Polling numbers and predictions

[Scooter]

You're right, he deserves credit for that.

He still needs to be handed his ass in the election.

[RayThom]

Well, y'all can hate on Marco, (of course I want him to win) but you've got to give him credit for this...

Holy shit, Marco actually said that? Wow, what do you think the little weasel is up to this time? I feel his chances for reelection are hanging by a thread and Drumpf is holding the scissors.

[Scooter]

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL)

By GARY LANGER, WITH GREGORY HOLYK
and CHAD KIEWIET DE JONGE
Oct 23, 2016, 8:59 AM ET

Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.

Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump’s response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent.

The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton’s +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.

This inaugural 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,391 adults, including 874 likely voters. This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

Vote preference results among some groups also are striking. Among them:

• Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points among women, 55-35 percent. She's gained 12 points (and Trump's lost 16) from mid-October among non-college-educated white women, some of whom initially seemed to rally to Trump after disclosure of the videotape.

• Clinton has doubled her lead to 32 points, 62-30 percent, among college-educated white women, a group that’s particularly critical of his response to questions about his sexual conduct. (Seventy-six percent disapprove, 67 percent strongly.)

• That said, Clinton's also ahead numerically (albeit not significantly) among men, 44-41 percent, a first in ABC News and ABC/Post polling.

• Trump is just +4 among whites overall, 47-43 percent, a group Mitt Romney won by 20 points in 2012. Broad success among whites is critical for any Republican candidate; nonwhites, a reliably Democratic group, favor Clinton by 54 points, 68-14 percent.

[Scooter]

Hillary Clinton on cusp of commanding victory as moderate Republicans abandon Donald Trump: poll

Julie Pace, Emily Swanson, The Associated Press | October 27, 2016 9:23 AM ET

NEW YORK — Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans.

“I’m going to pick Hillary at the top and pick Republican straight down the line,” said poll respondent William Goldstein, a 71-year-old from Long Island, New York, who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. “I can’t vote for Trump.”

Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.

The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 per cent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 per cent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 per cent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party’s nominee.

With voting already underway in 37 states, Trump’s opportunities to overtake Clinton are quickly evaporating — and voters appear to know it. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 per cent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 per cent in September.

[Burning Petard]

I am getting more and more anxious about this presidential election. "The Polls" are just making it worse for me.

The NYTimes aggregation of polls now has it nationally for Hillary by a probability of 91% I don't find them listing a guess for popular vote or electoral vote. They have Florida 78% probability and 3% popular vote ahead for Hillary.

FiveThirtyEight has it 82% probability, 49% popular and 322 electoral votes for Hillary nationally. In Florida, 65% probability with 48.5% of the popular vote and Trump getting 46% of the popular vote.

I can't trust the polls. The Brexit vote in England and the Peace vote in Columbia recently both resulted with the poll predictions getting it wrong.

I worry about the reality of Trump's supporters and the basket of deplorables. Trump never denied they exist, only that it was so insulting to call them that. Trump never recanted his boast that 'I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and it would not cost me a single vote.' That IMNSHO, is deplorable. I worry about what those individuals, with the power of emotional re-enforcement that modern social media presents, will do after the election.

snailgate

[Scooter]

The Brexit vote in England ... resulted with the poll predictions getting it wrong.

This isn't actually true. The Brexit polling showed a race that was going to go down to the wire with almost all polls showing a spread between yes and no within the margin of error, which is exactly where the result came out.

[BoSoxGal]

I am seeing that a lot of the school-based mock elections are going for Trump; this really upsets me because I've heard in the past that those can be predictive, plus I'm wondering WTF is wrong with our high school kids?!

[Burning Petard]

I'm wondering WTF is wrong with our high school kids?!

Nothing. They are high school kids. Reflecting the state of high school education (teaching to the test avoids developing skills of data analysis and synthesis) and the current fashionable understanding of the development of the executive function of the human brain.

snailgate

[RayThom]

... I can't trust the polls. The Brexit vote in England and the Peace vote in Columbia recently both resulted with the poll predictions getting it wrong...
snailgate

sg, here's what you do. Watch the Cartoon Network for the next two weeks and then switch over to broadcast news on November 8th around 11 PM. There's the poll that will be most accurate... until Drumpf challenges it on the 9th.

[oldr_n_wsr]

I'm wondering WTF is wrong with our high school kids?!

Why? Because their thinking is not aligned with yours?
IMO hillary is just as bad as trump. Worse in some things, better in others.
Both choices suck. The worst (on both sides) I have ever seen in my voting career (I turned 18 in 1976).

As snailgate said:

teaching to the test avoids developing skills of data analysis and synthesis

[wesw]

they are too smart for your leftist brainwashing to take hold.

please please please call the children deplorable.

ok..., maybe some of them are....

[RayThom]

HAPPY HALLOWEEN

[Lord Jim]

Thank God for early voting...

(Yes, I'm on record as opposing early voting weeks before the election, but I'm also on record as supporting defeating Trump by any means necessary, which clearly represents the greater cause...)

Florida poll: 28 percent of GOP early voters picked Clinton

More than a quarter of Republicans who have already voted in Florida cast their ballots for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll.

A TargetSmart/William & Mary poll released Tuesday showed 28 percent of early Florida voters picked Clinton over GOP nominee Donald Trump. The poll, which will be released in full Wednesday, was shared early with MSNBC.

The poll also showed Clinton ahead of Trump overall, 48 to 40 percent, with a larger lead, 55 to 37 percent, among those who said they already voted.

In the Florida Senate race, the poll showed incumbent GOP Marco Rubio ahead of Rep. Patrick Murphy by 6 points, 49 to 43 percent.

The poll surveyed 718 people, 311 who said they voted early, through web and phone interviews.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... ry-clinton

If Clinton is leading by 8 and Rubio is leading by 6 this also indicates that ticket splitting is likely to be far more pervasive then in other recent elections, which from my perspective is a Good Thing.

[Sue U]

If Clinton is leading by 8 and Rubio is leading by 6 this also indicates that ticket splitting is likely to be far more pervasive then in other recent elections, which from my perspective is a Good Thing.

Maybe, but I don't know why you'd want to elect someone as Senator who is as disinterested in the work of the Senate as Rubio is.

[Burning Petard]

"Clinton is leading by 8 and Rubio is leading by 6"

Where do these number come from? Are the early votes tabulated and results made public now?

snailgate

[wesw]

no , just some poll, BP...

not to be taken seriously, easily slanted and unverified...

I wouldn t cling to it....

[oldr_n_wsr]

I'm still clinging to my God and my gun. (singular)

[Long Run]

The early voting poll is like any other, an attempt to determine how the voting will go, and it is done by a reputable firm. However, all of the other polls are showing a tightening race. I've already voted in our odd vote by mail system, and fortunately that turns off the door knocks and political ads in the mailbox.

[Bicycle Bill]

The early voting poll is like any other, an attempt to determine how the voting will go, and it is done by a reputable firm. However, all of the other polls are showing a tightening race. I've already voted in our odd vote by mail system, and fortunately that turns off the door knocks and political ads in the mailbox.

How can that be?  How would someone know that you've voted?
Or does the ballot have to be in the mail and postmarked by a certain date — the 1st of November,for example — even though election day itself isn't until the 8th?

I'm still glad we do it the old-fashioned way here.  Next Tuesday will find me at the local National Guard armory, probably standing in line and waiting my turn, with a freshly-sharpened pencil ready to jab a huge hole into Trump's chance at ever seeing the inside of the White House.

-"BB"-

[oldr_n_wsr]

We get Sharpies to check a box on a paper ballot with while standing at a cardboard protected "podium".
Then we put the ballot in an envelope and go to a computer which sucks the ballot out of the envelope and scans it then does who knows with it.

I still like the old curtain and lever voting booths.