Big Night For The GOP

[Lord Jim]

So far the Republicans have 7 certain pickups in the Senate guaranteeing majority control...The Dems have prevailed in only one of the 10 toss up states, and there just barely (New Hampshire)

Two races haven't been called yet, Alaska and the surprise of the night, Virginia...

In Alaska Begich hasn't conceded yet, but with 100% of the precincts reporting Sullivan has an 8,000 vote lead; that's pretty much insurmountable in a recount, so it's a safe bet Alaska will be pick up number eight...

Similar situation in Virginia for the Democrats ; over 99% of the vote counted, Warner has a 12,000 vote lead. Because the difference is less than a percentage point there will be a recount, and even though you have a lot more total vote than in Alaska 12,000 is huge mountain to climb; probably not gonna happen...(The damn Libertarian who drew 53,000 votes probably cost Gillespie the election.)

That leaves Louisiana, where their screwy system had two Republicans running against Landrieu on the general election day. But with Landrieu only drawing 41% of the vote and the election not being determinative for senate control, she's almost certain to be a goner in the Dec. 6th runoff.

So in all likelihood the next senate will be 54-46 Republican...

The party had an even bigger sweep in the governor's races, pretty much running the table with victories in the dozen or so toss up states...

They won every state the Dems had targeted; Walker in Wisconsin, Brownbeck in Kansas, Scott in Florida...

They even won in blue states like Illinois and even bluer Maryland and Massachusetts...

They accomplished this by being smart enough to field moderate-conservative candidates in those states rather than kamikazes marching off a right-wing cliff...

In the House races, The GOP have won 243-175 in the elections that have been called, for a pick up of 12 so far. There are still 17 races outstanding so the final pick up will probably me in the 15-20 range.

The good news for Boehner, the country, (and whether some realize it or not the GOP) is that a lot of these pick ups are bringing in more moderate GOP members, (we've picked up 3 in New York, one in New Hampshire, a pair in Illinois and might pick up more in Maine and California).

Between this and the Tea party candidate defeats in the primaries in some safe districts, the next House will have a larger but slightly more moderate GOP majority. (And a majority that should be more manageable from Boehner's point of view) Of course it will also have a smaller but even more Liberal Democratic minority.

I think there were two primary reasons for the big GOP win last night; and the two reasons were related to each other:

First, they were able to capitalize on wide spread unhappiness with Obama, and make him the central issue. The Democrats were never able to develop an effective counter-punch to this.

But what really put them in the position to capitalize on this is the second reason for last night's victories; the fact that they fielded candidates who were serious minded and ideologically acceptable to the constituencies they ran in.

They didn't try to shove a Richard Murdock down the throats of the voters of Indiana like they did the last time...no "voluntary rape" candidates...

Indeed, most of the boneheaded plays in this election cycle came from Democrats...

Allison Grimes not being able to admit she voted for Obama, Wendy Davis in Texas deciding to run ads focusing on her opponent's being wheel chair bound, Bruce Braley's "Mitt Romney Moment" being caught on video sneering at Iowa farmers at a private fundraiser, Mary Landrieu blaming racism for Obama's unpopularity, (when she desperately needed the votes of people opposed to Obama to win. Calling people racists is a poor way to get their vote.) to name a few...

[rubato]

The last time Republicans controlled the House, Senate ( and WH) they caused the worst economic collapse since the great depression and got us into a trillion-dollar war in Iraq which has been a complete failure.

I can't wait.



yrs,
rubato

[rubato]

Brownback has been a disaster in Kansas; his economic program is a complete failure. All he had to do is lie about it and they re-elected him! This is the anti-science state, right? The state who denies the central organizing theory of all of biology.

Stupid is as stupid does. For a larger example of serial stupidity The South* are the worst-governed states in the country and they keep voting for the same people.

The Blue states need to cut off the welfare stream.

yrs,
rubato

*Right, Kansas is not the south.

[Lord Jim]

[RayThom]

Too many non-thinking, short-sighted, voters out there expect instant gratification. Judging by your post I know where you stand but I know this won't happen, not even two years from now. But by then, not seeing instant change, these same voters will be blaming Congress -- again -- and go Democrat... right at presidential election time. (Remember, the issues weren't so much about Obama as much as it was about Congressional gridlock.)

Say what you will for now but just wait two years. This country is built on labor and labor almost always goes blue (collar) when it matters most. Keep your eyes on Bernie Sanders (currently an Indie,) Jim Webb, Tammi Baldwin and, yes, George Clooney. (His marriage to a strong, Lebanese, woman was brilliant presidential campaign strategy.) I think Hillary will disingenuously yak her way out of the running. This time around she apparently can't even instill fake trust. DIXI

Professor Ray, Poli-Sci

[Econoline]

NOVEMBER 4, 2014
Exit Polls Indicate Nation Suffering from Severe Memory Loss

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Exit polls conducted across the country on Election Day indicate a nation suffering from severe memory loss, those who conducted the polls confirmed Tuesday night.

According to the polls, Americans who cast their votes today had a difficult time remembering events that occurred as recently as six years ago, while many seemed to be solid only on things that have happened in the past ten days.

While experts were unable to explain the epidemic of memory loss that appears to have gripped the nation, interviews with Americans after they cast their votes suggest that their near total obliviousness to anything that happened as recently as October may have influenced their decisions.

“I really think it’s time for a change,”said Carol Foyler, a memory-loss sufferer who cast her vote this morning in Iowa City.“I just feel in my gut that if these people were in charge they’d do a really amazing job with the economy.”

Harland Dorrinson, who voted in Akron, Ohio, and who has no memory of anything that happened before 2013,said his main concern was a terrorist attack on American soil. “I really think we need to put a party in charge that won’t ever let something like that happen,” he said.

In Texas, exit polls showed strong support for George P. Bush, who was running for the Republican nomination for Texas land commissioner.“George Bush sounds like the name of someone who would be really good at running things,”said one voter.

The national exit polls revealed an electorate deeply fearful of a number of threats, including ISIS, Ebola, and, oh, what was that other thing?

[Guinevere]

Gloat all you like, its not going to be an easy next two years. I also don't believe the outcome was as decisive as you characterize.

1. Repubs spent how many million -- $$50MM by recent estimates - to get their senior Senator elected. From Kentucky.

2. The incumbent Dem Senators defeated (Pryor in Arkansas, Hagen in NC, and Udall in Colo) are states that are mostly low hanging fruit for the republicans. Hagan was a 2008 coat-tail win, Pryor was a real loss, Udall I'm still trying to understand - but Colo was a pre-Obama red state. Mostly I believe they pushed aside folks they seemed to think too closely connected to a weak President

3. Voters didn't reject democratic ideas. Minimum wage increases passed in: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska, South Dakota. "Personhood" failed in Colorado. Mandatory prescription birth control coverage passed in Illinois, and paid sick time was passed in Massachusetts.

[Guinevere]

One more point: third parties are here to stay and will make life more complicated for both Democrats and Republicans.

In MA, ME, and VT, the gubernatorial results could have changed if third party candidates did not participate. Here in MA, Evan Falchuk, of the United Independent Party, got the requisite 3% required so that party can appear in primary contests and filed legislative candidates. In ME, the almost winner last time - Cutler - sank like a stone but still got 47,000 votes and the difference there was 24,000 votes. In Vermont, Shumlin, thought to be unassailable, holds a 2,100 vote lead, and the Libertarian got 8500 votes, and there are four "independents" who got another 7300 votes together.

This on the heels of Zephyr Teachout's amazing run for governor of New York, where she flat out won town after town, and only spent 300K to Cuomo's millions.

It could be a very, very interesting next two years.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Minimum wage increases passed in: Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska, South Dakota. "Personhood" failed in Colorado. Mandatory prescription birth control coverage passed in Illinois, and paid sick time was passed in Massachusetts.

Yeah, the mob has finally figured out they can vote themselves money. (The personhood thing seems rather silly to me; probably deserved to fail).

Sorry I'm grumpy because the local library additional levy didn't pass
ETA

[Guinevere]

Oh lookie -- I should write for the Guardian, apparently (I have no idea whether that is good or bad): http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... are_btn_fb

"Republicans didn't win as big as you think they did. And Obama didn't lose"

In the end, there was no Republican wave. Indeed, ideologically it was barely a ripple. Unlike 2010, with the Tea Party, or 2006, when the Democrats took over, there was no all-encompassing agenda or over-arching theme. The Republicans won the US midterms – there’s no denying that – but they didn’t win as big as it first seems.

This election cycle included not only conservative-friendly states but a disproportionate number of competitive states in which incumbent Democrats were stepping down. Democrats have not won Louisiana or Arkansas in a presidential election since 1996, Georgia since 1992 and Alaska since 1964. A Democrat losing in these places is no great surprise. They were low-hanging fruit, and Republicans expended a lot of energy – and even more money – trying to get to it. They were successful. Democrats fared better on Tuesday night than they did in 2010, two years after which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney. States where Democrats fared worse, like Virginia, North Carolina or Florida (in the governor’s race), are swing states that are always in play.

This election was not a referendum on Obama. Or if it was, it was inconclusive. He is as much the president in New Hampshire, where Democrats won a Senate seat, as in Colorado and Georgia, where they lost.

But the midterms were a reflection on Obama’s presidency. His second term has lacked purpose and direction as it has lurched from crisis to crisis, many of which – the NSA, the IRS, White House security – have been self-imposed. Where he has taken a stand, like on gun control after the shootings in Newtown, Connecticut, Obama was unable to achieve legislative change. Where he has not taken a stand, as with immigration reform, he is being punished for it. Polling shows the public actually backs Obama rather than Republicans on key issues, including mending rather than repealing Obamacare, immigration reform, increasing the minimum wage, same-sex marriage and a host of other issues. The problem is few people have any confidence that Obama will actually get any of them done.

Still, 2014 was hardly an endorsement of the Republicans. Red states like Nebraska and Arkansas voted to raise the minimum wage, Alaska and Oregon and Washington DC voted to legalize marijuana, and Washington state voted for a gun control measure. That the GOP has now taken control of the Senate marks a substantial change in terms of leadership but not a particularly consequential one in terms of legislation. The Republicans will emerge with only a small majority, and if the party’s recent experience running the House of Representatives is anything to go by, the GOP is likely to be a dysfunctional caucus – and anything Republicans do come up with that is unpalatable to Democrats, the president still holds a veto. Obama at times has proved himself in negotiations to possess the spine of a jellyfish, but unless he caves, nothing much more will get done this session than during the previous one.

Only this time the excuses will be different. Instead of Democrats blaming House Republicans for refusing to compromise, Republicans will blame Obama for thwarting the will of Congress. “Just because we have a two-party system doesn’t mean we have to be in perpetual conflict,” Mitch McConnell, the presumptive new Senate majority leader, said in his victory speech on Tuesday night. “I think I’ve shown that to be true at critical times in the past. I hope the president gives me the chance to show it again.”

According to a CNN exit poll, 8 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Congress has been handling its job, while almost 6 in 10 are displeased with President Obama. A full 44% have a positive view of Democrats; 40% have a positive view of Republicans. Americans have just elected the party they like the least to run the government body they least trust. Even greater cynicism is the most likely outcome.

On Tuesday night, the electorate wasn’t waving. It was drowning.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Yes, that was well analyzed by you and then by the Grauniad.

[MajGenl.Meade]

And on Yahoo news, a startling conclusion - Hillary won!

Let’s start with the map. Sure, the GOP won a remarkable number of races last night. But take another look. How many purple states did Republicans actually pick up? There was Cory Gardner’s victory in Colorado — more on that later. There was Joni Ernst’s victory in Iowa. And there was Thom Tillis’s victory in North Carolina. The rest of the GOP’s Senate flips (Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia) and gubernatorial flips (Arkansas, Maryland, Illinois, Massachusetts) were in states that won’t really be contested in 2016. The Democrats flipped the governorship of Pennsylvania as well.

The GOP’s relative underperformance in swing states is a problem going forward because the 2016 landscape is a lot less favorable for Republicans than the 2014 landscape was. Sixteen of this year’s 20 contested Senate seats were held by Democrats heading into the election — and six of those Democrats were from states that Obama lost in 2012. This gave Republicans a huge advantage. The map was already red.

But that map will be upended in 2016, when 23 of the 33 seats at stake will be held by Republicans. Six of them will be in states that Obama won in 2008 and 2012 (Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin). Two will be in states Obama won in 2008 (Indiana, North Carolina). Two are held by senators who may be retiring (John McCain in Arizona, Chuck Grassley in Iowa). And two are held by senators who may be running for president, which means they can’t run for re-election (Marco Rubio in Florida, Rand Paul in Kentucky).

In other words, for every Senate seat that Republicans flipped in 2014, there’s one — or more — that’s likely to flip back to the Democrats in 2016. The chances that the GOP will still control the upper chamber of Congress after 2016 are slim.

How does this help Clinton? By giving her an added boost on an electoral playing field that already favors a Democratic presidential nominee. In the last six elections, 18 states (plus Washington, D.C.) have voted for the Democratic candidate every single time.

This means that Clinton, assuming she’s the nominee, will start out with 242 electoral votes in 2016; she’ll need only 28 of the remaining 183 tossups to win the election. To defeat her, the Republican candidate will basically have to run the table in the purple states — “not a game plan with a high probability of success,” according to Republican pollsters Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse. Making matters worse is the fact that Republican senators will already be playing defense in several of these states, attracting additional Democratic attention and resources that will ultimately bolster the candidate at the top of the ticket as well.

The math is just as bad for Republicans — and just as good for Clinton. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of white voters, a higher share than Ronald Reagan's in 1980 and George W. Bush's in 2004. But Romney still lost to Obama. Why? Because America’s minority electorate is growing every year. To hit 50.1 percent in 2016, the Republican nominee will have to win a whopping 64 percent of the white vote on Election Day — or significantly improve the party’s standing among nonwhite voters, especially Hispanics. Otherwise, he or she will lose just like Romney.

[Long Run]

Any analysis that does not have the election being a huge loss and rebuke of Obama is devoid of common sense. The fact that there were many liberal initiatives passed last night, only highlights just how big a defeat this was for Obama. Plenty of liberals showed up to vote, along with everyone else, and the votes went for candidates who oppose Obama.

From my perspective this does not seem to be an endorsement for the Rs since there was precious little policy debate going on in the election. However, they are in substantial control of the legislative side now, and they can either turn the vote into a win by figuring out how to be effective. Or, they can spend their time playing politics and trying to score points.

[MajGenl.Meade]

In which case, both they and we lose....

[RayThom]

Im very found of the Grauniad and thing its a grate sorse of of currant events and knowlege.

[MajGenl.Meade]

British men over 55 were up in arms today following an announcement by the Ministry of Culture that using the phrase ‘The Grauniad’ to describe the newspaper The Guardian was ‘not funny anymore.’

In an unprecedented announcement, Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell released a statement saying:
‘The paper hardly ever has a misprint anymore. Not that it ever had that many anyway. And even if it did, referring to it by calling it The Grauniad stopped being funny round about 1972.’ Planned legislation suggests that there could be a £2000 fine for any man or women using this term (although government research suggests that no woman has ever said it).

John McBride, 58, of Stoke-on-Trent commented: ‘It’s a disgrace. I’ve been calling it The Grauniad for thirty years. My newsagent expects it. Admittedly he doesn’t laugh anymore but then I always put that down to his being from Bangladesh.’ Future bans being proposed following this ruling include anyone saying ‘Scuse I’ instead of ‘excuse me’, or any use, in any context, of the phrase ‘Easy tiger.’

A leader for The Guardian commented: ‘Everyone here agrees that it was high time this joke was laid to rset.’

http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2007/06/02/s ... ymore-114/

[Econoline]

From Guin's Graindau link:

Americans have just elected the party they like the least to run the government body they least trust. Even greater cynicism is the most likely outcome.

That pretty much says it all.

Also too:

From my perspective this does not seem to be an endorsement for the Rs since there was precious little policy debate going on in the election. However, they are in substantial control of the legislative side now, and they can either turn the vote into a win by figuring out how to be effective. Or, they can spend their time playing politics and trying to score points.

And which is more likely? Well...

The Republicans will emerge with only a small majority, and if the party’s recent experience running the House of Representatives is anything to go by, the GOP is likely to be a dysfunctional caucus – and anything Republicans do come up with that is unpalatable to Democrats, the president still holds a veto.

(Same source as the first quote; my emphasis; and I agree, obviously--especially with the sentence I emphasized.)

ETA: Not to mention the fact that the Rs have spent the last four years carefully teaching the Ds that
"majority of the Senate" ≠ "control of the Senate"

[Sue U]

Summary headline:

GOP Win Ensures Two More Years Of Weekly Votes To Repeal Obamacare.

[Econoline]

BEST. PHOTOBOMB. EVER.

News photo: Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) casts his vote Tuesday.

[Guinevere]

The 50 million dollar man. I want to know where alllllllllllll that money came from.