Are They Really Dumb Enough To Do This?

[Lord Jim]

It's starting to look more possible...

A couple of months ago, Scottish independence was losing by more than 20 points; but with the vote just days away, it's really tightened up:

Polls for the Scottish referendum have dramatically narrowed ahead of the September 18 vote.

The No campaign took a six-point lead over the Yes campaign on September 10 when a Survation poll of 1,000 Scots found that 47.6 per cent intend to vote No compared with 42.4 per cent for Yes. When the 10 per cent who said they were still undecided were removed from the equation, the survey suggests that the Better Together campaign would win with a vote of 53 per cent over 47 per cent for the Yes group.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... acker.html

I've got to believe that the British Labour Party must be pouring in resources and pulling out all the stops to bring out the "No" vote. Because if this idiotic independence vote actually prevails the biggest losers, (aside from the Scots themselves, though a sizable number of them don't seem to realize it) will be the rest of the British Left...

Scotland is one of the most hardcore left leaning areas of the UK, if one looks at the numbers:

In the current British Parliament, Scotland has 59 MPs...

Of these 59 MPs, 40 are Labour Party, 11 are Liberal Democrat, 6 are Scottish National Party and 1 (that's... one) is Tory....(there's also one independent)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MP ... 0%E2%80%93

In other words, Scotland is just about as Conservative as Massachusetts and The District Of Columbia combined...

To put the numbers in overall perspective:

The current British Parliament has 650 members...

The breakdown among the major parties is as follows:

Conservative 304
Labour 256
Liberal Democrat 56

With 650 members, it takes 326 to form a working majority. (Currently, the ruling Tory-Liberal coalition have 360)

But if you take out the Scottish delegation, the political center of the rest of Britain moves considerably to the right:

Conservative: 303

Labor: 216

Liberal: 45

Without the 59 members from Scotland, the total in Parliament drops to 591, with 296 needed to form a governing majority. So in theory, in the existing Parliament, the Tories could form a governing majority without the Liberals.

However, despite this potential political windfall, it's my understanding that most Conservatives in the UK ( and here as well; including myself) totally oppose Scottish Independence, because it's an idiotic idea that weakens the country, and benefits no one (least of all the Scots) in the long term.

But while UK Conservatives are opposed to this, the British Left must be shittin' their breeches over the prospect....

[Long Run]

I've long wondered about the politics of this as well. There never would have been a recent Labour PM without Scotland's participation. I think independence is one of those things that sounds good but when the reality is faced, more and more back away from true independence (e.g., Puerto Rico). On the other hand, having independence to implement more socialistic policies in the north might be a prime motivating factor; they have oil money to finance things for awhile.

eta: "recent"

[Lord Jim]

I have to believe that at the end of the day, cooler heads and commonsense will prevail, and the vote will go against independence (though possibly by an uncomfortably small margin..but a win's a win...)

I also suspect that with the polls this close, the Labour Party and its allies will have a massive get out the vote effort on election day...(I sure would if were calling the shots for them)

I have to admit to being somewhat puzzled by how well the support for independence is doing... If 40 plus per cent of the Scots are so keen for independence, then why does The Scottish National Party only have 6 out of 59 seats in The House Of Commons?

[Long Run]

If the separatists win, will they rebuild the wall to keep the English out?

[Gob]

I have to admit to being somewhat puzzled by how well the support for independence is doing... If 40 plus per cent of the Scots are so keen for independence, then why does The Scottish National Party only have 6 out of 59 seats in The House Of Commons?

A lot of the "Yes" crowd are people who once watched Braveheart, but never are sober enough to vote.

[BoSoxGal]

Ireland's done reasonably well - isn't it likely Scotland may do just fine if independent?

It's their country, their choice - no? Drunkard or teetotaler.

It will be interesting to see the results of history being made.

[Gob]

Ireland's done reasonably well - isn't it likely Scotland may do just fine if independent?

Ireland was on the verge of bankruptcy until we bailed it out

Almost one pound in every four injected into the two state-backed banks by the Government has gone directly into the Irish economy, the two lenders' subsidiary accounts show.

Between 2009 and 2011, RBS made "capital contributions" totalling €9.13bn (£7.6bn) to its Dublin-headquartered subsidiary Ulster Bank Ireland. Over the same period, Lloyds transferred £6.41bn to its Irish operation, Bank of Scotland (Ireland), before dissolving the business.

The total – £14bn – amounts to more than a fifth of the £65bn UK taxpayers injected into RBS and Lloyds in 2008 and 2009, and is expected to rise further. Analysts estimate that RBS transferred another £2bn last year.

RBS and Lloyds used the funds to write off billions of pounds of debt loaned to Irish commercial property developers and households in the "Celtic Tiger" boom years.

After the bubble burst, Ireland's banks brought the country to its knees and forced the government into a €67.5bn (£56.5bn) international rescue, including £7bn from the UK Government. Since the financial crisis, Dublin has injected €80bn into its banks and nationalised or part-nationalised six of them.

Yes voters

[TPFKA@W]

Ireland has a broken culture. All they do is drink. Seriously.
Scotland will own all that North Sea oil methinks. That ought to keep them in haggis a while.

[rubato]

Ireland has a broken culture. All they do is drink. Seriously.
... " .

And produce great musicians and writers. Per capita they have a lot of nobelists in literature: Beckett, Yeats, Shaw, Heaney plus a host of others who didn't get a Nobel starting with Joyce.



yrs,
rubato

[Sue U]

All they do is drink. Seriously.

Well, if you're gonna do it, you don't want to take half measures.

[TPFKA@W]

All they do is drink. Seriously.

Well, if you're gonna do it, you don't want to take half measures.

I know some Irish youngsters (early 20's) and actually it is quite depressing. It is literally how they spend every free moment they have. They tell me it starts early, it's their culture and it's what the parents do and so forth. Every social function, every family function they drink until they are senseless.

It's insane.

[Big RR]

However, despite this potential political windfall, it's my understanding that most Conservatives in the UK ( and here as well; including myself) totally oppose Scottish Independence, because it's an idiotic idea that weakens the country, and benefits no one (least of all the Scots) in the long term.

Somehow, I'd bet many in Parliament (especially the conservatives) would have said this about the American colonies in 1776 as well, and that seemed to work out fairly well. I can't speak to most of the issues surrounding Scottish independence as I haven't really followed the debate all that closely, but if they will really have the North sea oil revenues for themselves, it might well work. I usually do share a leaning toward anyone who wants to leave any association, even if some say it will work out disastrously, and trust the public to make the decision.

[oldr_n_wsr]

All they do is drink. Seriously.

Well, if you're gonna do it, you don't want to take half measures.

I know some Irish youngsters (early 20's) and actually it is quite depressing. It is literally how they spend every free moment they have. They tell me it starts early, it's their culture and it's what the parents do and so forth. Every social function, every family function they drink until they are senseless.

It's insane.

I should open a rehab facility there.

[Lord Jim]

Somehow, I'd bet many in Parliament (especially the conservatives) would have said this about the American colonies in 1776 as well, and that seemed to work out fairly well.

Wow, I just don't see any validity to that analogy at all.

America -Britain: separated by 3000 miles of ocean

Scotland-Britain: share contiguous land

America- Britain: No representation in British Parliament

Scotland-Britain: Full representation in British parliament, proportional to population

And on and on and on...

I usually do share a leaning toward anyone who wants to leave any association, even if some say it will work out disastrously

And I generally share a leaning towards "if it ain't broke don't fix it" and not plunging blindly into the unknown...

As for the North Sea oil, from what I've been reading the revenues are down, many of the older fields are becoming depleted, and it's unlikely that an independent Scotland will have the economic wherewithal to provide the tax incentives needed to make development of new fields economically attractive.

[Big RR]

Jim--certainly there are many differences between the US colonies and Scotland, not the least of which is that the US secession/revolution occurred over 200 years ago. I am just saying that MPs, especially conservative ones, would usually think any secession would be a bad idea. Kind of like our own congress (what was left of it) and president did in 1865. I personally can think of a number of American states I'd be happy to see leave the union tomorrow, but I'd bet the majority of the government would oppose it.

As for the North Sea oil revenues, it would be interesting to see how an independent Scotland would handle them; I'd bet it might do quite well, but it's far from a given.

as for "if it ain't broke ...", the very fact that independence is being discussed by people in Scotland shows that, at least to some of them, it IS broke. Independence my not "fix" it, but it's silly to deny anything is broke. The Scot may be "plunging blindly into the unknown", but that's their right (IMHO).

[Lord Jim]

Scotland's largest banks and financial firms will abandon the country for Britain if Scots vote "Yes" to independence on Sept. 18. The news adds to fears that independence could prove to be an economic disaster for Scotland.

Here is the full list of companies that have confirmed plans to leave in the event of a breakup:

Lloyds Banking Group
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)
TSB
Clydesdale
Tesco Bank
Aegon
Standard Life

We will continue to update this list as the story develops so check back in with us for the latest news.

Elsewhere, The Lawyer reports that a leading Scottish law firm is already moving its money out of Scottish banks and the chairman of John Lewis warned that supermarket prices could rise if Scotland goes it alone. Perhaps most seriously for a future independent Scottish government Bob Dudley, the chief executive of BP, warned that a "yes" vote could impact North Sea oil investment plans:

The opportunities today are smaller and more challenging to develop than in the past ... Much of this activity requires fiscal support to be economic, and future long-term investments require fiscal stability and certainty ... As a major investor in Scotland – now and into the future – BP believes that the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom.

The decision by these firms to make their contingency plans public ahead of the vote shows how uncomfortable the industry has become with the prospect of a breakup of the U.K. It also shows just how close people are now expecting the vote to be.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/companie ... z3D7AdsP28

[liberty]

Today Scotland and tomorrow Mississippi after all Mississippi has more of a right to independence than does Scotland. As far a I know Scotland never voted to join the UK. If the Scott's vote for independence, are they traitors to the UK?

But seriously what Europe needs is more unity not less; that would be their best insurance from being swallowed up by Russia someday.

[Big RR]

I imagine they could remain to be a part of a unified Europe without remaining part of the UK.

[Lord Jim]

The current Scottish government has said that they want to be members of both the EU and NATO but in both cases membership would not be automatic; they would have to apply and be approved.

Here's a Q&A about some of the major questions that I found:

Would Scotland automatically be independent after the votes are counted?

The referendum on September 18 is a vote on whether Scotland chooses to be independent. But if the "yes" camp wins, the country isn't immediately independent. According to present plans, March 24, 2016 would be the key date. Various political and economic questions would have to be solved by then.

Would an independent Scotland still be a member of the European Union and NATO?

If Scotland were to secede from the UK, a new state would emerge in the spring of 2016, following a transitional phase. This new state would have to apply to join the EU. The same is true for NATO: Presumably, a new Scottish state would no longer be a part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the transitional phase, but would have to apply for membership. All NATO member states must agree to accept a new applicant.

What does Scottish independence mean for Europe?

Many European states are worried about the referendum. In general, the Scots are viewed as more Europe-friendly than the rest of the UK, so Scotland's split from the UK would strengthen the EU skeptics' camp: If Britain holds a referendum on EU membership as planned in 2017, the four million missing votes from Scotland could be a crucial factor paving the way for a euroskeptic victory.[Well, one benefit for the rest of Britain at least.]

An independent Scotland could also impact independence movements in other countries. Spain and Belgium fear a rise of separatism, and in the United Kingdom, Scottish independence could foreshadow a similar move in the near future by Northern Ireland.

What would an independent Scotland's currency be?

The pound sterling would be Scotland's currency until March 2016. Past that date, London has categorically dismissed a currency union. Scotttish Prime Minister Alex Salmond announced plans to keep the pound as the primary currency all the same - if need be, without British permission. In that case, Scotland would not have a central bank and would not be in a position to print additional money.

Should Scotland join the EU, introducing the euro might well be a condition for membership. Accession candidates must first align their currency with the euro before formally adopting the single currency.

Creating a new currency is another option. Scotland already prints its own Scottish pound notes that are firmly aligned with the British pound. If need be, the government could devalue a currency of its own, and thus influence interest rates to plug potential holes in the budget.

What about the UK's national debt?

The government in London has already signaled it will assume responsibility for the complete national debt if Scotland votes for independence. After an interim phase, Scotland would then be expected to bear a "fair and proportionate share of the UK's current liabilities." Whether that share depends on economic performance or the share of the population is unclear - the former option would certainly be more favorable for Scotland.

http://www.dw.de/if-scotland-votes-yes- ... a-17915022

[MajGenl.Meade]

It has its good points: