UK election 101

[Lord Jim]

In fact Ray, another heavy Labour district just reported results so they're now ahead 2-0...

Of course these were two Labour strongholds that were counted in their 239 seat projection...

[Lord Jim]

A third heavy Labour district goes...

Labour...

I guess some of the more lefty areas are counting their ballots quicker...(that could be because they have fewer to count...)

What is interesting in these races isn't who won (that was expected ) but the rest of the finishing...

In two of these races, the UKIP actually finished second, and in the other a close third behind the Tories...

But the most interesting thing is where UKIP drew their votes from...

In each case the Tories were only down slightly compared to the last election, (3 or 4 points) while the bottom fell out of the Lib Dem support.... (they went down below a thousand votes in each race)

It looks like in these early cases at least, the UKIP is pulling much more support from Lib Dem voters than from Conservatives, (by a factor of three or four to one) which is somewhat surprising, and contrary to conventional wisdom...

[Lord Jim]

There hasn't been another seat called in a long time...

Must be some slow counting going on...With 647 to go, it's going to be a long night...

[Gob]

I guess some of the more lefty areas are counting their ballots quicker...(that could be because they have fewer to count...)

In some Labour areas they don't count the votes, they weigh them.

[Lord Jim]

New projection on Tory seats...

329, absolute majority

56 of 59 for SNP in Scotland...

The BBC forecast, with well over half of the results now in, is Conservative 329, Labour 233, the Lib Dems eight, the SNP 56, Plaid Cymru three, UKIP two, the Greens one and others 19.

I don't imagine this is making our Miss Daisy a happy camper...

[Reality Bytes]

I'm not a happy camper either Jim - worst possible result for the country 5 more years of watching them steal and sell more of our public assets 5 more years of them privatising the NHS 5 more years of them cutting benefits for the disabled and 5 more years of them expecting third sector agencies to provide statutory services whilst slashing their budgets by 25% or more per year. I am completely disgusted this morning.

[Lord Jim]

Well, I'm sorry you feel that way RB...It looks like the Tories are gaining 3 seats in Wales...

Good old Ed Balls, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, who at the beginning of the election coverage was ridiculing the exit polls and insisting they were wrong, (turns out they were somewhat wrong... they understated the dimensions of the Conservative victory) is now out on his ass, having lost his own constituency...

[Lord Jim]

Markets cheer surprise election win for UK's Cameron

t was too close to call, the pollsters said. But U.K. investors are waking up Friday to a surprise election win for Prime Minister David Cameron, and they like it.

The pound jumped 1% to $1.54 moments after an exit poll predicted Cameron's Conservative Party should be able to remain in office. The currency held its gains through the night in Asian trade as early results reinforced that view.

While the final tally was due later Friday, the prospect of a clear outcome -- rather than days or weeks of uncertainty about who would run the world's fifth biggest economy -- was cheering investors.

Futures markets were indicating a positive start for British stocks when trading begins at 3:00 a.m. ET. Betting agency Ladbrokes said it had suspended betting on who would be next prime minister.

Related: Exit poll predicts gains for Conservatives

Voters appear to have given Cameron credit for Britain's recovery from recession: The U.K. enjoyed the fastest growth of any major developed economy last year, and unemployment has fallen rapidly.

Despite its record of harsh austerity and the promise of more hefty spending cuts to come, voters preferred Cameron's party over left-of-center Labour, which had pledged to raise taxes on the rich and take a tougher approach with some businesses.

"The result projected by the exit poll would be good news for the UK economic outlook," noted Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding. "It averts the risk of a tilt towards leftist policies under a Labour government relying on [Scottish National Party] support."

Stocks that could benefit from a relief rally Friday include power and gas utilities -- Labour wanted to force through price cuts for households -- and banks such as HSBC (HSBC), Barclays (BCS) and Standard Chartered (SCBFF), which were braced for an increase in an annual levy on their assets introduced following the global financial crisis.

Assuming the full results give Cameron another term as prime minister, it won't all be plain sailing.

Investors may quickly refocus on the risk presented by Cameron's commitment to give the British people a vote on whether to leave the European Union.

"Whether or not the Conservatives choose to go into coalition, we will see continuity and stability," said Tim Besley, professor of economics at the London School of Economics. "There is one elephant in the room and that is the EU referendum."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/07/investi ... -reaction/

[Lord Jim]

One funny thing is that due to the complete collapse of the Liberal Democrats, the Labourites actually gained seats in England, but they're down 26 seats overall due to their own complete collapse in Scotland, and seats lost in Wales...

The BBC is also reporting Two Kitchens will be announcing his resignation today...So how did running as a more left wing party work out for you Ed?

[Gob]

UKIP wil be moaning that they get more votes than Scots Nats and the Lb Dems total combined, yet only one seat.

[rubato]

Russians love Putin, UK loves the Conservatives. Democracy; its not always about making things better, its about having them deserve what they get!


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

Yeah, Vladimir Putin, David Cameron...

Two peas in a pod, you can hardly think of one without thinking of the other...

Any day now, Cameron will invade the Republic of Ireland...

[MajGenl.Meade]

Been there. Done that. OK, technically it wasn't the Republic per se but it's the same place.

[wesw]

milliband has a bit of a drinkers nose doesn t he?

[MajGenl.Meade]

Going, Going, Gone

Key Points

Conservatives have Commons majority of 12

David Cameron promises his party will 'govern as a party of one nation'

Ed Miliband quits as Labour leader. Ed Balls loses seat

Labour crushed in Scotland, with SNP winning 56 of 59 seats

Lib Dems routed, big names ousted - Clegg holds seat but resigns as leader

UKIP gets 13% of vote but Nigel Farage quits as leader after missing out on seat

[Lord Jim]

UKIP gets 13% of vote but Nigel Farage quits as leader after missing out on seat

Yes, Farage quit the Leadership post, but he also said that he may run for re-election in September, and I expect he will win it back easily...

The UKIP has nothing to be ashamed of in this vote...(unlike Clegg and Two Kitchens)

They got about 13% of the vote, (one of the few poll descriptions that were accurate) up from less than 3% in 2010, and became the second strongest party in numerous constituencies...and the third largest vote getter in the UK overall...

And Nigel Farage is responsible for that...

I think he'll be re-elected as Leader of the UKIP easily in September...

(What I find really interesting about the UKIP vote is how much of it came from disaffected Labour voters and the Lib Dems...half or more...)

The pressure is now on Mr. Cameron...

He insisted that if The Conservatives won an outright majority (which they now have) that he would bring a vote no later than 2017 in a National Referendum on British membership in the EU...

Well congratulations Mr. Prime Minister, you now have that...

Dave has claimed repeatedly that he wants to negociate a "better deal" within the EU...

He wants to have a vote between "a better deal" that he has negociated, (which in five years he has made no effort to accomplish) and outright withdrawal from The EU...

Mr. Cameron is out of excuses on this; it's time for him to "put up or shut up" on a vote on EU membership...

This election gives him two year's time to make good on his promise...

[Gob]

Russians love Putin, UK loves the Conservatives.
yrs,
rubato

There's dumb, and then there's rubato level dumb.

[Lord Jim]

If Cameron were the equivalent of Putin, Two Kitchens wouldn't be just out of power...

He'd be dead...

[wesw]

I kinda wish ukip had stunned the world and won, just to see rube s reaction.....

[Lord Jim]

Once Cameron puts membership in the EU up to a vote, what is the raison d'etre for the existence of the UKIP?

"Well Mr. Farage, your Party has been all about getting a vote on the EU...."

"You've gotten that now, and you've prevailed..."

What else if anything, do you and your party have to offer?

That's the problem for the UKIP going forward...

Beyond getting Britain out of the EU, (a worthy cause to be sure) they have no sustaining political agenda...

A Party that defines itself solely by what it is against can whip up support and attention for a time, but it can not endure over the long haul...