Independence day

[rubato]

Great or small the EU offered all that they were going to. It is the same in the end.


yrs,
rubato

[Big RR]

Well if the EU does that, they're cutting off their collective noses to spite their faces. Loss of trade opportunities with the UK, the fifth largest economy in the world, would be a disaster for them. The last "offer" was predicated on their thought that the UK would not vote to leave. Now that it has, everything will reset and they will have to negotiate from scratch. It will take time, but I predict cooler heads will prevail and they will reach an agreement. If not, the union may well fall apart.

[Long Run]

Poor kids.

That is one way to look at it. The other way, is that those who have lived under both regimes voted overwhelmingly to go back to the former regime. And, then, the younger ones will get to live under the "independent" system for likely a fairly long period of time, and will be able to decide if they want to go back to the union.

All in all, there is a lot of hyperventilating over this since no one really knows what the independent regime will be, and as pointed out, it is in no one's interest to be punitive. Will this be a lot of air-time and bandwidth used up over a decision that ultimately has little impact? Or, is this a defining moment in history?

[Guinevere]

Live scenes from the Chunnel ....

[rubato]

Well if the EU does that, they're cutting off their collective noses to spite their faces. Loss of trade opportunities with the UK, the fifth largest economy in the world, would be a disaster for them. The last "offer" was predicated on their thought that the UK would not vote to leave. Now that it has, everything will reset and they will have to negotiate from scratch. It will take time, but I predict cooler heads will prevail and they will reach an agreement. If not, the union may well fall apart.

The last offer was an attempt to keep the UK from leaving, it was slapped away. There will be less flexibility going forward.

It is the UK who have already cut off their noses. No one is saying that they will cut off trade, that is a pure strawman. But the UK has demanded that the terms will change and so they will. As the smaller and weaker partner they will have less power just as Mexico has less power in trade and other negotiations with the US.

They may be offered the same terms as Norway, "You agree to 75% of our trade rules with no say in setting them and agree to pay substantial fees towards EU costs".


yrs,
rubato

[Big RR]

Perhaps, but somehow I think they'll value the UK as a more valuable and necessary trading partner than that, and negotiate in good faith. Failure to reach an agreement will be pretty devastating for the EU--it might well unravel it. Only time will tell, but I'm betting on all parties being pragmatic and flexible.

[rubato]

One of the tectonic shifts in agriculture which occurred after the opening up of eastern Europe was that western European farmers, many British, bought up farmland in Czech and other eastern bloc countries. Czech banned the sales for a period after joining the EU but then opened them up again, to EU members. Now this will be good for the German, French and Dutch farmers.

http://www.farmlandgrab.org/post/view/1 ... p-of-farms

Czechs loosen rules on foreign ownership of farms
Published: 25 Aug 2011
Short URL: http://farmlandgrab.org/19143
Posted in: Czech Republic
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World Agronomy | August 2011

Czechs loosen rules on foreign ownership of farms

Foreigners will find it easier to buy farmland in the Czech Republic following new regulations passed on 13 July that effectively end the seven-year ban on foreign ownership of land in the Czech Republic which was agreed with the European Union in 2004. EU and Swiss investors – and those covered by European Economic Area pacts – will now be permitted to buy farm and forestry acreage being sold by the Czech government.

The government has an estimated 147,000 hectares of land (or 3.5% of the country‟s agricultural land) prepped for sale. Czech Ministry of Agriculture figures show that farmland fetches between €1,200-€2,000 ($1,725 - $2,875) per hectare, depending on the quality of the land. These values are about one-third of the price at which agricultural land sells in Britain.

But before investors rush out to buy their own Zetor tractor, there is a small catch. Preferential treatment in the disposal of state-controlled farmland will be given to existing Czech farmers who have been working at least 10 hectares of land for the past three years

yrs,
rubato

[rubato]

Perhaps, but somehow I think they'll value the UK as a more valuable and necessary trading partner than that, and negotiate in good faith. Failure to reach an agreement will be pretty devastating for the EU--it might well unravel it. Only time will tell, but I'm betting on all parties being pragmatic and flexible.

"failure to reach an agreement" is a straw man. Wholly pointless to bring it up. Both sides will be pragmatic. Both sides will be flexible. And both sides will know that the UK is weaker and has given up any direct authority and will come to terms. Large companies in the US frequently demand, and get, "pay 90" terms while insisting that their trading partners settle accounts in 30 days*. Because they can. Business is like that.



yrs,
rubato

Meaning that if they owe money they can take 90 days to pay it while someone who owes them pays in 30 days. It has been common in my business for 10 years for larger companies to do this.

[rubato]

An interesting question is will some of the financial services industry leave London?

It is a very fat plum and is now ripe for the picking.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/ec ... now-ons-g7

3. Britain's financial services sector grew rapidly between 2006 and 2009. The UK economy has long been a dominant player in financial services, along with the US, but growth in the sector between 2006 and 2009 was particularly rapid. By 2009, the sector accounted for 10% of UK GDP, the highest of all G7 economies. The second highest was Canada at 6.7%, and the lowest was Germany at 3.9%. The dominance of the sector in Britain meant it was hit harder by the financial crash. Its share of the economy fell by 2.9 percentage points, while it remained roughly stable in other major economies. Output in the UK financial services sector is still 13.6% below pre-crisis levels according to the latest ONS data.

4. Financial services are a key part of UK exports. Britain has the highest ratio of services exports to GDP in the G7, at 13%. It also has the biggest share of financial services exports by some way, at 29% in 2012. The second is the US at 15%, with Japan exporting the least at 3%.

£40bn wiped off British banks as 'harsh reality' of Brexit vote sinks in

Tara Cunningham, Business Reporter

24 June 2016 • 11:31am

London’s banking sector, which generates exports of £23bn to the European Union, is facing the “harsh reality” of probable changes to the industry after Britain chose to withdraw from the 28-member bloc.

Banking stocks were left reeling from the Brexit vote, with more than £40bn wiped off their value, as the City’s titans warned there would be “negatives on all sides” for the sector.

As the referendum result sends shudders through the financial services sector, Giles Williams, financial services partner at KPMG, said: “The harsh reality of the probable changes to passporting arrangements and market structure and engagement with the wider economy across Europe will now sink in.”

However, Simon Hunt, UK head of banking and capital markets at PWC, said banks will now have to consider retaining their position in the EU, as accessing the single market is “one of the most significant benefits” of EU membership to the banking sector.

The short-term impact of the decision was evident as stocks plunged into chaos. However, markets recovered slightly when the Bank of England said it would safeguard the country’s financial stability. Shares in Lloyds tumbled 21pc, Royal Bank of Scotland tanked 17pc, Barclays dropped 16pc, HSBC fell 3.3pc and Asia-exposed Standard Chartered slipped 4.8pc.

yrs,
rubato

[MajGenl.Meade]

Live scenes from the Chunnel ....

Should have shown a British engine instead of a French one:

[Guinevere]

Pretty sure that is Henry, who is quite British....

http://www.thomasandfriends.com/en-us/k ... Henry.html

What, you don't know your Sodor Railway characters?

[Scooter]

The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it

By Brian Fung June 24 at 9:55 AM

The whole world is reeling after a milestone referendum in Britain to leave the European Union. And although leaders of the campaign to exit Europe are crowing over their victory, it seems many Britons may not even know what they had actually voted for.

Awakening to a stock market plunge and a precipitous decline in the value of the pound that Britain hasn't seen in more than 30 years, voters now face a series of economic shocks that analysts say will only worsen before they improve. The consequences of the leave vote will be felt worldwide, even here in the United States, and some British voters say they now regret casting a ballot in favor of Brexit.

"Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just — the reality did actually hit me," one woman told the news channel ITV News. "If I'd had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay."

That confusion over what Brexit might mean for the country's economy appears to have been reflected across the United Kingdom on Thursday. Google reported sharp upticks in searches not only related to the ballot measure but also about basic questions concerning the implications of the vote. At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" had more than tripled.

The run-up to the vote was marked by a bitterly divided campaign, one that was as much about immigration fears as it was about the global economy.

But despite the all-out attempts by either side to court voters, Britons were not only mystified by what would happen if they left the E.U.— many seemed not to even know what the European Union is.



What is the E.U.? To be fair, that question will now take on a much deeper significance than perhaps Google's users realized when they typed that into their browsers.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Secretly, "Henri" - we can always tell.

[Guinevere]

Sacrilege!

You need young grandchildren, obvs.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Thanks, Guin - my daughter just had a heart attack. Young great-grandchildren are far more likely. Oh dear - that's Sara unconscious on the floor too!

Could MPs block an EU exit?

Could the necessary legislation pass the Commons, given that a lot of MPs - all SNP and Lib Dems, nearly all Labour and many Conservatives - were in favour of staying?

The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.

The withdrawal agreement also has to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report.

In practice, Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to vote with the government. Any who defied the whip would have to face the wrath of voters at the next general election.

One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one.

Two-thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020.

A worthy link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

[Big RR]

So referenda are almost as worthless in the UK as they are in the US (except maybe in ratifying constitutional amendments). Politicians plotting to subvert the unambiguously expressed will of the people; interesting but hardly surprising.

[Scooter]

"without a single bullet being fired," says Mr. Farage. Well, not quite.

Jackass.

[wesw]

you should sign all of your replies that way.

[Scooter]

Why would you want me to pretend I was you?

[MajGenl.Meade]

Ten Years ago I had business trips to Northern Ireland--my employer had a couple of factories there. I heard ordinary conversation among protestants that shocked my liberal pc American ears. Stuff said about Catholics that I would not have heard from the worst anti-Nigger racist Georgia cracker or Ozark hillbilly.

They used to sell pencils marked FTP. Did you hear that acronym at all?