Here's An Interesting Development...

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Lord Jim
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Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by Lord Jim »

Poll shows Gary Johnson in double digits in 3-way race against Clinton, Trump

Libertarian presidential hopeful Gary Johnson, possibly benefiting from dissatisfaction with the two major parties’ front-runners,[ya think?] is in double digits in a potential three-way race, according to a poll released Thursday.

In a three-way contest, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton was at 42 percent, GOP front-runner Donald Trump was at 34 percent, and Mr. Johnson, who is seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination, was at 11 percent, according to the Monmouth University poll.

More than three-quarters of respondents didn’t know enough about Mr. Johnson, the former New Mexico governor and 2012 presidential candidate, to have formed an opinion. Mr. Johnson received more than 1 million votes in 2012 — a record for a Libertarian candidate — which amounted to about 1 percent of the popular vote.

But 40 percent of registered voters said they had a favorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton, compared to 51 percent with an unfavorable one.

Mr. Trump fared even worse, with 30 percent reporting a favorable opinion of him and 60 percent viewing him unfavorably.

“A vigorous third party campaign is a very real possibility this year, but it is not yet clear what the impact could be,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Including Johnson’s name in our polling seems to be more of a placeholder for voters who are not particularly thrilled with either major party choice right now.”

In a head-to-head match-up, Mrs. Clinton had a 10-point lead over Mr. Trump, 48 percent to 38 percent.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... ce-agains/

And something else that will no doubt give Johnson a boost:
William Weld joins Gary Johnson on Libertarian ticket

SALT LAKE CITY -- Seizing new fuel for his appeal to Donald Trump's critics, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has joined forces with another former Republican governor to strengthen his Libertarian presidential bid.

William Weld, who served two terms as the Republican governor of Massachusetts in the 1990s, will announce plans Thursday to seek the Libertarian Party's vice presidential nomination, Johnson confirmed in a Wednesday interview with the Associated Press. The pair met privately in Las Vegas over the weekend when Weld agreed to run as Johnson's running mate in the party's upcoming nominating convention and into the general election.

"We got together and shook hands on it," Johnson told the AP in an interview in Salt Lake City, where his underdog presidential campaign is based. "It brings an enormous amount of credibility to what it is I'm doing. I'm unbelievably flattered by this and humbled."

Johnson is casting himself as the best -- and perhaps only -- alternative to Trump, as the New York billionaire's Republican critics struggle to identify another third-party candidate.

Johnson earned just 1 percent of the national vote during his 2012 presidential run, but reminds reluctant conservatives that he'll likely be the only third-party candidate on the ballot in all 50 states this fall.

Weld, a well-respected former governor in the Northeast, offers Johnson some credibility and badly needed fundraising prowess. The 70-year-old will announce his vice presidential bid in New York on Thursday, Johnson said.

"He could be a huge influence when it comes to fundraising. Huge," said Johnson, whose campaign had only $35,000 in the bank at the end of March. "That was something that he in fact volunteered -- that he enjoys doing it."

Weld was an active fundraiser for 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Like Johnson, Weld has a moderate view on social issues. He favors abortion rights and same-sex marriage. Years after leaving the governor's office in Massachusetts, Weld launched an unsuccessful bid for New York governor as a Republican and a Libertarian.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/william-wel ... an-ticket/

A few observations:

Personally, I can't support Johnson for the same reasons I could never have supported Rand Paul. He supports the repeal of The Patriot Act, he wants to cut defense spending even further, and he even opposes US military involvement in bringing down the ISIS caliphate... All policies that would be disastrous for the country, and as far as I am concerned are completely disqualifying for the Presidency.

That having been said, I thought he got a raw deal being left out of the early GOP debates in 2012. As a former two term governor, he was as much or more qualified then some that participated, and while he polled very low, he didn't poll any lower than others who were included...

Also it has to be said that this ticket, with two popular and successful two term governors, both with track records for vote-getting success and administrative accomplishment, qualifies as "serious" even if I have strong policy disagreements with them. This is not a pair of unqualified, marginal cranks.

(BTW, this is the second recent poll where Johnson has broken into double digits:
What about former Republican governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, who is favored to top the Libertarian Party ticket? He ran in 2012 and received almost one percent of the vote nationally.

The poll finds Johnson garners 10 percent in this hypothetical three-way matchup.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05 ... dates.html)

But the most interesting thing to me about these poll results, is what they say about the "popularity" of Trump and Clinton. You put a guy in the poll with them that 75% of respondents say they don't even know enough about to have an opinion of him, and he still gets 11% of the vote...

If you conducted a poll between Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Rufus T. Firefly, Firefly would probably be in double digits...

But even so, these results are going to help Johnson in several significant ways:

First, it's going to make it more likely that he will continue to be included in additional polls, where given the unlikeablility of the other two candidates, the results are likely to be similar.

This in turn will enable him to get more media attention and raise more money, that will help to further raise his profile.

That, (and the nonstop shit-storm between Trump and Clinton, as they both seek to raise each others negatives even higher) will put him in a better position to raise his poll numbers a bit more...

Perhaps to the 15% level he needs to be included in the fall debates...He's already well within range...

Gary Johnson is not going to be elected President. But while he's not going to get my vote, there's a lot about his candidacy and policy positions that could appeal to a significant chunk of both the "Never Trump" and "Never Hillary" folks.

Given sufficient media exposure and financial resources, combined with the unpopularity of the two major candidates, and the restive nature of the electorate in general, he could garner enough support to become a real factor in the race, and attract the most third party support since Ross Perot.
Last edited by Lord Jim on Sat May 21, 2016 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by Bicycle Bill »

LJ, with regard to Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party (or any other third-party candidate, for that matter):

History has shown us over the past several elections that an independent campaign usually results when a dissatisfied candidate or faction from one party "goes rogue".  This in turn tends to siphon off votes *primarily from within that party* as members of the given party must choose whether to vote for the party's sanctioned nominee or to spurn him and cast their ballot for the 'renegade' — weakening the party base and almost guaranteeing success for the opposing part.  We saw that when George Wallace rallied southern "Dixiecrats" behind him in 1968 (my freshman year in HS and the first year I gave a good god damn about politics in general), drawing votes away from the Democratic candidate George McGovern — although in all honesty Democrats were already feeling the public's dissatisfaction with their policies regarding the escalation of the Vietnam conflict — and ensuring Nixon's victory; jump ahead to 1980 when Democrat John Anderson ran as a third party candidate, splitting the Democrats once again and giving Reagan his landslide win; and then in 1992 when Ross Perot drew Republican votes away from then-incumbent George H.W. Bush and giving Bill Clinton the keys to the White House.

So if Johnson and the Libertarians do mount a significant challenge in this election cycle, I feel — as apparently do you — that it will come as a result of people who have vowed "Anybody But Trump" or "No to Hillary" spurning both of the two major parties and voting for someone who is neither Trump nor Hillary.  I just think that there are more of the first than the second, and we will be addressing the POTUS as "Madame President" after January 2017.
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Long Run
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Re: Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by Long Run »

A lot of people will see this as a safe protest vote, but mainly for Republicans and independents. Those who have hopped on board the Santa Claus Express are not likely to cotton to the fiscal prudence part of the Libertarian message. But it is not out of the realm of possibility that Perot's 19% could be challenged: HRC gets the same as Bill-92 at 43%, Trump gets about 32% and Johnson gets 23%, and there is a scattering of other throwaway votes.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by Lord Jim »

A couple of corrections:
drawing votes away from the Democratic candidate George McGovern
The Democratic nominee in the '68 election was Hubert Humphrey, (McGovern was nominated in '72)...but your point about the Wallace impact on that race is a valid one...(Wallace also drew working class white Democratic votes away from Humphrey outside of the south in states like Michigan)
Democrat John Anderson


Anderson was actually a liberal Republican. He probably drew marginally more votes from Carter, but he also pulled votes from some GOP moderates who were still unhappy about Reagan's challenge to Ford in '76...

In this cycle, while Johnson has a lot of positions on social issues and defense that will draw in some of the Sandersistas and thus pull some votes from Hillary, I agree that net/net he will pull more from Trump...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Sat May 21, 2016 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by Bicycle Bill »

Lord Jim wrote:A couple of corrections:
drawing votes away from the Democratic candidate George McGovern
The Democratic nominee in the '68 election was Hubert Humphrey, (McGovern was nominated in '72)...but your point about the Wallace impact on that race is a valid one...(Wallace also drew working class white Democratic votes away from Humphrey outside of the south in states like Michigan)
Democrat John Anderson


Anderson was actually a liberal Republican. He probably drew marginally more votes from Carter, but he also pulled votes from some GOP moderates who were still unhappy about Reagan's challenge to Ford in '76...

In this cycle, while Johnson has a lot of positions on social issues and defense that will draw in some of the Sandersistas and thus pull some votes from Hillary, net/net he will pull more from Trump...
My bad.  I was working strictly from memory and thought the Wallace campaign was in 1972 (when McGovern was the nominee), since that's when Wallace ended up getting shot; when I realized my error I went back to correct the date but missed changing the reference from McGovern to Humphrey.

And about all I really remember about Anderson in 1980 (personally, I supported Reagan that time around) is that there was a large number of Anderson supporters, buttons, and T-shirts seen on the bicycle ride across Iowa that year.
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Re: Here's An Interesting Development...

Post by rubato »

Vox reported on the new Libertarian ticket a few days ago. Unless they start getting some public exposure and have a compelling message I don't see much effect on anything. They will pick up a few, but very few, democratic votes and rather more GOP votes solidifying Hillary's electoral vote lead.


Because it is too late for any other 3rd party to gather signatures and get on the ballot they are sort of the last gasp.


yrs,
rubato

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