Brexit, the movie

[rubato]

Funny, people who know what they are talking about still fear a UK exit, but not for the reasons Aspergers boy thinks.

If the UK votes to leave the EU next week, the move could ultimately lead to the bloc's disintegration, Germany's foreign minister has warned.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier was speaking near Berlin after talks with his French counterpart, Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Germany is the UK's biggest trade partner in Europe.

"A vote to leave would shake the union," Mr Steinmeier said at a joint news conference in Brandenburg.

"It would not just carry on as 28 [members] minus one. It would require concerted efforts to ensure that the union holds together and that a decades-long, successful integration effort does not end in disintegration

I have given reasons that Brexit would be harmful to the UK. And proven them true against your uninformed objections. I have not pretended to give all the reasons that Brexit would be harmful to everyone else. Obama has advised against it because he believes it would be harmful to us as well. He is right.

The natural tendency is for regional agreements to expand and deepen between countries and other political units especially when the individual countries are small, like the EU, but the aggregate is larger. The EU is close to the size of the US so when it can function as an economic unit it trades at a greater advantage vs the rest of the world. There are also huge economies of scale when you only need 1 regulatory body and 1 set of regulations instead of 20-ish.

A slightly different sort of example is the fact that 11 other states have voluntarily adopted California's more stringent vehicle emissions standards because they knew that car manufacturers would already be making "California compliant" cars because of the size of the Calif. market so they saved the expense of developing and figuring out how to enforce their own standards and got the environmental benefits of the lowest emissions. They abandoned their "Gawd-given" autonomy because it made sense.

A further consideration is how businesses have tended to develop ever-more intrusive and complex standards for regulating each others behavior, like ISO, even across national boundaries. We do business with a lot of companies who are at risk of substantial losses if we screw up so we have to have an organizational structure which is transparent to them. They come and audit our processes and the way we regulate them because they have a huge interest in doing so. 12 inch computer wafers are processed at a rate of 1 or 2 per minute and each is worth ca $70,000 so a material problem can create a multi-million dollar problem very quickly. They have to have a way of 'seeing' into how we do things which reassures them that we have mitigated risks as well as is possible. In doing this there is an inherent loss of individual autonomy, it cannot be avoided. And that is much like the loss of autonomy of the UK vs the EU because what is true narrowly of businesses is also true of how we interact as larger political units.


yrs,
rubato

[rubato]

And Switzerland was told "if you try to shut off immigration we shut off all trade immediately. No discussion."

Yes, but what's the downside?

No Swiss Kriss for you!




yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

If the UK votes to leave the EU next week, the move could ultimately lead to the bloc's disintegration...

That's exactly right, as the polling information I posted earlier about the attitudes of folks in other EU countries clearly indicates...

The European Economic Community (EEC) wasn't a bad idea, but when the political classes in various European countries took it into their heads that they could parlay that into some sort of post-nationalist "United States Of Europe", they badly over-reached...

As I've pointed out before, at this point in history there are simply too many cultural and social value differences between the member states of the EU to reasonably expect that level of unity....

And in their well intentioned but wrong-headed pursuit of this unrealistic goal, they have unleashed the Law Of Unintended Consequences with a vengeance...

Far from creating a "post-nationalist" Europe, they have fanned the flames of nationalism all throughout the EU...

The solution to this would be for the EU "authorities" to act not with arrogance and punishment, but with humility, and to pull back to more realistic goals ...(goals that don't involve trying to trump national sovereignty)

Perhaps Brexit will be a wake up call for them in this regard...and they will begin to adopt a humbler and more circumspect approach...and attract Britain to rejoin under a more realistic and reasonable association...

If not, and instead they decide to double down on arrogance, the EU will just face further disintegration and ultimately collapse...

And it will deserve it...

[Gob]

I have given reasons that Brexit would be harmful to the UK. And proven them true against your uninformed objections.

What you have "proved" so far is only how stunningly deep your ignorance is.

The natural tendency is for regional agreements to expand and deepen between countries and other political units especially when the individual countries are small, like the EU, but the aggregate is larger. The EU is close to the size of the US so when it can function as an economic unit it trades at a greater advantage vs the rest of the world. There are also huge economies of scale when you only need 1 regulatory body and 1 set of regulations instead of 20-ish.

Oh dear. He really doesn't under stand that the EU is composed of 28 countries, each with their own languages, sculptures and political systems, and the chances of it ever functioning effectively are squat. So far it's main achievement is to drag things down towards the lowest common denominator.

A slightly different sort of example is the fact that 11 other states have voluntarily adopted California's more stringent vehicle emissions standards because they knew that car manufacturers would already be making "California compliant" cars because of the size of the Calif. market so they saved the expense of developing and figuring out how to enforce their own standards and got the environmental benefits of the lowest emissions. They abandoned their "Gawd-given" autonomy because it made sense.

Yes dear;

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions will now be allowed at twice the EU’s 80mg per km limit from 2019 and 50% more from 2021, despite the exemptions being deemed unlawful in a separate vote by the parliament’s legal committee last night. At a Strasbourg vote today, MEPs rejected the proposal by 323 votes to 317 - 53 votes short of the absolute majority needed under EU voting rules.

A further consideration is how businesses have tended to develop ever-more intrusive and complex standards for regulating each others behavior, like ISO, even across national boundaries. We do business with a lot of companies who are at risk of substantial losses if we screw up so we have to have an organizational structure which is transparent to them. They come and audit our processes and the way we regulate them because they have a huge interest in doing so. 12 inch computer wafers are processed at a rate of 1 or 2 per minute and each is worth ca $70,000 so a material problem can create a multi-million dollar problem very quickly. They have to have a way of 'seeing' into how we do things which reassures them that we have mitigated risks as well as is possible. In doing this there is an inherent loss of individual autonomy, it cannot be avoided. And that is much like the loss of autonomy of the UK vs the EU because what is true narrowly of businesses is also true of how we interact as larger political units.

Al of which is possible within the member states, those that choose to do the sensible thing, without EU mandating it.

[rubato]

You can certainly choose to be weaker and smaller when you 'negotiate' (knuckle under and kiss ass) with China. That is your choice. Aus. is almost a Chinese province already. That is why Aus reactions to global warming are simply to ignore it and lie about destruction of the great barrier reef.

And when the US sets vehicle safety and emissions standards you will comply, or sell fewer cars. We never "negotiate" those with anyone. The Japanese will meet them because they are smart business men.


yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

You can certainly choose to be weaker and smaller when you 'negotiate' (knuckle under and kiss ass) with China. That is your choice. Aus. is almost a Chinese province already. That is why Aus reactions to global warming are simply to ignore it and lie about destruction of the great barrier reef.

And when the US sets vehicle safety and emissions standards you will comply, or sell fewer cars. We never "negotiate" those with anyone. The Japanese will meet them because they are smart business men.


yrs,
rubato

ROTFLMFFAO!! Another superb demonstration, not that any were needed, of Aspergers boy's inability to deal with reality, and his infinitesimally small understanding of anything that happens out side of his state/village.

The U.S. automakers could export more models, the analysts said, but choose not to, noting that U.S. dealerships have decreased by 74 percent from 1996 to 2013 while European dealerships have increased 72 percent during the same period. The analysts point to these divergences in the number of models and dealerships as well as the amount spent on advertising as accounting for the slow decline in U.S. automakers’ market share in Japan and the steady increase in market share by EU automakers.

[Guinevere]

Oh look, Rube, LJ, and Gob, sneering and calling names again.

Just because the head Trumpanzee does it continually, doesn't make it acceptable behavior.

[rubato]

You can certainly choose to be weaker and smaller when you 'negotiate' (knuckle under and kiss ass) with China. That is your choice. Aus. is almost a Chinese province already. That is why Aus reactions to global warming are simply to ignore it and lie about destruction of the great barrier reef.

And when the US sets vehicle safety and emissions standards you will comply, or sell fewer cars. We never "negotiate" those with anyone. The Japanese will meet them because they are smart business men.


yrs,
rubato

ROTFLMFFAO!! Another superb demonstration, not that any were needed, of Aspergers boy's inability to deal with reality, and his infinitesimally small understanding of anything that happens out side of his state/village.

The U.S. automakers could export more models, the analysts said, but choose not to, noting that U.S. dealerships have decreased by 74 percent from 1996 to 2013 while European dealerships have increased 72 percent during the same period. The analysts point to these divergences in the number of models and dealerships as well as the amount spent on advertising as accounting for the slow decline in U.S. automakers’ market share in Japan and the steady increase in market share by EU automakers.

Ford sells quite a lot of cars to the EU and UK who appear not to notice that it is an American company.

There you go.



yrs ,
rubato

[rubato]

Oh look, Rube, LJ, and Gob, sneering and calling names again.

Just because the head Trumpanzee does it continually, doesn't make it acceptable behavior.

I don't think this is a symmetrical situation. Unlike the others I have tried to keep focused on the facts.

yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

Ford sells quite a lot of cars to the EU and UK who appear not to notice that it is an American company.

There you go.



yrs ,
rubato

Yes, but the article I linked to was about the US declining share of the Japanese markets, and how European cars are selling more. So your non-point is, yet again, irrelevant.

Try again.

[rubato]

Ford sells quite a lot of cars to the EU and UK who appear not to notice that it is an American company.

There you go.



yrs ,
rubato

Yes, but the article I linked to was about the US declining share of the Japanese markets, and how European cars are selling more. So your non-point is, yet again, irrelevant.

Try again.

The Japanese car market is small compared to the US. A declining share of "not much" is still "not much". And we don't make the kind of cars which are attractive there, very small, very high mileage &c so who gives a rats ass?

You really don't get anything. Do you? You are taking credit for "European" cars? "European"? Not UK? Fucking pathetic. Loser.

yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

I don't think this is a symmetrical situation. Unlike the others I have tried to keep focused on the facts.

yrs,
rubato

You really don't get anything. Do you? You are taking credit for "European" cars? "European"? Not UK? Fucking pathetic. Loser.

yrs,
rubato

I must have hacked into his account to post that "Fucking pathetic. Loser" bit...

[Gob]

The Japanese car market is small compared to the US. A declining share of "not much" is still "not much". And we don't make the kind of cars which are attractive there, very small, very high mileage &c so who gives a rats ass?



You really don't get anything. Do you? You are taking credit for "European" cars? "European"? Not UK? Fucking pathetic. Loser.

yrs,
rubato

Oh well, if you're fixated on the UK car market..

UK car manufacturing reaches 10-year high, growing 3.9% to 1,587,677 vehicles.
More cars exported than ever before, up 2.7% on previous year at 1,227,881.
Domestic production surges 8.1% to 359,796 to meet increasing demand for British-built cars.
EU demand grows 11.3%, with 57.5% of exports destined for the continent.
US overtakes China as UK’s largest export destination, with demand up by a quarter.

[Gob]

Manufacturing matters and Brexit can help. Although a service sector economy, UK manufacturing is vital in achieving balanced and regional growth and reducing the large trade deficit.

Strong global influences are challenging manufacturing, not least low-cost producers led by China. These will continue, whatever the referendum outcome. But Brexit provides greater flexibility to cope and position for the future.

There is a reason why our internationally competitive manufacturing companies such as JCB and Dyson support Brexit. To survive and compete the UK has to expose itself to international competition and needs to focus on selling into the fast growing markets of the future.

The alternative of remaining protected behind the tariff wall and regulations of the EU makes companies flabby and less competitive in global markets. Yes, there are many big firms who want to remain in the EU. Not only do those big firms have the ability to lobby Brussels but they all too often focus on the short term and their next quarter’s results.

For once we need to think long term and about what positions us best for future investment, jobs and growth.


Brexit would probably lead to a weaker pound and lower rates. In a low inflation global environment this would be good for manufacturing. But it is much more than this.

It is not always appreciated the extent to which the UK has moved into higher end manufacturing, dependent on high value added, not low wages. This makes sense and needs to continue. We can compete either on price or on quality, and while we need to be competitive we must avoid a race to the bottom. It is no good for productivity or wages. EU membership has not helped us address our productivity challenge. High-quality production is the focus, but it requires us to compete internationally and we can only do that properly outside the EU.

[Gob]

Interesting perspective, which any true Democrat would find thought provoking.

From my research I would argue that the referendum debate within working-class communities is not about immigration, despite the rhetoric.

It is about precarity and fear. As a group of east London women told me: “I’m sick of being called a racist because I worry about my own mum and my own child,” and “I don’t begrudge anyone a roof who needs it but we can’t manage either.”

Over the past 30 years there has been a sustained attack on working-class people, their identities, their work and their culture by Westminster politics and the media bubble around it. Consequently they have stopped listening to politicians and to Westminster and they are doing what every politician fears: they are using their own experiences in judging what is working for and against them.

In the last few weeks of the campaign the rhetoric has ramped up and the blame game started. If we leave the EU it will be the fault of the “stupid”, “ignorant”, and “racist” working class. Whenever working-class people have tried to talk about the effects of immigration on their lives, shouting “backward” and “racist” has become a middle-class pastime.

Working-class people in the UK can see a possibility that something might change for them if they vote to leave the EU. The women in east London and the men in the mining towns all tell me the worst thing is that things stay the same. The referendum has become a way in which they can have their say, and they are saying collectively that their lives have been better than they are today. And they are right. Shouting “racist” and “ignorant” at them louder and louder will not work – they have stopped listening.

For them, talking about immigration and being afraid of immigration is about the precarity of being working class, when people’s basic needs are no longer secure and they want change. The referendum has opened up a chasm of inequality in the UK and the monsters of a deeply divided and unfair society are crawling out. They will not easily go away no matter what the referendum result.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... referendum

[oldr_n_wsr]

Over the past 30 years there has been a sustained attack on working-class people, their identities, their work and their culture by Westminster politics and the media bubble around it. Consequently they have stopped listening to politicians and to Westminster and they are doing what every politician fears: they are using their own experiences in judging what is working for and against them.

In the last few weeks of the campaign the rhetoric has ramped up and the blame game started. If we leave the EU it will be the fault of the “stupid”, “ignorant”, and “racist” working class. Whenever working-class people have tried to talk about the effects of immigration on their lives, shouting “backward” and “racist” has become a middle-class pastime.

Sounds similar. The issue(s) might be different, but the sentiment (and the rhetoric back at the middle class) is similar.

[rubato]

Oh well, if you're fixated on the UK car market..

UK car manufacturing reaches 10-year high, growing 3.9% to 1,587,677 vehicles.
More cars exported than ever before, up 2.7% on previous year at 1,227,881.
Domestic production surges 8.1% to 359,796 to meet increasing demand for British-built cars.
EU demand grows 11.3%, with 57.5% of exports destined for the continent.
US overtakes China as UK’s largest export destination, with demand up by a quarter. [BMW makes Minis in the UK, for example]

You do understand what is at risk here?

Nearly all high-volume car manufacturing in the UK is by foreign companies who can and will move at the drop of a trade agreement.


yrs,
rubato

[rubato]

PS If you had checked the links I provided to The Economist you would have seen that the UK car industry was mentioned as a particular vulnerability of brexit.

The Economist, BTB, has more readers in the U.S. than in the UK.


I guess we can see that here.


yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

PS If you had checked the links I provided to The Economist you would have seen that the UK car industry was mentioned as a particular vulnerability of brexit.

The Economist, BTB, has more readers in the U.S. than in the UK.

All UK industry, and services, and exports, are "vulnerable" in the Brexit scenario, but some I citizens are still keen to regain sovereignty.

[rubato]

"...


All UK industry, and services, and exports, are "vulnerable" in the Brexit scenario, but some I citizens are still keen to regain sovereignty.

A particular illusion of sovereignty. All you have to do is click your heels three times and you can go back to the days before David Ricardo showed the benefits of trade, before international travel made us all part of a common population vulnerable to the same diseases, before the days when pollution in Belarus or China affected all of our air and water.

Those of us living in the present understand that continued international cooperation, a livable environment, control of the spread of international infectious disease, and a peaceful world require that all states give up some individual freedom in exchange for those things.

Extra-national governance is not optional. You can either choose to be a part of it or choose to do as they tell you to. You cannot opt out of the planet.

You will pay a lot more and get exactly nothing for it in greater individual power. Norway recognizes that fact by adopting 75% of EU rules automatically. And Norway is very rich with an enormous sovereign wealth fund. If money is power they have understood the limits of it.

Earlier I said that it was not in the economic interests of Scotland to leave the UK, and it wasn't. But doing so would have given them more autonomy in a limited sense, more sovereignty. Pride and sense of self. But this is the kind of foolish pride that Putin pays his subjects with. An illusion of power and importance in exchange for greater poverty and corruption.



yrs,
rubato