Well so much for that I guess it was fun while it lasted

[TPFKA@W]

A co-worker who is Aussie born and bred just spent 6 weeks over Christmas and New Years back home down under with her kids. She came back and said the economy is tanking there, the exchange on the Aussie Dollar is now worth $USD 90 cents and sinking.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinio ... 6692359643

Ouch.

[rubato]

Why the gloom? An exchange rate is just an exchange rate.

If the Aus dollar goes down it just helps Aus exports and the Aus tourist industry. It makes imports more expensive so there is some switching to local products.

Aus has done very well, in comparison, since the global recession started. I suspect that this is just a minor dip, not a catastrophe.

yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

Thank god for that! The $Au has been massively over-valued for some time not, going as high as 68p UK, (currently 53p.) Not good for the economy, as Aussie products were to pricey to sell abroad and it was hammering our food exports. If it settles around the 50p / $0.90 US I'll be a lot more happy.

BTW: by: Editorial •From: Herald Sun •August 07, 2013 12:00AM ?

[TPFKA@W]

Yes well the tanking of the Aussie economy has been predicted since 2009 by what I have been reading and confirmed anecdotally for me and when I stuck up this article I thought to myself the first thing Gob will do is point out the date on it.

Thank you for being predictable.

I am glad your system doing a crash and burn is such a relief to you.

[Gob]

It is.

There was a danger, about a year back, that Aus would have to devalue the $Au, as it had got too inflated, and was being snapped up by speculators. The gradual slide back to a more reasonable level will prevent the government having to take radical action. It did mean that the last time we went back to the UK our $1 was only worth 58p, the time before it was buying us 67p. Ah well. Seeing as Aus is a relatively high wage economy compared to the UK we still had an advantage and didn't need to scrimp.

Here's a more current article;

Economic growth is set to steadily climb in the two years ahead, housing investment will accelerate, and mining export volumes will grow strongly as prices fall sharply. Interest rates will remain on hold as the Australian dollar slips to 88 US cents.

Those are chief findings of a moderately set of forecasts assembled by Australia’s leading business economists for their annual forecasting conference.

The Australian economy grew by just 2.6 per cent in the year to June, down from 3.7 per cent a year earlier.

The forecasters expect growth of 2.9 per cent throughout the next calendar year and 3 per cent throughout 2015.

Elected by their peers to the Australian Business Economists executive committee, the 18 forecasters work for big firms including the Macquarie Group, Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and the Westpac, Commonwealth, National Australia and ANZ banks.

Business investment grew at an annual rate of 15.4 per cent in 2012. The panel believes it grew not at all during 2013 and expects it to fall 3.7 per cent in 2014 and 2.5 per cent in 2015.

Dwelling investment is expected to surge. After climbing 4 per cent this year the panel is expecting further growth of 5.7 per cent in 2014 and 4.8 per cent in 2015. It identifies low interest rates, robust population growth and a robust demand for housing as the likely drivers.

Household spending is also forecast to pick up from an estimated growth rate of 2.1 per cent in 2013 to 2.7 per cent in 2014 and 3.1 per cent in 2015. “Consumers are still shackled by prudence, although in recent months there have been some encouraging signs of a loosening of these shackles,” the Committee says in a statement.”

“Low interest rates should also help boost household consumption. Further, households’ balance sheets have strengthened and household wealth has improved.”

Export volumes are set to climb a further 6.6 per cent in 2014 and 7.1 per cent in 2015, while at the same time Australia’s terms of trade fall further, sliding another 4.4 per cent in each of 2014 and 2015.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ ... z2rDBpvYiH

[rubato]

Yes well the tanking of the Aussie economy has been predicted since 2009 by what I have been reading and confirmed anecdotally for me and when I stuck up this article I thought to myself the first thing Gob will do is point out the date on it.

Thank you for being predictable.

I am glad your system doing a crash and burn is such a relief to you.

A prediction that the Aus. economy would 'tank' in 2009 was just wrong. Whoever did that was not able for forsee the future. Aus avoided the global recession (in part) by engaging in Keynsian spending, countries that used austerity have all done the worst.






The things I saw online all said that Aus GDP had grown in 2013 (hence no recession) and were predicted to do so in 2014. I don't see a problem. It is a small country in a larger world and is highly dependent on China buying raw materials but the fact that they can devalue their currency (which Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal cannot) gives them a larger measure of control. If China tanks and cuts imports then they have a problem.



yrs,
rubato

[Long Run]

I have been amazed that even with the pricey Australian dollar, the mass wine companies can make a profit selling a bottle here for $6 U.S. Think about the expenses -- land costs, first world labor costs, facility costs, then shipping, marketing, bottling, government regulation compliance and other overhead costs, then retailer mark-up -- and they can make money selling an okay bottle of wine for $6.

As to the original post, there is a difference between the economy declining and the currency value declining. While economists are notoriously bad at predicting future economic growth, they do not forecast anything close to a recession there. Seems the biggest risk is China's economy cooling off, which would reduce exports to a major purchaser. But then Europe is finally coming out its slump, and the U.S. economic outlook appears better every month (two other significant trading partners), so I wouldn't worry too much about our friends who are enjoying their summer while we freeze our buns here.

[Sue U]

I'm just hoping a declining Aus dollar will finally translate into cheaper prices for lamb (virtually all of which is from Australia in my local supermarkets). Prices spiked sharply about two and a half years ago and haven't come down since.

[oldr_n_wsr]

My sister is raising lambs (for food and wool).

[Sue U]

Is she selling the meat? What's she charging for half and/or whole lamb?

[oldr_n_wsr]

Is she selling the meat? What's she charging for half and/or whole lamb?

I doubt she's selling it but I will ask if she would like to sell some.
She also has a couple (maybe 3) cows. Along with the 6 or more deer my nephew and brother-in-law shoot each season I don't think they ever buy meat.

[rubato]

I have been amazed that even with the pricey Australian dollar, the mass wine companies can make a profit selling a bottle here for $6 U.S. Think about the expenses -- land costs, first world labor costs, facility costs, then shipping, marketing, bottling, government regulation compliance and other overhead costs, then retailer mark-up -- and they can make money selling an okay bottle of wine for $6.

...".

When we lived inPortland I was amazed that apples from New Zealand were priced the same as apples from Hood River or Yakima.

Transoceanic shipping is cheap cheap cheap.

Yrs,
Rubato

[Gob]

Another good effect!!

Once moving to the UK was a well-worn path for many young Australians. Now the numbers arriving on British shores are falling. Kris Griffiths asks why.

The number of Australian working visas issued by the Home Office has more than halved since 2006 to fewer than 15,000, while the ONS reported a drop of almost 10,000 Australians resident in the UK in the year between 2011-12.

For the UK, the repercussions extend much further than having fewer Aussies around to engage in sporting banter. For many enterprises it has meant a slow death.

Antipodean travellers' bible TNT magazine entered administration for a second time in September 2013 and remains bullish about the long-term presence of Australians in the UK. "London will always be a popular place to live for Australians as they use it as a base to explore Europe and beyond," editor Caroline Garnar says.

Several Australian-themed Walkabout pubs have closed, including the chain's famous Shepherd's Bush branch. Also closing their doors were nearby Jumbuck's Aussie Pie Co and The Australia Shop after 18 years' selling imported Australian food products.

Dave Hancocks, manager of Reading's Walkabout outlet, explains the chief reason behind his Australian customers and bar staff evaporating. "It's simply an economic one: Australia's strong growth has continued while the UK has struggled.

"As the Australian dollar is now worth much more, Aussies don't have to work here so much to travel Europe for a summer, after which it's much more tempting to return home where they can easily be paid twice as much for doing the same work."

[Lord Jim]

just spent 6 weeks over Christmas and New Years back home down

Sounds like she must have negociated an Australian vacation plan...

[Daisy]

Is she selling the meat? What's she charging for half and/or whole lamb?

I understand that many Americans don't like lamb.

Over here we have lamb, hogget, and mutton fairly regularly, I do wonder why it isn't popular in the USA?

[Joe Guy]

Over here we have lamb, hogget, and mutton fairly regularly, I do wonder why it isn't popular in the USA?

Because lambs are so cute and fuzzy wuzzy that we'd rather hug them than eat them.

Of course some people take the hugging thing a little too far and that's another reason....

[Lord Jim]

Because lambs are so cute and fuzzy wuzzy that we'd rather hug them than eat them.

I don't have that problem; we eat lamb all the time...(lamb kabobs, lamb stew, leg of lamb, lamb curry, even ground lamb burgers)

I'm also a big fan of "baby cow" (Tati's description for veal; she won't eat it...though she seems to be able to deal with "baby sheep" and "grown up cow" with no problem...) no matter how cute they are...

I find it best not to develop an anthropomorphic attitude towards my meal selections...

[Joe Guy]

I don't have that problem; we eat lamb all the time...(lamb kabobs, lamb stew, leg of lamb, even ground lamb burgers)

You Cro-Magnon beast!! Lambs are for sweaters!!

But seriously, my mother told me she hated lamb because as a child with 5 sisters and 1 brother and parents that didn't earn a lot, they used to eat mutton all of the time and she learned to hate the smell.

I'm also a big fan of "baby cow"...

I like veal too. Veal Parmesan and Scallopini.... But the large majority of the beef we eat doesn't come from a cow. It comes from a steer.

Joe Meade-ster

[Lord Jim]

hogget, and mutton

I had "mutton" once....

I believe that is "grown-up lamb"...(the meat of an adult sheep...)

Tough and stringy as a two dollar steak...

[Lord Jim]

I like veal too. Veal Parmesan and Scallopini.... But the large majority of the beef we eat doesn't come from a cow. It comes from a steer.

Joe Meade-ster

Well, steer or cow, it's never a good idea to assign a moral quality to something you enjoy with sauteed mushrooms and a white wine sauce...