Polling numbers and predictions

[Lord Jim]

Poll: Clinton up in Florida, New Hampshire; extends lead on electoral map

Hillary Clinton has extended her lead in Florida and is now up five points over Donald Trump, 45 percent to 40 percent; she led by three points in June.

And Clinton now has a dominant nine-point lead in New Hampshire, 45 percent to 36 percent, a lead that has her threatening to take that battleground state off the board entirely, just as last week, a double-digit lead in Virginia made that state look like anything but a toss-up.

In Georgia - usually a Republican state not typically considered a battleground - Trump leads 45-41 but Clinton has things closer than in most presidential races, down just four points.

Much as in other states we've surveyed lately, Clinton has moved out to lead despite relatively low numbers on many attributes and voters' doubts about her truthfulness. But voters feel Trump is even lower on a few other key measures: only 29 percent in Florida, for instance, feel he has good judgment and temperament, and 71 percent say that does not.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillar ... toral-map/

[Lord Jim]

Trump doesn't even carry his home state

Yeah, about that...

Uhh, that's not gonna happen:

Hillary Clinton crushing Donald Trump 57%-27% in New York State: poll

Hillary Clinton’s campaign must be in an Empire State of mind.

The Democratic presidential nominee is absolutely crushing Donald Trump in New York, a new poll released Monday showed, refuting any suggestion the mogul has ever made that he could run a competitive race in the reliably blue state.

Clinton beat Trump in a two-way race 57%-27%, the latest Siena Research Institute poll found. In a four-way matchup, Clinton still destroyed Trump 50%-25%, with another combined 16% saying they’d vote for another candidate.

A whopping 66% of registered New York State voters said Clinton is more qualified to be commander-in-chief than Trump, while only 26% said the opposite.

“Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map, as Clinton holds a commanding 30-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a similarly strong 25-point, two-to-one lead in a four-way matchup,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.

Trump, throughout his campaign and as recently as June, had said he would be able to compete in reliably Democratic states like New York, citing the appeal he thinks he has among New York City natives and upstate working class voters.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politic ... -1.2750915

[oldr_n_wsr]

I think Reagen was the only repub to carry NY (at least in my voting history). No big story that Hillary is way ahead in NY.
With her lead, it lets me vote Libertarian.

[Scooter]

It would seem that the polls are not going well for Republican Senate candidates either. Even with a GOP pickup in Nevada, Evan Bayh's entry into the Indiana race makes it look like the Democrats will take control of the Senate.

[Lord Jim]

Trump is killing us down ballot in the Senate races...

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are two excellent examples:

In Pennsylvania, Toomey runs seven points ahead of Trump, but he's still losing in the state by two, because Trump is nine points down...

If we had a Presidential nominee who was "only" losing Pennsylvania by 4 or 5, Toomey would be winning...

In New Hampshire, Ayotte is also running seven points ahead of Trump, but she's down by a point because Trump is losing by eight...

All of these numbers are taken from RCP poll averages. You can see the whole current Senate picture here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html

Just being able to hang on to one of those seats would shift the Senate count to 51-49 GOP...

If they're not going to yank him as the nominee, the RNC should at the very least IMMEDIATELY cut him loose and shift all available resources to the down ballot races...

Same thing with any independent GOP groups...

[Scooter]

Interesting reading. Basically, he believes that any congressional candidate in a district with a PVI of R+5 or less is vulnerable, and that there are more than enough of those to topple the Republican majority in the House:

It might be time for Republicans to start worrying about their House majority

[Lord Jim]

THE TRUMP TAX

Donald Trump is polling 5.8 points behind where the Republican nominee should be this year.

The 2016 presidential election was supposed to be close — but Republicans should have had the edge.

An election forecast built by Vox and a team of political scientists projects that a generic Republican should win 50.9 percent of the two-party vote in 2016. But Donald Trump isn’t a generic Republican — and he is polling at 45.1 percent of the two-party vote, according to the Huffington Post Pollster. The difference between those numbers — 5.8 points, as of today — is what we’re calling the Trump Tax: the electoral penalty Republicans appear to be paying for nominating Trump.

Vox’s model projects the campaign's outcome based on the most historically accurate political science models incorporating "fundamentals" like the state of the economy, the president's popularity, and so forth. There's a margin of error, naturally, with estimates for the Democratic vote share ranging from 43.61 percent to 53.44 percent, but the point estimate was a narrow GOP victory — 50.9 percent of two-party vote, to be precise.

During the primary, head-to-head matchups between mainstream Republicans and Hillary Clinton reflected the Republican edge, and perhaps even Clinton’s weaknesses. RealClearPolitics' last average in early March put Marco Rubio up 4 points over Clinton. John Kasich versus Clinton was a veritable bloodbath, with Kasich an astonishing 7.4 points up as of late April. Trump's unpopularity was evident even then: Those same polls showed Trump trailing the Democrat, often by double digits.

What we appear to be seeing is a remarkable example of a major political party blowing a totally winnable national election. [Ya think? ]

There is uncertainty here, of course. Elections are complex things, and we can’t rerun this race in laboratory conditions. It is possible the difference between the GOP’s expected performance and Trump’s performance reflects an economy stronger than the GDP data indicates, or that Clinton is a far more effective campaigner than conventional wisdom (or her poll numbers) suggests.

But given the difference between where Trump is polling and where more mainstream Republicans were polling, we believe the likeliest explanation is that this is the cost Republicans are paying for nominating a very unusual candidate who is running a very unusual campaign. ["unusual" here of course being a euphemism for "sucks ass"...]

[Lord Jim]

Interesting reading. Basically, he believes that any congressional candidate in a district with a PVI of R+5 or less is vulnerable, and that there are more than enough of those to topple the Republican majority in the House:

That is an interesting article Scooter...

Depressing, but interesting...

[Scooter]

Note that he is still not saying it is the likely outcome, only that the math has a clear opening to that side.

[RayThom]

Pat Toomey is really scrambling to stay relevant but with Trump leading the pack he's shoveling sand against the tide. I don't sense enough cross-over votes to save him.

The Trump two-step: How a GOP senator is trying, awkwardly, to keep his job
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
Not to put the cart before the horse but it looks like November 8th is shaping up to be a romp by the Democrats.

[Burning Petard]

All this points out the really important election this fall--who gets to name the next addition to the Supremes, along with what happens in all those state legislatures four years from now--who gets to draw the congressional districts after the 2020 census.

The party that controls the state legislature ALWAYS draws the lines to their own benefit. Texas democrat legislatures tried to flee the state and hide, without success. Computer programs have made this process very precise and very effective. The historical tool called gerrymandering has become very sophisticated and efficient. That is the source of the GOP majority in the federal lower house. Some have challenged this over various 'fairness' doctrines. The current panel at the Supremes have mostly supported whatever the states did, without 'fairness' considered very important. Whatever the supreme court looks like 5 years from now could be very important to voting districts and issues of filtering out people the local incumbents do not want to vote.

snailgate.

[Lord Jim]

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Texas Poll: Trump Only 6 Points Ahead

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is only six points ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas.

The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling and released on August 16th, shows Donald Trump winning in Texas by six percentage points, 44 percent to 38 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson captured six percent of the vote, while Jill Stein won two percent. In a head-to-head match up, Trump leads Clinton by the same margin, 50 percent to 44 percent.

This is a surprisingly tight race for Texas, one of the most Republican states in the country where Mitt Romney won by a margin of nearly 16 percent. In a September 2012 poll, Romney was beating Obama by 19 points.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/08/2016-elec ... ue-rigged/

Poll: Clinton pulling away from Trump in Florida

A Monmouth University survey released Tuesday shows Clinton taking 48 percent support over Trump at 39 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson takes 6 percent support in the poll and 5 percent are undecided.

That’s a larger lead for Clinton than most other recent polls have found. Clinton leads by only 3.6 points in Florida according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Trump is trailing in most battleground states and it will be very difficult for him to win the election without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

Clinton has amassed the support of most liberals in the Sunshine State, taking 92 percent support from Florida Democrats, while Trump is still struggling to rally his own party, with only 79 percent support from Florida Republicans.

Clinton also leads Trump among independents in the state, 47 percent to 30 percent.

The Democrat holds a 50 point lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters, and a 10 point lead with women.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... in-florida

[Lord Jim]

Clinton leads Trump by 10 in national poll

The Democratic nominee opens up a big lead as Trump muddles through controversy.

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 10-point national lead over Donald Trump in the Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters out Thursday, the latest sign of the Democratic nominee's sturdy momentum as Trump wades through self-inflicted controversies.

Among those likely to vote in November, Clinton grabbed 51 percent in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump earned 41 percent.

The survey entered the field last Thursday, a day after Trump shook up his leadership structure, naming pollster Kellyanne Conway as campaign manager and Breitbart executive Steve Bannon as CEO. Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign chairman, resigned Friday following a cascade of negative stories about his work for the pro-Kremlin former president of Ukraine, as the Trump team sought to articulate the candidate’s shifting message on immigration, arguably his signature campaign issue.

Clinton’s double-digit lead, more than double her previous weekly RealClearPolitics average of 5 points, comes even as the Democratic nominee faced renewed scrutiny over the connections between her family’s foundation and her work as secretary of state.

More demographic breakdowns here:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/c ... oll-227406

[Lord Jim]

Clinton Leads Trump By 5 Points In Latest Poll

The Democrat’s numbers are down from a peak this month of 12 points.

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads her Republican rival Donald Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, down from a peak this month of 12 points, according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Friday.

The Aug. 22-25 opinion poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election, while 36 percent supported Trump. Some 23 percent would not pick either candidate and answered “refused,” “other” or “wouldn’t vote.”

Clinton, a former secretary of state, has led real estate developer Trump in the poll since Democrats and Republicans ended their national conventions and formally nominated their presidential candidates in July. Her level of support has varied between 41 and 45 percent during that period, and her lead over Trump in the tracking poll peaked this month at 12 percentage points on Tuesday.

During the past week, Clinton has been dogged by accusations by Trump, which she has denied, that donations to her family’s charitable foundation influenced her actions while she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. Questions have also surfaced again about her use of a private email server and address rather than a government one during her period at the State Department.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/cli ... c1ff296063

The most striking thing to me about this poll is the 23% undecided...

That is an extraordinarily high level of undecided to have just a little over two months before election day, especially when you have two candidates as well known to voters as these two...

It reflects the deep dislike, distrust, and distaste that a very large chunk of the electorate has towards both nominees; they can't bring themselves even at this point to swallow either one of them...

The bad news for Clinton is that even after everything Trump has said and done, the aversion towards her is so great that there remain enough undecided voters out there that Trump could still theoretically pull off a win...

The good news for her of course is that as Trump continues to demonstrate, he is simply constitutionally incapable of cleaning up his act enough to take advantage of this opportunity...

[RayThom]

Thank you so very much, Hillary.

[Bicycle Bill]

The bad news for Clinton is that even after everything Trump has said and done, the aversion towards her is so great that there remain enough undecided voters out there that Trump could still theoretically pull off a win...

That's my biggest fear as well, and that's why, a couple of weeks ago, I urged everyone here to eschew the third-party candidates and vote as a bloc for Clinton.  It's not so much that she is the best choice for POTUS (frankly, if I had my druthers I'd pick someone else too), it's just that Trump is so unfit — and there's no option on the ballot for "anybody BUT this guy" — that extraordinary measures must be employed.  No disrespect intended towards Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or any of the other third-party candidates, but we must stand united behind the only other person (Hillary) who has a realistic chance of beating Trump so as to avoid just such a catastrophe as 'Mighty Mouth' taking the oath of office in January.

-"BB"-

[Lord Jim]

It's not so much that she is the best choice for POTUS (frankly, if I had my druthers I'd pick someone else too), it's just that Trump is so unfit — that extraordinary measures must be employed....

... we must stand united behind the only other person (Hillary) who has a realistic chance of beating Trump so as to avoid just such a catastrophe as 'Mighty Mouth' taking the oath of office in January.

[oldr_n_wsr]

I'm voting Johnson. NY will go Hillary. Not enough undecided voters here in NY (not with NYC democrat head count anyway) for Trump to take NY. NY delegates will go to Hillary
(but I have been wrong before)

[RayThom]

I'm voting Johnson...

Well... it's better than not voting at all. Either way, it will be a vote for Trump or Clinton -- you decide.

At the moment I plan NOT to vote for any candidate running for president, However, I'll vote for all Dems on the down-ballot, regardless how I feel about them. (The Senate and House needs my support.) Anyway, that's the best I can do to register my disdain for the only two people that remotely stand a chance of winning.

I can't believe it has come down to this.

[oldr_n_wsr]

I can't believe it has come down to this.

Me neither.
The down ballot is being studied. Many have just started or are starting. I am registered as an independent (aka no party affiliation) so I have not been privy (aka inundated) with mailing yet. But I am sure they are on the way.

I have always said that the local/county/state races are where my vote counts most especially not being in a swing state.