The UKIP effect

[Gob]

The UK is to halve to three months the time EU migrants without realistic job prospects can claim benefits.

David Cameron said the "magnetic pull" of UK benefits had to be addressed so people came for the right reasons and the rules "put Britain first".

The prime minister also warned people who are in the UK illegally: "We will find you, we will send you home."

Labour said the PM's rhetoric masked a record of "failure" on immigration and "firm action" was needed.

Ministers have been reluctant to say how many people are likely to be affected by the benefit curbs but have claimed the changes could save £500m over five years.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility distanced itself from the £500m figure, saying it was an estimate that related to a wider package of benefit curbs and compliance checks announced in March's Budget.

The independent watchdog said it had not discussed the latest proposal with ministers or attempted to calculate its likely impact.

[Lord Jim]

I seem to recall a very politically astute and insightful poster around here predicting a while back that things like this would be happening...

Now let me think...

Who was that bright fellow?

[Gob]

The UK Independence Party has gained its first-ever elected MP, with Douglas Carswell taking the seat of Clacton by 12,404 votes.

Mr Carswell, who defected from the Conservatives, knocked his old party, which enjoyed a 12,068 majority at the 2010 election, into second place.

Meanwhile, Labour held on to Heywood and Middleton, Greater Manchester, but UKIP slashed its majority to 617.

Turnout was 51% in Clacton and 36% in Heywood and Middleton.

When Mr Carswell, a Tory MP since 2005, defected, he also resigned as an MP to trigger the by-election in the Essex seaside town.

In his acceptance speech Mr Carswell, who gained 21,113 votes (59.75%) on a 44% swing from the Conservatives, said: "I resigned from parliament to face this election because I answer first, foremost and last to you. You are my boss. I will not let you down.

"To my new party I offer these thoughts: humility when we win, modesty when we are proved right. If we speak with passion, let it always be tempered by compassion.

"We must be a party for all Britain and all Britons: first and second generation as much as every other. Our strength must lie in our breadth.

"If we stay true to that there is nothing that we cannot achieve. Nothing we cannot achieve in Essex and East Anglia, in England and the whole country beyond."

[rubato]

So you want the UK to have two completely different systems of justice. One for natives and one for foreigners? In another thread you deplore that you can't punish foreigners twice for the same crime and here you say that the social obligation ends sooner where the accent begins.


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

here you say that the social obligation ends sooner where the accent begins.


yrs,
rubato

wesw responds to things others have not said, pretends they have said them...

yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

I think the most interesting thing about those two elections isn't the first one, (Carswell had represented that constituency for 10 years, and been elected multiple times. Obviously he's personally popular, no matter what party label he wears. His victory was not unexpected) it's the second one:

Heywood and Middleton by-election: Labour holds off Ukip surge by just 617 votes

The UK Independence Party has come within a few hundred votes of a stunning by-election upset in a result that lays bare Labour's vulnerability to the party in the North.

Nigel Farage's party received more than 11,000 votes in a Labour stronghold where they had almost no electoral holding in what amounted to Ukip's best ever result in a northern England by-election.

Labour hung on to the Heywood and Middleton seat by a little over 600 votes - a fraction of the 6,000 majority they enjoyed in 2010, won after more than a decade in power.

Despite plummeting support for the two governing parties after four years in Coalition, Labour almost lost a seat it has held for decades thanks to a massive surge in support for Ukip.

The party went from winning just 3 per cent of the vote in 2010 to 39 per cent on Thursday, confirming their ability to win thousands of supporters in Labour heartland.

Labour managed to increase it's share of the vote by just one percentage point, despite the Tory vote halving and support for the Liberal Democrats plummeting.

Labour won the seat with 41 per cent - just two points ahead of Ukip, on 39 per cent. The result was so close Ukip ordered a recount to ensure they had not actually won the seat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... votes.html

Both the low turnout and the enormous surge in support for Ukip in a district that has been a Labour stronghold for decades should be a huge wake-up call for the upper-crust Labour types regarding the extent to which they have completely alienated a large chunk of their blue collar voting base.

Without whom they can't possibly win elections; there aren't enough lefty college professors and celebrities to carry a single constituency...

Unquestioning support for the EU may be popular amongst those like to speak French at cocktail parties, but it doesn't cut a lot of ice with the shower-after-work crowd...

And as I've pointed out before, if you look at the Ukip Party Platform, there's a lot of populist stuff in there, even beyond the immigration and national sovereignty issues, that undoubtedly resonates with working class Brits...

The conventional political wisdom has been that basically "A vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour". (That's certainly the line David Cameron has been pushing; I heard him say those exact words recently) The idea being that the vast bulk of Ukip's support comes from Tory voters, so the only constituencies endangered by their appeal are Conservative ones. (And maybe a few held by the Lib Dems)

The closeness of the vote in this bye election demonstrates fairly conclusively that, as is so frequently the case, the "conventional wisdom" ain't necessarily so...

The question now is will the Labour leadership learn the lesson from this and make adjustments accordingly, or will they be too arrogant , hide-bound, and contemptuous of the very people whose support they can't win without to do so.

If the latter turnout to be the case, it won't be just blue constituencies turning purple and yellow in next year's election, but red ones as well.

And frankly, they will have deserved it.

[Scooter]

Oh please, people vote for parties like the UKIP in by-elections because they know they can register a protest without any consequences. A general election is a completely different animal.

[Gob]

Both the low turnout and the enormous surge in support for Ukip in a district that has been a Labour stronghold for decades should be a huge wake-up call for the upper-crust Labour types regarding the extent to which they have completely alienated a large chunk of their blue collar voting base.

I cannot but agree Jim. I have said for a long time now that Labour has lost its way. It used to be the party of the working man, the working class battler, the guy who made the things we sell. Now it's the party of Guardian reading, inner London middle-class-guilt ridden, metrosexual lefties, who are more concerned with equal rights for disabled lesbian single parent Somali immigrants, than any working man.



Oh FFS!!

[wesw]

once again..

[Lord Jim]

Oh please, people vote for parties like the UKIP in by-elections because they know they can register a protest without any consequences. A general election is a completely different animal.

I'm sure that Nigel Farage is hoping that Ed Miliband and Co. will reach the same conclusion...

[Lord Jim]

once again..

[wesw]

just referring to cooter knowing how ukip voters think too...

[Lord Jim]

just referring to cooter knowing how ukip voters think too...

Okay now come on Wes, this is starting to move into the realm of border line trolling...

There was nothing insulting (let alone "hateful") in Scooter's response to my post; he was just expressing a different point of view...His analysis of the meaning of the election results is different than mine; that's what makes horse races...

It would be nice to not have this thread turn into another collection of one liner post exchanges...

We've already got two threads for that...

[wesw]

okay

[Lord Jim]

Thank you

[wesw]

you re welcome

[Gob]

Meanwhile, back on topic...

Nigel Farage has predicted UKIP could hold the balance of power following the next general election after his party gained its first elected MP.

The UKIP leader said his party had momentum after Douglas Carswell won the Clacton by-election by 12,404 votes. He added: "We've got a chance here in a general election next year that is likely to be very tight, in an election in which no one party is likely to have a majority.

If UKIP can keep this momentum going, we could find ourselves next May in a position where we hold the balance of power."

He said UKIP's second place in Heywood and Middleton was "even more significant" than its win in Clacton, saying the party was now the main opposition to Labour in northern cities.

Mr Farage also said he expected more Conservative MPs to join UKIP following the defection of Mr Carswell and Mark Reckless, who has triggered a by-election in Rochester and Strood, Kent.

"I think it would be very surprising if more people did not come across", he said.

Mr Farage, who will campaign in Rochester and Strood on Saturday, said he had also spoken to Labour MPs "frustrated that they are not able to change things in British politics".

[Guinevere]

Hey Jim, how 'bout taking some of your own advice!!!!

[Lord Jim]

Mr Farage, who will campaign in Rochester and Strood on Saturday, said he had also spoken to Labour MPs "frustrated that they are not able to change things in British politics".

It'll be really interesting if he manages to get a Labour MP to cross...

One of the best assets the UKIP has is Farage himself...

He recently had a US visit, and I saw him interviewed a couple of times. (I've also watched some of his interviews and debates on youtube)

It's going to be very hard to portray him as "scary" or "strident"...He has a very affable easy going manner as well as sharp wit ; and he's very quick on his feet...

I don't think there's any question that just in terms of pure political skills and shrewdness, Farage is way ahead of the other three major party leaders...(who pretty much look and sound like they all graduated in the same class at The BBC Newsreader Academy...or perhaps the same Game Show Host School...)

[Lord Jim]

Hey Jim, how 'bout taking some of your own advice!!!!

I don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about, but if you want to derail this thread explaining it to me, and then having me respond, feel free...