes I think Cruz must be a DNC agent... I have a lot more I'd like to say about him; I'll probably post it some time over the weekend...)
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liberty
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by liberty »

Sue U wrote:The GOP should keep holding out for repeal of Obamacare! Be strong, Teahadists -- stand your ground!!!! No CR, no debt ceiling bill!!!!!!!111!!! Freedumb!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!!!eleventy!!!!.
Sue, are you thinking that if the government collapses your dream of a communist state will come true? It would be a great system, right: A system where the government chooses your job and you can’t quit and if you don’t work hard enough to please your boss he can have you sent to a slave labor camp where you can be starved and worked to death.
Soon, I’ll post my farewell message. The end is starting to get close. There are many misconceptions about me, and before I go, to live with my ancestors on the steppes, I want to set the record straight.

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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by liberty »

This stuff really bothers me. If we don’t stabilized the situation it is just matter of time until we fall. We can’t continues to borrow money like we are doing at the moment. I am no where close to being rich but I am willing to pay more taxes. Would you be willing to pay more?
Soon, I’ll post my farewell message. The end is starting to get close. There are many misconceptions about me, and before I go, to live with my ancestors on the steppes, I want to set the record straight.

oldr_n_wsr
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by oldr_n_wsr »

Not really.
We have a pretty big tax load here in NY already. The biggest chunk is the school tax which is over 60% of my property tax which is over $7000 dollars this year (for 1/2 acre). Then sales tax here in suffolk county is 8.63%. Add to that about $4000 NY state income tax for married filing jointly.

As a sidenote on NY taxes, my car is in the shop having it's rear bumper repaired after I was rear ended in August. (totally the driver who hit me's fault) and I have been using a rental for hte past two weeks paid for by insurance. The tax rate on the rental car is near 20%. Don't know if it's by the state, the county or a little of both but it's there. And that is not the insurance crap the rent a car companies always try and get you to buy. It's a tax. I guess it's meant to be one of the "tourist" taxes like the additional 3% they put on top of the regular tax when you rent a motel/hotel room.

The gov on all levels needs to stop spending so much.

liberty
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by liberty »

oldr_n_wsr wrote:Not really.
We have a pretty big tax load here in NY already. The biggest chunk is the school tax which is over 60% of my property tax which is over $7000 dollars this year (for 1/2 acre). Then sales tax here in suffolk county is 8.63%. Add to that about $4000 NY state income tax for married filing jointly.

As a sidenote on NY taxes, my car is in the shop having it's rear bumper repaired after I was rear ended in August. (totally the driver who hit me's fault) and I have been using a rental for hte past two weeks paid for by insurance. The tax rate on the rental car is near 20%. Don't know if it's by the state, the county or a little of both but it's there. And that is not the insurance crap the rent a car companies always try and get you to buy. It's a tax. I guess it's meant to be one of the "tourist" taxes like the additional 3% they put on top of the regular tax when you rent a motel/hotel room.

The gov on all levels needs to stop spending so much.
I won't tell you what my taxes are, but they are not that high and we manage to maintain a state owned socialized medical system that any Louisiana citizen can use and pay according to his income.

What would you cut?
Last edited by liberty on Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Soon, I’ll post my farewell message. The end is starting to get close. There are many misconceptions about me, and before I go, to live with my ancestors on the steppes, I want to set the record straight.

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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

Joe Scarborough had a good line about Ted Cruz this morning...

He said Ted Cruz is like a general who yells "Charge!" and sends his troops into the Battle Of The Little Big Horn...

And then he goes home and makes himself a ham sandwich and sits on his sofa watching re-runs of The Guiding Light....
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Sue U
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Sue U »

Lord Jim wrote:
The GOP should keep holding out for repeal of Obamacare! Be strong, Teahadists -- stand your ground!!!! No CR, no debt ceiling bill!!!!!!!111!!! Freedumb!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!!!eleventy!!!!.
There's one fella who agrees with you Sue...

Ted Cruz...
That is one guy who's really gonna wear out his welcome by 2015. Back to Canuckistan with him!
liberty wrote:
Sue U wrote:The GOP should keep holding out for repeal of Obamacare! Be strong, Teahadists -- stand your ground!!!! No CR, no debt ceiling bill!!!!!!!111!!! Freedumb!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!!!!!eleventy!!!!.
Sue, are you thinking that if the government collapses your dream of a communist state will come true? It would be a great system, right: A system where the government chooses your job and you can’t quit and if you don’t work hard enough to please your boss he can have you sent to a slave labor camp where you can be starved and worked to death.
The government's not going to collapse. The GOP, however, is gonna have to chew off its own leg to get away from the Teabaggers.

Also, I don't dream of a communist state, at least not one with your parade of horribles. I'm a pretty mainstream Marxist.
GAH!

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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

From the article in the OP:
But there is one silver lining for Republicans: By a 43-percent-to-40 percent margin, the public disagrees with Obama’s position that he will not negotiate with the Republicans until they reopen government and raise the debt ceiling.
I think Team Obama may have taken that to heart...

There's been a kind of Kabuki dance that's gone on the past couple of days...

First Paul Ryan has an Op-Ed in the WSJ where he suggests that there could be a clean debt limit bill for a short period of time while other issues are negociated. (A piece that has no mention whatsoever of Obamacare as an issue)

Then the White House signals through Jay Carney that they're open to this approach...(and a number of other Demo pundits and politicos publicly praise Ryan's piece as well )

Then John Boehner announces it as a proposal...

And ever since then, there have been negociations going on literally around the clock at the White House between Administration officials and Congressional leaders and their staffs from both Houses and both parties...

(Which would technically be a violation of Obama's stance that there would be no negociations until the government shutdown was ended...)

ETA:

It may turn out that the one who comes out of this looking the best on the GOP side is Paul Ryan, who had the good sense to stay completely away from the "end Obamacare or we'll shoot the economy in the head" crowd, and who now looks like the guy who may have gotten the ball rolling to end this mess...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Joe Guy
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Joe Guy »

Politicians (polititians?) don't negociate anymore.

They negotiate.

But only when they are forced to do it by terrorists... :D

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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

Joe Guy wrote:Politicians (polititians?) don't negociate anymore.

They negotiate.

But only when they are forced to do it by terrorists... :D
I'm sorry, I've always used the British spelling for that word, Mr. Pendant.... 8-)
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Joe Guy »

I can't help it.

I've always been very pendantic......

oldr_n_wsr
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by oldr_n_wsr »

liberty wrote: I won't tell you what my taxes are, but they are not that high and we manage to maintain a state owned socialized medical system that any Louisiana citizen can use and pay according to his income.

What would you cut?
Locally, the school taxes are the #1 tax that needs to be controlled. The state tried t do that setting a 2% limit on property tax increases per year, but there are so many things exempt from the 2% cap that my school taxes are increasing about 4% this year. My fellow taxpayers usually pass the school budget as it's "for the kids" although this year it first was defeated (and it's almost 8% tax hike) and then passed when they altered it. I think the school board purposely presents a big increase budget first knowing it will be defeated then presents the "real" budget with half the increase and everyone votes for it. I usually vote NO on the school budget as they are out of control. Problem is a lot of the budget contains things like pension and health care payments to the retired teachers and admins. So we are paying for past mistakes.
Teachers have peen paid too much (well over $100k in their final 5-10 years) and given too many perks at the taxpayers expence for years. They seem to getting less now but still too much IMHO.

Another part of my tax bill is the police. They too make well over $100k in their last 10 years on the job and enjoy a great pension and perks upon retirement. Their pension includes overtime pay for their last few years and some of these cops rack in $200k salaries doing a lot of overtime in their pre-retirement years.

Also their retirement should be pushed back. Work 20 years and retire for many local, state and fed workers should stop and put an age when they can retire rather than after so many years of service. Or if you do retire then you don't get nearly as much. There are teachers, cops, municipal workers and city firefighters who retire at 40-something and are set for life. The tax payers end up paying them for 30+ years in retirement. I don't blame the workers who take advantage of this. Heck everyone tries to get the best deal for themselves. But those in charge gave away the store and it is biting many levels of government (and us taxpayers who have to pay the bill) in the ass now.

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Crackpot
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Crackpot »

Sounds sort of like Oakland county. THat place always has a tax surplus because they fund just about everything by special millage. Whatever doesn't pass gets funded by the surplus.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by liberty »

I understand the democrats will not go along with raising the debt ceiling unless the sequester is ended. What the are they thinking; are they crazy?
Soon, I’ll post my farewell message. The end is starting to get close. There are many misconceptions about me, and before I go, to live with my ancestors on the steppes, I want to set the record straight.

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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Econoline »

If this is true (and I'm not sure it is), it's called "negotiations". Isn't that what the Republicans have been asking for all this time? Now that they're getting what they've been asking for, it turns out that they never bothered to look up the definition* of "negotiations" and so never learned that the definition of that word is NOT "One side standing firm while the other side offers concessions."


*Cf., "The Princess Bride" ("You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo Montoya)
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Lord Jim
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Lord Jim »

I understand the democrats will not go along with raising the debt ceiling unless the sequester is ended.
That's a little of an over simplification of what happened...

It looked initially like Harry Reid was jealous of the latest polls showing the GOP getting the lion's share of the blame for this mess, and wanted to make sure that the Democrats got credit too, when he popped up over the weekend and derailed the short term deal Boehner was working out with the White House and suddenly upped the ante saying he wanted to raise the sequester limits before he would sign off on a CR or debt ceiling extension.

It now appears that Harry either thought better of that or that it was just a feint designed to compel a shorter CR extension then was being discussed. After shooting down that deal, he and McConnell started talking on Sunday, and yesterday the two of them made back-to-back kissy faced statements about each other on the Senate floor and now it looks like there will be a package deal passing the Senate that is based loosely on the framework of the Collins Proposal. (A compromise proposal that Susan Collins of Maine and five other GOP Senators and six Democrats put together over the weekend, that Reid also initially rejected.)

Here's where it looks like we are:

Senate leaders within striking distance of deal to end shutdown, raise debt limit

Senate leaders said late Monday that they were closing in on a deal to raise the federal debt limit and end the two-week-old government shutdown, just days before the Treasury Department exhausts its ability to borrow.

The emerging agreement would extend the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority until Feb. 7, reopen the government and fund federal agencies through mid-January, according to aides and lawmakers familiar with the negotiations.

In the meantime, policymakers would launch a new round of talks over broader budget issues in hopes of developing a plan to replace deep automatic spending cuts known as the sequester before Jan. 15. That is when the next round of sequester cuts is scheduled to slice another $20 billion out of agency budgets, primarily from the Pentagon.[the proposed deal would compel the House and Senate Budget Committees to finally go to conference and report an agreement by Dec. 15th, but there's really no mechanism beyond the later deadlines that forces an agreement.]

The framework under consideration includes only minor changes to President Obama’s signature health-care law, falling well short of defunding it or delaying major provisions as conservative Republicans initially sought. Instead, Republicans would get only new safeguards to ensure that people who receive federal subsidies to purchase health insurance under the law are eligible to receive them.
There's more here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html


[Insert obligatory "Your system is screwy/screwed/loopy" comment from Strop here]

(Edited to reflect the full range of Strop's comment choices)
Last edited by Lord Jim on Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:28 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Big RR
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Re: This May Finally End This Sorry Show...

Post by Big RR »

Jim--it looks like the word used in the comment is not "screwy" but "screwed". A very different connotation, although it is blunted by repeated use.

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