The Muscovite Candidate

[Burning Petard]

Then again we have Mr Putin doing his impression of Bush 41, while declaring it was Ronnie Raygun who said 'read my lips'

snailgate.

[Sue U]

I suspect Flynn doesn't really have much to say but doesn't want to be made the fall guy for the Trump campaign. Although it's hilarious to see him seeking immunity now after his tirades during the campaign that anyone granted immunity in the Clinton OMG-EMAILS!!!111!! must be GUILTY GUILTY GUILTY and so LOCK HER UP!!!!!11!!1!1!

It looks to me like the Russian interference in the US election was never so much about electing Trump as it was about weakening Clinton and generally undermining confidence in US democracy and political processes.

I think the real story is in the weird financial dealings and businesses Trump has with Russian oligarchs and other unsavory characters, which suggest money laundering and deep personal economic interests/pressure. You know: follow the money.

[Burning Petard]

Would the kind of immunity Flynn is asking for shelter him from a military judicial proceeding for 'conduct unbecoming an officer' which could jeopardize his considerable military pay and allowances?

snailgate

[rubato]

The kidnapping allegation aside isn't it illegal for a retired general to be a paid agent for a foreign country; which he was for Turkey until after the election?


yrs,
rubato

[Econoline]

Inspired by Donald J. Trump's announcing Sexual Assault Awareness Month, Putin today declared Political Opposition Poisoning Awareness Month.
— Andy Borowitz

[BoSoxGal]

[Scooter]

[Econoline]

On a political cartoon site, one otherwise liberal cartoonist made the mistake of expressing doubt about the Russian connection to Donald Trump, to which a poster (handle “Radish”) provided the following amazing response:

I don’t know – it’s hard for me to see any U.S. ties to Russia…except for the Flynn thing and the Manafort thing
and the Tillerson thing
and the Sessions thing
and the Kushner thing
and the Carter Page thing
and the Roger Stone thing
and the Felix Sater thing
and the Boris Ephsteyn thing
and the Rosneft thing
and the Gazprom thing
and the Sergey Gorkov banker thing
and the Azerbajain thing
and the “I love Putin” thing
and the Donald Trump, Jr. thing
and the Sergey Kislyak thing
and the Russian Affiliated Interests thing
and the Russian Business Interests thing
and the Emoluments Clause thing
and the Alex Schnaider thing
and the hack of the DNC thing
and the Guccifer 2.0 thing
and the Mike Pence “I don’t know anything” thing
and the Russians mysteriously dying thing
and Trump’s public request to Russia to hack Hillary’s email thing
and the Trump house sale for $100 million at the bottom of the housing bust to the Russian fertilizer king thing
and the Russian fertilizer king’s plane showing up in Concord, NC during Trump rally campaign thing
and the Nunes sudden flight to the White House in the night thing
and the Nunes personal investments in the Russian winery thing
and the Cyprus bank thing
and Trump not releasing his tax returns thing
and the Republican Party’s rejection of an amendment to require Trump to show his taxes thing
and the election hacking thing
and the GOP platform change to the Ukraine thing
and the Steele Dossier thing
and the Leninist Bannon thing
and the Sally Yates can’t testify thing
and the intelligence community’s investigative reports thing
and Trump’s reassurance that the Russian connection is all “fake news” thing
and Spicer’s Russian Dressing “nothing’s wrong” thing
so there’s probably nothing there
since the swamp has been drained, these people would never lie
probably why Nunes cancels the investigation meetings
all of this must be normal
just a bunch of separate dots with no connection.

(I dunno where it originally came from but I found it here)

[RayThom]

A political conundrum of the first magnitude. It may never be unraveled.

[Burning Petard]

The Jim Wright (retired Navy intelligence warrant officer) currently has posted a tediously detailed description of the way this 'wire-tapping' by USA agencies actually works. He says a several times, once or twice is coincidence, three times may not be conspiracy, but it certainly demands further consideration.

snailgate

[Econoline]

Like snailgate said, the whole post is tediously detailed (and loooong) but here's one relevant part dealing with the aftermath of "incidental collection". Earlier in the piece he goes into the question of who can be monitored in the first place—and why—and when and how "incidental collection" occurs. I highly recommend you go to the link and read the whole thing. Wright is a former US Naval Intelligence officer, so he knows what he's talking about—and he knows how to write it all down, comprehensively and comprehensibly.

http://www.stonekettle.com/2017/04/unpresidented.html

• What happens if you get picked up in incidental collection is this: As soon as it's determined that a) you're an American (and thus would require a FISA warrant to monitor, which would require pretty specific and difficult to obtain probable cause), b) it was an incidental intercept, and c) your actions are innocent and of no national interest, then the recordings and data are immediately scrubbed.
  
  Yes, they are.
  
  Yes. They. Are.
  
  I have direct experience with this process. Extensive experience with this process.
  
  While there is always shady shit going at the senior levels (because that is the nature of politicians, preachers, and generals), the guys in the trenches are absolutely scrupulous about this. Because while the aforementioned senior folks get to retire with full pay if they get caught violating the law, the guys doing the work go to jail if they break the rules. And I've seen it happen.
  
  So, if the incidental intercept is innocent, it’s immediately erased.
  
  Now, while the data itself is dumped, the Intelligence Community keeps a record of the incident.
  
  Why?
  
  For several reasons:
  
  One, for legality's sake – exactly as you're seeing right now with the Trump Administration. If you accuse the government of monitoring your Christian relief organization (or your big gaudy golden dick-shaped tower in Manhattan) and you decide to sue over it, well, the only way for the government to prove its actions were lawful and that it followed the rules is to keep a record of exactly what occurred.
  
  Two, if it later turns out that your Christian relief organization is a front for running guns to Syrian loyalists in violation of US, Syrian, and international law, and some senator on a crusade decides to "investigate" why the president didn't catch this (or why, say, we didn’t get wind of a bunch of shitheads with box cutters who were planning on flying some airliners into some skyscrapers, for example), well, those records will become important (this is the kind of stuff those committees are looking at in closed door sessions). Yes, we monitored a phone call between x and y, but y was an American citizen and deemed of no intelligence value and so the data from y was erased in accordance with the rules set by congress and Executive Order. See?
  
  Three, you can’t plot a curve from one point, or even two (generally speaking). But sometimes things that appear innocent individually, aren’t when put into a larger context. In other words, you being picked up in incidental collection once is something that happens. Twice, it’s a coincidence. Three times … well, there are no coincidences in intelligence work. Let me give you an example. There’s a protest that turns violent. You happen to be passing by just when shit gets lit on fire and the windows are broken. The police arrest you for rioting. Upon questioning, it turns out you were on your way to visit your dear old grandma and you just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. So they let you go. No charges. But they keep a record. Next riot, there you are again. Crazy, officer, how these riots keep happening by Granny’s house, isn’t it? If every time there’s a riot you’re in the neighborhood, it’s not a coincidence, you’re up to something even if we can’t exactly catch you at it. That, might be enough for a warrant to look further. Same thing with incidental collection. Every time we listen into a warzone, there you are. Every time we listen to the Russians, there you are, there your friends are, there your business associates are. Now, even if we didn’t keep a recording of the actual words of the call (or the email) the fact that you keep contacting an adversary, might indicate something’s up even if the individual calls seem innocent. And that might be enough for a FISA warrant to dig deeper. That’s how you catch drug smugglers and mafia dons and spies. Or not, maybe you’re calling the Russians because you do business with them and it’s all legal and aboveboard. Maybe we keep finding you in warzones because that’s what you do, you help people in warzones. Maybe you’re at every riot because you’re an independent news photographer. But if we don’t look, we don’t know. Spies, terrorists, criminals, they depend on us not looking.
  
  And finally, Four, the nature of intelligence collection is that it’s like one of those hoarders you read about. House crammed full of useless stuff. Most of the time, most of the information you gather is useless. Just random bits and pieces that may or may not be part of some larger whole like assembling a jigsaw puzzle in the dark when you don’t know how many pieces there are, how many you actually have, if the pieces you have actually all go the same puzzle, if some of the pieces are shared by multiple puzzles, and you have no idea what the picture on the puzzle is supposed to be and besides it’s probably in a language you don’t speak, and also the guy who made the puzzle is trying to keep you from solving it by hiding pieces and feeding you wrong pieces. Also, at the same time, all of your friends are shouting suggestions and your crazy boss is telling you what he thinks it is based on his politics and not on, you know, actual information. And if you manage to assemble a picture, well, it may turn out that you’re not interested that picture after all and you just wasted your time. That’s intelligence work in the real world. It’s hard. It’s frustrating. But sometimes that useless information becomes … useful. Let me give you an example: Some guy in the White House nominates you for a federal job that requires congressional review and a security clearance. So you fill out the SF-86 (security clearance paperwork) and you testify before the committee and they ask you: in the last ten years have you had any contact with [insert adversary name here]. And you answer, under oath, no. No I have not. No contact. Nope. And while that might satisfy a sympathetic senator, the people tasked with checking that SF-86 are a lot more thorough. And they run something called a National Agency Check with Inquires, especially if you’re the guy applying for the job of, oh, let’s say, National Security Advisor. And that’s when it pops out of the database, wait, what’s this? You said you haven’t had contact with [insert adversary here] but we’ve got all these incidents of incidental collection. What the fuck? Now, we dumped the data so we don’t know what was said, but we damned well know you just lied your ass off to congress and on your security paperwork. Care to explain that, General War-Eagle? I mean if it was innocent, legal, aboveboard, why did you lie about it? Perhaps we should look further.
  
  So, the point here is that if you contact adversaries of America, innocently or otherwise, the odds are high that you'll be caught up in incidental collection.
  
  If you aren’t, then the Intelligence Community isn’t doing its goddamned job.
  

  "@FoxNews from multiple sources: 'There was electronic surveillance of Trump, and people close to Trump. This is unprecedented.' @FBI"

  
  
  These people should be monitored.
  
  If you contact our adversaries, then you should be monitored too.
  
  Let me repeat that: If you contact our adversaries, then you get monitored too, even if only incidentally.
  
  Trump is right, it is unprecedented that so many people near a presidential candidate and president elect were monitored.
  
  Because it’s unprecedented that so many people near Trump were in contact with our adversaries.
  
  What is unprecedented here is that so many people so close to the President of the United States have so many ties to foreign power brokers and were therefore caught up in intelligence collection.
  
  It is unprecedented that so many people so close to Donald Trump have been in the employment of foreign agents and foreign governments and foreign adversaries.
  
  And it is unprecedented that not a single day goes by where we don’t learn of yet another adversarial foreign connection to this administration.
  
  Once is happenstance.
  
  Twice is coincidence.
  
  Three times is … well, there are no coincidences in intelligence work.
  
  Perhaps it is innocent.
  
  Yes, perhaps it is. That is a possibility – increasingly unlikely but still possible.
  
  But if we don’t look, we will never know for certain.

[Bicycle Bill]

TRUMP'S NEWEST ADVISORS —


-"BB"-

[Lord Jim]

And the beat goes on...

FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor Trump adviser Carter Page

The FBI obtained a secret court order last summer to monitor the communications of an adviser to presidential candidate Donald Trump, part of an investigation into possible links between Russia and the campaign, law enforcement and other U.S. officials said.

The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials.

This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

Page has not been accused of any crimes, and it is unclear whether the Justice Department might later seek charges against him or others in connection with Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The counterintelligence investigation into Russian efforts to influence U.S. elections began in July, officials have said. Most such investigations don’t result in criminal charges.

The officials spoke about the court order on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss details of a counterintelligence probe.

During an interview with the Washington Post editorial page staff in March 2016, Trump identified Page, who had previously been an investment banker in Moscow, as a foreign policy adviser to his campaign. Campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks later described Page’s role as “informal.”

Page has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing in his dealings with the Trump campaign or Russia.

“This confirms all of my suspicions about unjustified, politically motivated government surveillance,” Page said in an interview Tuesday. “I have nothing to hide.” He compared surveillance of him to the eavesdropping that the FBI and Justice Department conducted against civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 3ecae1f0b8

There hasn't been a lot of media focus on this the past week because Congress has been in recess so the investigations (the one in the Senate and the newly re-invigorated investigation in the House) haven't been producing any news, but Putingate ain't going away...

This story is going to get nothing but bigger...

[Econoline]

[BoSoxGal]

[BoSoxGal]

[Lord Jim]

Trump's meeting with Russians closed to U.S. media, but not to TASS photographer

At a time of strain between the White House and the media over coverage of the new administration, reporters raised questions Wednesday as to why a photographer from the Russian media, but not the U.S. press, was apparently allowed into an Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Russian officials.

The issue surfaced after photos of the meeting, including Trump shaking hands with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and controversial Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak, appeared in the Russian media.

The images were taken by a photographer from TASS, the Russian state-owned new agency.

The issue was further inflamed by the presence of Kislyak, who has been at the center of several controversies involving administration officials, including now fired National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The Russian embassy even tweeted a photograph of Trump smiling broadly as he put his arm around the diplomat while shaking his hand in the Oval Office.



Flynn was fired in February for lying to Vice President Mike Pence by denying that he had discussed the issue of U.S. sanctions with Kislyak. Sessions recused himself from any investigations involving the Trump administration and Russia after acknowledging that he had failed to tell senators during his confirmation hearing that he had met previously with he diplomat.

In addition, Kislyak was brought into the Trump Tower in New York in December out of the sight of reporters for a meeting with Flynn and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and now senior advisor, according to The New York Times.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/201 ... 101520384/

[BoSoxGal]

I wonder if the Secret Service debugged the Oval after #45 defiled it with his Russian spy friends?

[Econoline]

• MAY 11, 2017 @ 05:04 PM
  
  Hidden Clues In The Trump-Comey Drama:
  It's Worse Than You Think
  
  Melik Kaylan, CONTRIBUTOR
  I cover conflicts, frontiers and upheavals mired in history.
  
  Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
  

  Comey was meant to function as the perfect temp: mortally wounded from his late-campaign move against Hillary, and his even later exoneration of her, he hung on by a thread. The Trumpsters merely left him in place twisting in the wind to see which way he would twist. He'd be a fool to cross them. Politically friendless, isolated, a virtual pariah whichever side he took, he looked ideally suited for the role of staying on and toeing the line. Trump was his last refuge, so they thought. Apparently, Comey couldn't bring himself to swallow that calculus. He continued to push the KremlinGate probe.
  
  Various reports claim that last week he asked for more resources from the Justice Department to do just that. If the reports are right, in so doing he revealed his true intentions, no doubt knowing that the gambit would bring a decisive response. In my experience, after years of reporting on populist regimes from Turkey to Russia to Eastern Europe, I'd say that Comey thereby delivered a stealthy ultimatum. That is to say, on thorny issues populist regimes like to create endless indecision masked by distraction and fog while they consolidate power. The Trumpsters expected Comey to temporize, keep making contradictory noises, pursue Hillary on this and Obama on that, while intermittently letting steam out of the Russia matter. They gave him some leads. Example: Jason Chaffetz's allegations that Obama's people ordered wiretapping of Trump Tower. But Comey wouldn't play along. And finally he nudged them to act.
  
  The Justice Department, for its part, firmly denies that Comey made any demand asking them for extra help on Kremlingate. Stay focused on this specific point for a moment. It speaks volumes, for this is how bureaucracies start to eat each other with a populist at the helm inciting deliberate crossfires. Back in January, I wrote a column entitled “What The Trump Era Will Feel Like: Clues From Populist Regimes Around The World”. In it, I said the following:

  Already the intelligence services and Mr. Trump have squared off. Think about what Trump will do. He will appoint new chiefs. They will fight with their rank and file. He will try to downsize and defund. There will be pushback.

  
  I went on to say “there will be incessant all against all in America's institutions... Confusion and uncertainty creates a yearning for strongman rule.” And finally this: “no normalization happens under the corrective effect of institutions. Instead institutions themselves get eroded.” In this case, we have a letter dated May 9 from the Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who recused himself from the Russia probe, asking that the very guy in charge of it be removed. And the by-now notorious letter from his Deputy AG, Rod Rosenstein, critiquing Comey. As state institutions grind away against each other what happens? The end goal: deadlock of due process while the strong leader takes the strategic heights of state power. That's what Putin did, Erdogan, Chavez et al. In truth, one can't imagine Donald Trump having the deep Machiavellian patience to click all the pieces into place over time. So is it all just a paranoid fever-dream, our sense that Trump is pushing a hidden agenda? No, he's working from a blueprint already extant and well-utilized by leaders in several countries – and they don't need to be geniuses. The Kremlin invented it, just as it invented the worldwide Marxist uprising script during the Soviet era. Remember my article on how all Trump's campaign tactics had been tried in the Tbilisi, Georgia election of 2012 by the pro-Russia candidate? And tried successfully.
  
  Several signposts indicate the lineaments of a crafted process. How do populists gradually take over? They exclude and arrest journalists – already happening. They create beholden oligarchs – see Vanity Fair's piece about Trump's coup over the Comptroller's office. They especially create favored media oligarchs – see Sinclair Broadcast Group's recent acquisitions. They create incessant noise and fog. And as we see they set the state against itself. Among other things.
  
  In short, Trump is getting expert guidance. One can continue disbelieving one's eyes because the whole notion seems so preposterous. Until, it's a fait accompli. But surely, one might think, nothing like this can be happening to the indomitably democratic United States. This isn't Venezuela or Turkey, after all. True enough. The audacious scenario may yet be foiled. The American system is likely too transparent and too sensitive to public oversight. But just because such a plot might be foiled doesn't mean it's not happening. Consider one indelible detail: Trump recieves Lavrov publicly at the height of the outcry, the two of them laughing, backslapping, making a lurid display of triumph. Classic Putinist Theater. Commit every outrage openly but distort the optics so the public just can't believe what it sees. Rub their noses in it but continue to obfuscate. Hence the 'little green men' of the Crimea invasion, the 'popular uprising' in Ukraine's Donbass, the 'accidental' shoot-down of civilian airliner MH-17, the thinly disguised cyber-assaults on Western elections. You're witnessing a particularly distinctive KGB psy-ops technique infused with that tell-tale element of sadism. Attack, then laugh in their faces. We're talking about a kind of psychological fingerprint, a style, emanating out of a specific center of power.
  
  Still incredulous? We will soon know from whatever legal and political time-delay fuses Comey left behind. Word is leaking profusely that multiple indictment-requests from the FBI to the Justice Department will emerge soonest. It's very curious that Comey demanded fresh resources from Justice to pursue Kremlingate. He didn't have sufficient manpower? Or finances? Hard to believe. In fact, the request seems so odd that I fully believe he did indeed make the request. Because it tells a story. Comey likely wanted to lay a trail. He passed the buck to the Justice Department so that no one could accuse him of inaction, the kind of inaction that Trumpsters wanted. He had waited long enough. He had prepared the groundwork. Now he needed to make it clear where the obstacle lay: not with him but with the Attorney General's office. They, in turn, are now backtracking on their role in firing Comey, at least Rod Rosentein is. He denies pushing for Comey's resignation despite the evidence of his letter. He blames Trump. Trump takes credit. He's the strong leader amid the chaos he created.
  
  All of which may indicate that the American system is healthy and transparent and working fine. Or that the plan to deadlock the gears is well under way.

[Burning Petard]

All the lies, contradictions, ignorance, ineptitude coming out of the White House is irrelevant. The political strategy and tactics described in the above link from Forbes and Melik Kaylan are about a different game. That explains the way Trump keeps winning. This is not the politics you learned in grade school. It is anti-democractic Republic.

The NY Times columnist Charles Sykes today says something similar, from a different perspective. The headline is "If Liberals Hate Him, Then Trump Must Be Doing Something Right" Please note the game now is emotion, subjective feelings.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/opin ... inion&_r=0

From the Sykes piece: ". . . Conservatism, with its belief in ordered liberty is being eclipsed by something different: Loathing those who loathe the president. Rabid anti-anti-Trumpism. . . . For years Mr. Limbaugh ran what he called the 'Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies.' But in the Trump era. . . he has changed that to the 'Institute for Advance Anti-Leftist Studies.' . . . . Here is how it works: Rather than defend President Trump's specific actions, his conservative champions change the subject to (1) the biased 'fake news' media, (2) over-the-top liberals, (3) hypocrites on the left,(4) whataboutism, as in 'what about Obama, what about Clinton'."

The Secretary of State has explained American foreign policy is no longer about 'values' like human rights, freedom, self-determination. Now it is about power and better deals for America [defined as more money flowing to the top one percent]

The GOP is pretty close to achieving the goal announced for Bush 43--we create our own reality.

snailgate