I think it would probably be too much to expect Chuck "Where's the camera crew?" Schumer to get beat, but I'm going to be watching the Gillibrand race very closely election night....
Unfortunately the three A List candidates the GOP could have fielded, Peter King, Rudi Giuliani and George Pataki all took a pass....(King I understand; if the GOP takes over the House as now appears extremely likely, he becomes Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee...why give up a safe House seat, and the likelihood of a powerful Committee Chairmanship, to take a chance on becoming a Junior Senator?...As for Giuliani and Pataki...I guess they just didn't want to take the pay cut...)
Had any of those three run, they probably could have beaten Gillibrand fairly easily in the current political environment....
What's left are three virtual unknowns (at least statewide) vying for the GOP nod, which will finally be bestowed this Tuesday....(late primaries obviously work to the advantage of the incumbent)
I've been watching the polling on this race on realclearpolitics.com, and there are some interesting things here...
She has consistently led her no name opponents who have been busy fighting each other by 15 to 20 points in head to head match ups....
That would ordinarily mean that the the race should be moved from "likely Democrat" to "safe Democrat"....
But it hasn't been, and the reason is that while she's had this substantial lead, she has rarely polled over 50% support....
That means there's a lot of undecided out there, and her support is pretty soft....
If, with all these advantages, ( a no name opponent, picked less than two months before election day, in a generally reliable blue state) the GOP manages to pull off an upset here, the chances of a Republican take over of the the Senate go up exponentially, and it will be an early indicator that the Dems are facing not just a "wave", but a tsunami of historical proportions....
If McMahon also pulls off an upset in Connecticut, (a more likely prospect than a New York win) it will be a very long night indeed for the Democrats....
If those two things should both happen, the GOP could easily sweep past the 10 seats they need to regain control of the Senate and pick up 13 or 14....
Aus goes to the polls
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Jim, we have no choice. It works like this: If the party in power fails to fix the problem what ever it happens to be, we have no choice but to vote them out otherwise we have no power unless we wish to take up arms which should always be a last resort. If they do not fear the lost of their position all is lost and we are destined to be their servants instead the other way around.
I expected to be placed in an air force combat position such as security police, forward air control, pararescue or E.O.D. I would have liked dog handler. I had heard about the dog Nemo and was highly impressed. “SFB” is sad I didn’t end up in E.O.D.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Uh...otherwise we have no power unless we wish to take up arms which should always be a last resort.
Yes Lib, I'm with you on that....
Taking up arms should definitely be a last resort....the very last resort....
I have to say that I'm not quite sure how that very sound observation arose from my post....
I was just trying to give my take with a little objective political analysis on the New York Senate race, and its possible indications for trends nationally on election day....
Re: Aus goes to the polls
in a thread on Aussie elections 
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Hey Strop, don't be a Thread Nazi.... 
They go where they go...
I was responding to oldr's comments...(and BTW, I'm very glad to see him posting.)
They go where they go...
I was responding to oldr's comments...(and BTW, I'm very glad to see him posting.)
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: Aus goes to the polls
GLord Jim wrote:Hey Strop, don't be a Thread Nazi....
They go where they go...
I was responding to oldr's comments...(and BTW, I'm very glad to see him posting.)
Thanks LordJim glad to be posting.
Seems you are up on NY politics probably more then I am. As an independent (no party affiliation) I do not get to vote in any primaries. I'll have to wait until wednesday to see who is "chosen" to go on to the main election. Thne the studying begins in ernest to see who is deserving of my vote.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Lord Jim wrote:Uh...otherwise we have no power unless we wish to take up arms which should always be a last resort.
Yes Lib, I'm with you on that....
Taking up arms should definitely be a last resort....the very last resort....
I have to say that I'm not quite sure how that very sound observation arose from my post....
I was just trying to give my take with a little objective political analysis on the New York Senate race, and its possible indications for trends nationally on election day....
It is like this, I was responding to your belief that the Dems are going to lose big. They have to lose otherwise there is no penalty for failure.
I expected to be placed in an air force combat position such as security police, forward air control, pararescue or E.O.D. I would have liked dog handler. I had heard about the dog Nemo and was highly impressed. “SFB” is sad I didn’t end up in E.O.D.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Gob, the same principle works in your country, if you don’t throw bums out, why should they care about you when they can raise their pay take another holiday. Of course I am speaking in very general terms no people are all the same not even politicians, but still we have to punish them all.Gob wrote:in a thread on Aussie elections
Got a question for you Gob about Australia: the US of A is a center right country even though some states are more right or left than others. How do you see Your country? Massachusetts is our most liberal, left, state. I predict Victoria is your most liberal state, am I right?
I expected to be placed in an air force combat position such as security police, forward air control, pararescue or E.O.D. I would have liked dog handler. I had heard about the dog Nemo and was highly impressed. “SFB” is sad I didn’t end up in E.O.D.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
I think it would behoove us all to concentrate on who should WIN, rather than who should lose. Otherwise we may just get a bunch of cretins in COngress--come to think of it, that's why we have som any now. I beginning to warm more and more to the libertarian party idea of '"none of the above" as a choice.liberty wrote:Lord Jim wrote:Uh...otherwise we have no power unless we wish to take up arms which should always be a last resort.
Yes Lib, I'm with you on that....
Taking up arms should definitely be a last resort....the very last resort....
I have to say that I'm not quite sure how that very sound observation arose from my post....
I was just trying to give my take with a little objective political analysis on the New York Senate race, and its possible indications for trends nationally on election day....
It is like this, I was responding to your belief that the Dems are going to lose big. They have to lose otherwise there is no penalty for failure.
as to the OP, Gob, do you think a choice like that would work in Australia.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
oldr, I'm beginning to think that Pataki, (though he's not being mentioned in pundit land as such at this point) is gearing up for a possible Presidential run....
All of a sudden after four years out of the limelight, he seems to be showing up on the talking head show circuit on a regular basis...
Since he passed on the senate race, and he doesn't have a book out that he's hawking, that suggests to me that he's testing the waters for a possible run in '12.....
An intelligent, articulate guy with a forceful personality, who managed to get elected to three terms as a Republican Governor in a populous blue state, I think that in many ways he'd make a compelling and formidable candidate....
I suspect he does too....
All of a sudden after four years out of the limelight, he seems to be showing up on the talking head show circuit on a regular basis...
Since he passed on the senate race, and he doesn't have a book out that he's hawking, that suggests to me that he's testing the waters for a possible run in '12.....
An intelligent, articulate guy with a forceful personality, who managed to get elected to three terms as a Republican Governor in a populous blue state, I think that in many ways he'd make a compelling and formidable candidate....
I suspect he does too....
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: Aus goes to the polls
Big RR
Lord Jim]
I am in agreement with you on possibility of a Pataki-Pres run. Last round I thought he was leaning toward a run for pres. He probably would have lost (and hurt his chances for any run in the future) but it might be right this next time. He doesn't suck as far as politicians go, but as usual, I'll have to see who's in the race before I declare anyone getting my vote. He wasn't a terrible governor as far as govenors go.
I have been a supporter of "none of the above" for years. And I think that if "none of the above wins, those candidates who were running should not be allowed to run for any office for 5 years after they lost to "none of the above".I beginning to warm more and more to the libertarian party idea of '"none of the above" as a choice.
Lord Jim]
I am in agreement with you on possibility of a Pataki-Pres run. Last round I thought he was leaning toward a run for pres. He probably would have lost (and hurt his chances for any run in the future) but it might be right this next time. He doesn't suck as far as politicians go, but as usual, I'll have to see who's in the race before I declare anyone getting my vote. He wasn't a terrible governor as far as govenors go.
Re: Aus goes to the polls
He doesn't suck as far as politicians go
He wasn't a terrible governor as far as govenors go.
oldr, if you were looking for a position writing campaign slogans....
I don't think you're gonna get the job...
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: Aus goes to the polls
I call 'em as I seem 'em
Re: Aus goes to the polls
In today's climate those rank as high praise.
I'd bet there are a lot of people right now who are hoping they'll be able to vote for someone who "doesn't suck".
I'd bet there are a lot of people right now who are hoping they'll be able to vote for someone who "doesn't suck".
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Good point....I'd bet there are a lot of people right now who are hoping they'll be able to vote for someone who "doesn't suck".
The call to arms for this election season seems to be:
"Vote For me. Yeah I Suck, But The Other Guy Sucks Even Worse"....
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Reminiscent of that Lousiana governor's race between Edwards and Duke - "vote for the crook, not for the racist" or however those bumper stickers went.
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Sue U
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- Location: Eastern Megalopolis, North America (Midtown)
Re: Aus goes to the polls
That one was a tough choice between time-honored Louisiana traditions.Scooter wrote:Reminiscent of that Lousiana governor's race between Edwards and Duke - "vote for the crook, not for the racist" or however those bumper stickers went.
GAH!
Re: Aus goes to the polls
Ah yes, the Edwards-Duke race...Reminiscent of that Lousiana governor's race between Edwards and Duke -
My nominee for The Worst Electoral Choice For A Major State Wide Office in modern American political history....
Who would you rather have?
The Nazi or the felon?