Special Election In Georgia...

[Burning Petard]

The election is not until late June. Many (and sometimes most) voter do not make their choice until the last 24 hours and sometimes not even 24 seconds before marking the ballot.

All these polls are just media efforts to turn the election into a sporting event and the candidates efforts to use the polls as a lever to get more money and motivate their voters.

[Scooter]

'I Do Not Support a Livable Wage': Watch Karen Handel Throw Her Congressional Race Against Jon Ossoff Off a Cliff

Karen Handel is running against Jon Ossoff in a special Georgia election to fill a U.S. House of Representatives seat opened when President Donald Trump nominated Rep. Tom Price to be Secretary of Health and Human Services. Handel previously ran for the U.S. Senate and lost, but she perhaps is best known as he woman who almost single handedly ruined the reputation of breast cancer nonprofit Komen for the Cure, when she tried to defund its support of Planned Parenthood.

Tuesday night Handel, formerly Georgia's Secretary of State, sowed the seeds of yet another loss.

During a simple debate on the minimum wage, Ossoff, a political newcomer, elegantly and strongly defended the need for a livable wage.

When it was Handel's turn, she began by stating that the issue was a defining one, a "fundamental difference," between liberals and conservatives.

"I do not support a livable wage," Handel told Georgia voters. She did not stop or correct herself, she plowed right through, tossing her congressional race chances off a cliff. Handel warned a "livable wage" could harm small businesses, saying they create good paying jobs.

"What I support is making sure that we have an economy that is robust with low taxes and less regulation," Handel insisted.

The Ossoff campaign did not wait long to capitalize on Handel's remarks.

[rubato]

Speaking of a livable wage:

http://livingwage.mit.edu/


yrs,
rubato

[RayThom]

I do not support a livable wage," Handel told Georgia voters. She did not stop or correct herself, she plowed right through, tossing her congressional race chances off a cliff. Handel warned a "livable wage" could harm small businesses, saying they create good paying jobs...

As if that's going to make a difference. Her base is Lord Dampnut's base.

Handel by a nose.

[Lord Jim]

"I do not support a livable wage,"

Wow, what a rookie mistake....

You NEVER accept your opponent's feel-good rhetorical construct as a basis for your response...

That's something you should learn on your first day in class in Running For Political Office 101...

What Handel did would be like a liberal Democrat, in a discussion about "Right to Work" laws saying , "I do not support a right to work"...

Here's what she should have said:


"Of course I believe that every American worker should be able to earn a livable wage. No decent person could possibly oppose that.

But in claiming that this will be achieved through the imposition of a mis-named, so-called "Livable wage" law, my opponent is perpetrating a cruel hoax on the working people of this district...

The way you raise the wages for the hard-working people of Georgia's 6th, is to create an environment of economic growth that enables the small, local businesses that provide the bulk of the jobs here to flourish...

You don't do it by imposing appealing-sounding government mandates that will have the practical effect of crushing many of these businesses, assuring that many people will receive no wages at all."



(Ms. Handel, you will find the invoice for my consulting fee in your email in-box....)

[rubato]

She ran for Governor, and lost, and then was fired as the head of the Susan G. Komen foundation for trying to de-fund Planned Parenthood. She was a whiny asshole afterwards and blamed Planned Parenthood, whom she was trying to destroy, for being 'bullies'.

We used to have a living wage for more people back when we had unions to provide something more like democracy in the workplace. As unions have gone away so have decent wages and benefits. The median income for males in the US has declined since 1970.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_ ... ted_States

Inflation-adjusted income for males in 1970 was $42,270 in 2004 it was $39,740.

Seattle and several other places have been doing the experiment of raising minimum wages and so far the predictions of increasing unemployment have failed to be fulfilled.


yrs,
rubato

[dales]

The minimum wage is so 20th century.

This is what might be on the horizon:

Universal Basic Income - From Wiki:

On 4 October 2013, Swiss activists from Generation Grundeinkommen organized a performance in Bern in which roughly 8 million coins, one coin representing one person out of Switzerland's population, were dumped on a public square. This was done in celebration of the successful collection of more than 125,000 signatures, forcing the government to hold a referendum on whether or not to incorporate the concept of basic income in the Federal constitution. The measure did not pass, with 76.9% voting against basic income.[1]
A basic income (also called basic income guarantee, Citizen's Income, unconditional basic income, universal basic income (UBI), or universal demogrant[2]) is a form of social security[3] in which all citizens or residents of a country regularly receive a regular, unconditional sum of money, either from a government or some other public institution, in addition to any income received from elsewhere.

Many basic income supporters believe that it should be enough to meet a person's basic needs. For this reason, an unconditional income transfer of less than the poverty line is sometimes called a partial basic income while one greater than that level is sometimes called a full basic income.

Basic income systems that are financed by the profits of publicly owned enterprises (often called social dividend, also known as citizen's dividend) are major components in many proposed models of market socialism.[4] Basic income schemes have also been promoted within the context of capitalist systems, where they would be financed through various forms of taxation,[5] although basic income could be paired with virtually any form of economic organization whether capitalist or socialist

More Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

[Lord Jim]

Georgia Special Election Between Handel and Ossoff Too Close to Call, Poll Suggests

Democrat Jon Ossoff holds a very slight lead over Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District as Tuesday’s much-anticipated special election runoff approaches.

The most recent poll, from Atlanta local television station WSB and Landmark Communications, has Ossoff up by just under two points. Ossoff is supported by 49.7 percent of likely voters, while 48 percent support Handel.

The runoff election in the traditionally solidly Republican district has attracted immense national attention as Democrats look for their first major electoral victory during President Donald Trump’s presidency. It is the most expensive congressional race in history, with over $50 million spent, [about 30 million for the Democrat and 20 million for the Republican] mostly from out-of-state donors.

"Ossoff has the lead.… Handel is very close behind him,” pollster Mark Rountree told WSB. “So either candidate could win.”

Ossoff and Handel are running to fill the seat left vacant by Tom Price, appointed by Trump as secretary of health and human services. Ossoff, a former congressional staffer, nearly won the election outright with 48.1 percent in the primary. Handel, the former Georgia secretary of state, topped nearly a dozen other Republicans with just under 20 percent of the total vote.

Both sides have poured money into the campaign, which many are calling a referendum on Trump. The poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters, found that 91 percent of Ossoff voters had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 78 percent of Handel voters have a favorable opinion of the president. While Price won the suburban Atlanta seat by 23 points in 2016, Trump only edged Clinton by 1.5 points.

In response to the poll, Handel and Ossoff both said the race was too close to call.

http://www.newsweek.com/georgia-special ... oll-627208

If the Dems are going to have any realistic chance of retaking the House, these are the kinds of seats they're going to need to able to win...

[Scooter]

I'm not sure that a seat that Republicans should be taking by 20 or 30 points, based on their electoral history, should be seen as indicative of how Democrats might fare in 2018, but it is probably fair to say that a loss here will seriously deflate Democratic momentum moving towards the midterms.

If they win, however, Paul Ryan shouldn't waste any time in beginning to clear out the speaker's office.

[Lord Jim]

The number I'm pointing to specifically is this one:

Trump only edged Clinton by 1.5 points.

In order to get to the number they need to retake the House, they are going to need to be able to win in districts where Trump beat Clinton by two points or less. That's the only way the math works.

[Scooter]

One thing I do expect to see, should the Dems win this one, is a House Republican caucus far less amenable to doing Lord Dampnut's bidding. Which should already have been a given after his latest characterization of the health care bill that he pressured them into passing.

[Lord Jim]

One thing I do expect to see, should the Dems win this one, is a House Republican caucus far less amenable to doing Lord Dampnut's bidding.

That is certainly my hope, and the reason I am rooting for Ossoff to win tomorrow...

BTW, I'm certainly not saying that if the Dems don't win in Georgia tomorrow, they can't retake the House...

It's definitely very possible (indeed probable, when one looks at the likely future of investigative action and legislative inaction) that Trump's popularity will continue on it's downward trajectory, making districts like this one even stronger prospects for Democratic pick-ups by the fall of 2018 then this one is now...

[Scooter]

Apparently there is heavy rain expected in the Atlanta area today, with an unknown effect on each party's turnout.

[Lord Jim]

Well, on the one hand:

The heaviest rain across Georgia's 6th District tapered off Tuesday afternoon, but voters participating in the closely watched special congressional election in Atlanta's northern suburbs are still dealing with flooding that could impact the vote.

Parts of the district were still under a flash flood warning Tuesday evening after more than a month's rain fell in a matter of ours in some places — especially Democratic-leaning areas of the district.

At DeKalb-Peachtree Airport, which sits in the state's 5th District but is close to a heavily Democratic part of the 6th District, 4.8 inches of rain fell between noon and 6 p.m. Eastern Time. Over the past 30 years, the average rainfall for the entire month of June in the Atlanta area is 3.95 inches.

But in Cobb County, home to more Republican voters, far less rain has fallen. As of 6 p.m. at Dobbins Air Force Base in Marietta, just 0.95 inches of rain had fallen.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/2 ... ing-239769

But then on the other hand:

Jim Galloway of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is warning that the heavy rain in the Sixth District could depress turnout for Republican Karen Handel in the House special election.

“Ossoff’s built his campaign around early voting. I think he pulled forty-eight percent in that April vote, but he pulled sixty-two, sixty-three percent of early voters, so Handel’s voters are the ones who show up on the day of voting.”

http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/20/ ... rnout.html

Nearly 150,000 people have already cast ballots in early voting — nearly three times the early vote in April, when only 193,000 ballots were cast over all. Nearly 40,000 people who have voted early in the runoff did not vote at all in April.

Both campaigns have welcomed the additional voters. But the new voters are far younger, somewhat more diverse, and much less likely ever to have voted in a Democratic or Republican primary than the voters who turned out in April. All of which bodes well for Mr. Ossoff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/us/p ... ction.html

[Burning Petard]

This Georgia congressional district if one of about 15 such districts in the nation where a majority of the registered voters have a college degree. That is usually taken as a strong liberal/democrat base. Unfortunately that 'base' also votes much less than many other groups.

Lots of early voting. Weather was good for the election today. So much money was spent on this one congressional seat that the spending looked more like a national election. Best guess is about 60 million.

If the Dems cannot take this one, they look very feeble indeed.

Later edit. I was wrong about the weather There was locally heavy raining that district today
snailgate.

[Lord Jim]

Live results:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/resul ... off-handel

[Scooter]

The polls were clearly correct in calling this a tossup.

[Guinevere]

So close. It's going to be a long long night.

And I disagree that if they lose the Dems will look feeble. It's not a District they would be competitive in in any other year. But that doesn't make it a slam dunk. It would be a great pick up, but it's still early to be making many predictions about the fall of 2018 and which bellweathers will be meaningful and which will

[Burning Petard]

Interesting. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution web page says two voting places had problems and stayed open 'til 7:30. That paper also differs from the NY Times link above and says that the early votes will be tallied last, after the votes cast today.

snailgate

[Scooter]

Handel looks to be pulling way out in front. Doesn't look like this one is meant to be.