the state of the union speech...

[Lord Jim]

More proof that Trump is not just a "Republican problem":

Trump Could Win It All

A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."

About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."

Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."

He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

Trump's formidable challenges remain obvious and in no small measure reflect his general style.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/ ... ry-clinton

Also, the Real Clear Politics average of the most recent polls has Hillary's lead over Trump within the margin of error, (44.6 to 42.6) and Trump in the lead in the most recent poll (47-44):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... _race.html

Sanders leads Trump by the same within-the-margin-of-error 2 points...

[wesw]

Balzac....,

[Lord Jim]

The national polls are finally catching up to the closeness of the race in Iowa and New Hampshire on the Democratic side...

Though the polls in those two states have been close for a while, even as recently as December Slick Hillie was still leading The Sandman by 20-30 points nationally...

The most recent poll has the margin down to seven points, 48-41. Another one done a few days ago has it down to 4:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3824.html

It would be interesting to see a new South Carolina primary poll; she's up by nearly forty points in the most recent one listed, but that was a month ago...

It would be interesting to see if the margin has shrunk significantly, reflecting the national drop...

If it has, that could mean that he's finally starting break into the minority vote, which has been his Achilles heel...

Sanders has been mainly the candidate of white, college educated Liberals. After Iowa and New Hampshire, there are a whole slew of states voting where minority voters, (especially African Americans) play a huge role in the Democratic nominating process. The last poll I saw had Hillary up by 86% to 11% among black voters in South Carolina....

When it comes to African Americans, Bernie has been about as popular as a Republican... He can never get the Demo nomination with numbers like that....

The good news for Sanders is that while Hillary's margin among black voters has been huge, in the past it has proven to not be all that firm...

In 2008 she held a good lead among African American voters until Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus...At that point her Black support all but evaporated...

But of course I'm sure that the dynamics for a person of color to leave Hillary in order to vote for a young black man are somewhat different then abandoning her to support an old white guy...

[wesw]

I think that trump is going to burst upon south Carolina. after iowa and new Hampshire, and after he wins the Hispanic vote in Nevada, trump will give an inspiring, American dream, speech to south Carolina. he will invoke dr king and that promissory note which is there to be cashed. he will trash Sharpton and farakan, winning the white vote and the primary, while winning over more and more African americans who will vote for him in the general election.

unfortunately trump is likely to be shot before he takes office. whether it will be a liberal or conservative or muslim who pops a cap in his ass is still a big question.

hopefully he will live thru it....

[Lord Jim]

after he wins the Hispanic vote in Nevada, ...

...winning over more and more African americans who will vote for him in the general election.

[wesw]

you just watch, lord jim, you just watch and see....

mark my words.

I ken a storm is comin'......

[Sue U]

When it comes to African Americans, Bernie has been about as popular as a Republican... He can never get the Demo nomination with numbers like that....

The good news for Sanders is that while Hillary's margin among black voters has been huge, in the past it has proven to not be all that firm...

In 2008 she held a good lead among African American voters until Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus...At that point her Black support all but evaporated...

But of course I'm sure that the dynamics for a person of color to leave Hillary in order to vote for a young black man are somewhat different then abandoning her to support an old white guy...

You obviously haven't been watching Tavis Smiley, Larry Wilmore or Trevor Noah.

[Bicycle Bill]

Nobody called me.  I'd have told them that I wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ himself if he was running on the Republican ticket.
Wonder how they would have classified that in their results?  As an answer to the question, "would you cross party lines and vote for Trump?" I guess it's a no, but I think it should count for more than just a simple "no".

With regards to the quote from Ron Howard,

" ...if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

if Trump does waffle and shift position away from pandering to the Tea-Baggers and the extreme right wing he stands to be seen as a liar, a coward, or worse in their eyes and could lose their support ... unless he then takes a page from Reichsführer Snottie Wanker's playbook on "How To Run Ruin Wisconsin" and immediately turns back to the extreme right and sells the moderates down the river.

-"BB"-

[Lord Jim]

I'd have told them that I wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ himself if he was running on the Republican ticket.
Wonder how they would have classified that in their results? As an answer to the question, "would you cross party lines and vote for Trump?"I guess it's a no, but I think it should count for more than just a simple "no".

I believe that would be classified as a "Hell no" BB...

[Guinevere]

Nobody called me.  I'd have told them that I wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ himself if he was running on the Republican ticket.
Wonder how they would have classified that in their results?  As an answer to the question, "would you cross party lines and vote for Trump?" I guess it's a no, but I think it should count for more than just a simple "no".

With regards to the quote from Ron Howard,

" ...if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

if Trump does waffle and shift position away from pandering to the Tea-Baggers and the extreme right wing he stands to be seen as a liar, a coward, or worse in their eyes and could lose their support ... unless he then takes a page from Reichsführer Snottie Wanker's playbook on "How To Run Ruin Wisconsin" and immediately turns back to the extreme right and sells the moderates down the river.

-"BB"-

In no way is it possible that the Trumpster could ever be anything other than outrageous and ridiculous -- especially when in front of a camera.

[Big RR]

I was thinking the same thing; it's in his genetic makeup. He could no more be a "problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman" than he could be a Martian. He is what he is, warts and not much else.

[Econoline]

He said so himself in that video wes posted (which I didn't watch, though I did watch the Al Wilson video he posted later in the same thread): "You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in".

[Econoline]

Back to the SOTU speech...

[wesw]

paul ryan looks pissed....

[Econoline]

Did you see the actual real Paul Ryan on the actual real SOTU broadcast? He was definitely doing his best Grumpy Cat impersonation, and doing a great job of it!

[RayThom]

Grumpy Cat is on the left. Ryan was so out of sorts that he hardly looked himself.

[MajGenl.Meade]

What's wrong with the Onion and why do we have to keep hearing about its state?

[Big RR]

I always thought he was a pussy.

[Joe Guy]

To me, Ryan didn't look grumpy.

He looked catatonic.