Heading Towards A Shutdown...

Lord Jim · Post by **Lord Jim** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:35 pm

Maybe they'll work out something like a five day extension, but a shutdown is beginning to look more likely than not:

Trump and Schumer End Private Talks with ‘Progress’ but No Deal

• The government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Saturday if lawmakers fail to get an agreement on some kind of spending bill.

• On Thursday night, the House passed a short-term extension that would fund the government until mid-February.

• In the Senate, Democrats appear ready to block any deal, gambling that President Trump will have to offer concessions to avoid a shutdown.

Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, wrapped up a closed-door meeting with President Trump at the White House, with no imminent deal to avert a shutdown.

Mr. Schumer told reporters outside the Capitol: “We had a long and detailed meeting. We discussed all of the major outstanding issues. We made some progress, but we still have a good number of disagreements. The discussions will continue.”

A senior White House official gave a less-sunny summary of the meeting, suggesting it was “cordial” but that a lengthy list of obstacles still remains.

Mr. Trump, who headed into the situation room for a briefing soon after the meeting, was alone in the room with Mr. Schumer and their chiefs of staff.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, John F. Kelly, had told him that no deal had been struck at the White House meeting.

“He said there were no agreements with Senator Schumer, and the president told him to go back and talk to Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and work it out,” Mr. Cornyn told reporters.

It was unclear when — or if — the Senate would vote on the measure passed by the House Thursday night to fund the federal government until February 16.

Mr. Trump canceled plans to travel to his Florida resort on Friday and will stay in Washington until a spending bill is passed, a White House official said Friday morning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/p ... tdown.html

Big RR · Post by **Big RR** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:41 pm

Mr. Trump canceled plans to travel to his Florida resort on Friday and will stay in Washington until a spending bill is passed, a White House official said Friday morning.

One would hope; discretionary travel should be avoided during a shutdown, lest you windup klooking like Christie wallowing on the beach he closed during the NJ shutdown

RayThom · Post by **RayThom** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:09 am

This will teach those obstructionist Dems to fuck around with Lord Dampnut's golf game.

Government Shuts Down as Bill to Extend Funding is Blocked; Senators Continue to Seek Deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/p ... tdown.html

George Takei (@GeorgeTakei)
It takes a certain level of incompetence to trigger a shutdown of the government when you control both houses of Congress and the White House. And yet here we are.

Scooter · Post by **Scooter** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:21 am

That article has Mitch McConnell voting no on his own motion, can that be right? Or is it a procedural tactic - under Canadian parliamentary rules, a member can move to reconsider a motion if he/she voted with the prevailing side; if a similar rule exists in the U.S. Senate, perhaps that is the right McConnell was preserving for himself on a motion he knew would be defeated.

Lord Jim · Post by **Lord Jim** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:36 pm

The history of government shutdowns is that while they are unpopular with the public when they happen, there hasn't been any political price paid for them:

Shutdown? It Could Be Forgotten in a Trumpian Flash

WASHINGTON — In the fall of 2013, Republican hard-liners engineered a 16-day shutdown of the federal government, implausibly insisting that President Barack Obama acquiesce to their demand that the Affordable Care Act be stripped of all funding.

The gambit failed miserably. The Republican Party’s already low standing in public opinion polls plunged further. Mr. Obama and Democratic lawmakers were widely seen as victorious.

Then the following November, something happened that plainly informed the moves of Democrats today as they drove the government toward another shutdown: Voters handed Republicans overwhelming victories and a Senate majority — in large part because of dissatisfaction with the man in the White House. The shutdown was a distant memory.

“I don’t think anybody paid a big price for it,” Senator Joe Manchin III, a West Virginia Democrat who is facing a competitive re-election race this fall, said of the 2014 election.

For Democrats on the ballot in many of the states that President Trump carried, the fresh government shutdown is unmistakably perilous, especially if it is seen as a strong-armed move to protect undocumented immigrants brought to this country illegally as children. And Mr. Manchin voted to keep the government open, as did four other Trump-state Democrats.

But that was not enough to stop the first shuttering of the government since that 2013 showdown. In the runup, Democrats betrayed little nervousness about pushing a shutdown, because they believe any immediate backlash will be long forgotten in a midterm election destined to revolve around another, even more polarizing president.

If voters had forgotten the shutdown months later in 2013, they may forget it even more quickly in 2018. In the dizzying news cycle of the Trump era, voters can hardly remember what happened a few days ago.

Mr. Trump is not just historically unpopular; he is also central to voter perceptions of the Republican Party — a lesson Republicans ruefully learned in the electoral wipeouts they suffered in Virginia and New Jersey last November.

An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Friday found that 38 percent of voters said they wanted to send a message of opposition to Mr. Trump with their midterm vote, the highest figure making such a statement since Democrats reclaimed both chambers of Congress in 2006.

The shutdown of 2013 and another in 1995 featured a deft Democratic politician in the White House who skillfully directed voter anger to the Republicans in Congress. President Bill Clinton was able to blame Newt Gingrich, the House speaker at the time, even after he vetoed spending bills that would have kept the government open.

This time around, Democrats in Congress are confident that they can rely on Mr. Trump’s inevitable outbursts to motivate their base and win over moderates. That confidence has emboldened Democrats to engage in some brinkmanship that they may have steered away from with a less bombastic figure in the White House.

More:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/p ... tdown.html

A CNN poll splits the blame for the shutdown between Trump, The Congressional GOP, and the Congressional Dems:

Overall, about half of Americans say they would blame either Trump (21%) or his Republican counterparts in Congress (26%) should Congress fail to fund the government by the midnight Friday deadline. About a third, 31%, say they would hold the Democrats in Congress responsible, and another 10% say they'd blame all three groups.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/politics/ ... index.html

You can put me in the 10% that blames all three...

It's true that Trump blew up the whole process of reaching an agreement that included a immigration deal with his sandbagging of Graham and Durbin when they presented the bipartisan proposal. (And of course, his racist "shithole" comment.)

But it's also true that the bill under consideration, which included a six year extension of funding for the CHIPS program in exchange for only a 3 week budget extension (which would still have left plenty of time to negociate immigration before DACA is currently set to expire) would have given the Dems one win while not giving up the leverage of taking a shutdown stand over DACA later.

Government shutdowns are an enormous waste of taxpayer money:

The 2013 shutdown cost the economy an estimated $20 billion,[That's more than a billion dollars a day; that shut down lasted 16 days] according to an estimate from Moody's Analytics. An official government estimate said it shaved 0.3% percentage points off of the nation's gross domestic product that quarter, the broad measure of overall economic activity.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/19/news/ec ... index.html

And the record shows that they are also a wash politically, bringing neither cost nor benefit to either side...

All of which makes government shutdowns nothing but a stupid and pointless waste money.

Burning Petard · Post by **Burning Petard** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:38 pm

The noise from my Senators (both Democrat) is/was that the GOP refused to deal with 'The Dreamers" and DACA.

The Lord and all you readers here know I am no supporter of POTUS or the GOP. Yet, there is DACA.

The "D" in DACA does not stand for Dreamer. It is for DIFERRED ! Yes, the dreamers are victims of actions by someone else. Yes something ought to be done to recognize their potential as valuable parts of USA society. But I have found no dictionary that defines deferred as 'ain't never gonna happen.' Unless congress, in all its parts and factions and divisions change the laws, 'dreamers' have no legal reason to not be deported. IMNSHO, it is a basic, foundational, danger to select any law and announce from the top, that it will not be enforced by those who have taken an oath to enforce all laws.

If the law is bad, change it.

snailgate

BoSoxGal · Post by **BoSoxGal** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:07 pm

Trump is keeping parks, monuments open and various other things that Obama closed in 2013 - so the great majority of people won't even feel the shut-down, mostly reserve and active duty troops, their families, and federal government workers will take the hit. Tax refunds will go out more slowly, too.

Crackpot · Post by **Crackpot** » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:40 pm

The deferred applies to the deprioritization of people under in thier situation until the larger questions are answered. i.e. we shouldn’t be deporting these people until we can come up with
A consistent answer to the larger immigration problem.

Econoline · Post by **Econoline** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:44 am

[wesw]For your musical pleasure...a little sumpin' to get you in the mood [/wesw]

Econoline · Post by **Econoline** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:04 am

Lord Jim · Post by **Lord Jim** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:36 pm

Gotta hand it to that great deal maker, Donald Trump...

There's no smarter way to strike a deal with people you need to reach an agreement, then to accuse them of complicity in multiple murders:

New Trump ad calls Democrats 'complicit' in all murders by illegal immigrants

The Trump campaign released a new ad spot on Saturday calling Democrats "complicit" in all murders by immigrants in the country illegally, following the opposition of Democratic senators to a short-term spending bill, which resulted in a federal government shutdown on Friday.

"President Trump is right — build the wall, deport criminals, stop illegal immigration now," the ad says, showing clips of Democratic Minority Leaders Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) "Democrats who stand in our way will be complicit in every murder committed by illegal immigrants."

The campaign forwarded the video ad, titled "Complicit" on the first anniversary of Trump's inauguration, after most Senate Democrats voted against the spending patch because Republicans would not offer to include legislation protecting thousands of immigrants brought to the country illegally as children from deportation.

Trump faulted Democrats for the shutdown early on Saturday, saying the party wants "unchecked illegal immigration."

The president has previously signaled he is open to a fix for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program after rescinding it last year, but attacked Democrats for refusing to get behind increased border security in exchange for securing votes for the spending bill.

Democrats have targeted Republicans for using the Children's Health Insurance Program as a bargaining chip, and have blamed Trump's "chaotic" majority party for allowing the shutdown to happen on its watch.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- ... by-illegal

RayThom · Post by **RayThom** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:01 pm

Damn! That tears it. Drumpf has finally stepped over the line. He'll never get a higher approval rating now.

Econoline · Post by **Econoline** » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:25 pm

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Calling it “the least I can do for my country,” the White House press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, said on Saturday morning that she would lie for free during the government shutdown.

“Now more than ever it’s important that the stream of falsehoods and distortions from this White House continues to flow in a steady and uninterrupted fashion,” Sanders said. “To achieve that, for the duration of the government shutdown I will be lying on a pro-bono basis.”

Sanders said that Donald Trump had asked that she keep a full accounting of the lies she told during the shutdown so that she could be reimbursed for them later, but she turned down that offer. “I’ve often said that I like to lie so much I would do it for free,” she said. “This is a chance to put my money where my mouth is.”

The press secretary said that her offer had already inspired other top Administration figures to lie for free during the shutdown, including Vice-President Mike Pence, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and White House doctor Ronny Jackson.

After making her announcement, Sanders moved on to a broad range of other topics, including her assertion that the government had not shut down.

Bicycle Bill · Post by **Bicycle Bill** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:00 am

"Democrats who stand in our way will be complicit in every murder committed by illegal immigrants."

Only if Republicans accept that because of their perennial support of the NRA and their refusal to enact meaningful restrictions on things like 'bump stocks' and high-capacity magazines for semi-automatic firearms, they are complicit in every multiple murder (like Las Vegas or Sandy Hook) committed by a 'real American' with a gun.

-"BB"-

Bicycle Bill · Post by **Bicycle Bill** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:33 am

Just a few weeks after the 2013 government shutdown was resolved, Donald Trump published a tweet offering his definition of leadership:
“Whatever happens, you’re responsible.  If it doesn’t happen, you’re responsible.”

In 2011, when Republicans appeared poised to shut down the government, Trump sat down with NBC’s Meredith Vieira and focused his attention on one man: Barack Obama.
       VIEIRA: So if there were a partial shutdown of the government come Friday, that would be OK with you.

       TRUMP: In my opinion – you know, I hear the Democrats are going to be blamed and the Republicans are going to be blamed.
       I actually think the president would be blamed.  If there is a shutdown, and it’s not going to be a horrible shutdown because,
       as you know, things will sort of keep going…  If there is a shutdown I think it would be a tremendously negative mark on the
       president of the United States.  He’s the one that has to get people together.

He kept going (and going).  “I’m a deal man,” Trump added.  “I’ve made hundreds and hundreds of deals and transactions.  He never did deals before.  How can you expect a man that’s not a deal man that never did a deal, other than frankly becoming president of the United States, he never did a deal, how’s he going to corral all these people to get them to do a deal?”

Asked how he would prevent a shutdown, Trump boasted, “I would get everybody together and we’d have a budget and it would get done.”  Reminded that the relevant officials had already gotten together, he added, “[T]hey don’t have the right leader.  You don’t have the right leader.”
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -haunt-him

So there you have it. By his own standards, and in his own words, we don't have the right leader.

-"BB"-

Big RR · Post by **Big RR** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:04 pm

“[T]hey don’t have the right leader. You don’t have the right leader.”

Lord Jim · Post by **Lord Jim** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:26 pm

Schumer: Deal reached to reopen government

Washington (CNN)Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Monday that he and Senate GOP leaders have reached a deal to reopen the government, and the chamber is on track to pass a plan to keep the government funded for three weeks.

"We will vote today to reopen the government," Schumer said on the Senate floor, saying he and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had reached an "arrangement."

The movement comes thanks in part to commitments from McConnell and other Republicans in bipartisan meetings, according to four Democratic sources. Those sources say at least three Democratic senators who were no's before now plan to vote yes.

The Senate passed the procedural vote allowing the bill to advance 81-18. A vote on final passage is expected later Monday afternoon.

After the bill passes through the Senate, it will then go back to the House. House GOP lawmakers are largely united and it is expected to pass. But without a guarantee that the House will take up the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is planning to vote no, according to a senior Democratic source. That source said a large chunk of Democratic caucus is expected to remain opposed, but GOP leaders feel confident they won't need much help approving the latest stopgap bill.

The vote came several hours after the workday for hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal employees was supposed to have begun, and it comes three days after the government officially shut down Friday at midnight.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/22/politics ... index.html

This looks like a complete cave-in by the Dems to me. (But politically they may have had no choice because the shut-down was not playing well for them outside the hardcore of their base.)

Yesterday, I heard talk about a similar deal, but it also involved getting a commitment from Ryan to follow a similar procedure in the House. Without that, this agreement is pretty much meaningless.

The Senate passed a bipartisan immigration and border security bill in 2013 that was far more comprehensive than anything being envisioned now, and it never even got a vote in the House; Boehner refused to bring it to the floor because of the so called "Hastert Rule" requiring a majority of the GOP caucus to support any legislation brought up for a vote.

(This decision has long been my greatest criticism of Boehner. Yes, if he'd put the Senate bill on the floor it probably would have cost him his Speakership two years earlier than when he left, but we'd have the whole immigration issue in the rear view mirror, and we might even have been spared Trump's election. I wonder how John feels about that decision in retrospect...)

Econoline · Post by **Econoline** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:08 am

Pretty good summary (from the WaPo):

Ten things that just happened (aside from the government reopening)
By Jennifer Rubin | January 22 at 1:52 PM

The Senate and the House will vote to end the shutdown and reopen the government. At first blush, it seems as though nothing happened, and that we will be right back in the same place when the new bill’s funding runs out on February 8.

However, ten things did change, some more important than others:

1. As part of the funding bill, Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, will be reauthorized for six years. Nine million kids won’t be held hostage when the next budget impasse comes around. It is noteworthy that Democrats got that without giving up a substantive trade-off (other than re-opening the government).

2. The promise by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to put a bill on the floor to address the DACA issue by Feb. 8 is a head-scratcher. Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) — the minority leader who is already being pummeled by immigration activists — said: “The process will be neutral and fair to all sides. We expect that a bipartisan bill on [the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program] will receive fair consideration and an up-or-down vote on the floor.” Democrats expect that, and McConnell promised an up-or-down vote (and how could he, really?). But his promise does not and cannot bind the House.

3. Both sides know better than to negotiate with President Trump. Removing him from the equation, thereby diminishing the influence of senior adviser and anti-immigrant hardliner Stephen Miller, should make a deal possible. The great dealmaker has been sent out to pasture (or to Davos, if you prefer). Trump was exposed as a non-player, a hazard to dealmaking. That’s quite a blow to his brand.

4. This is about putting the screws to the House. The Senate, if possible, will pass a bill and then, as they like to say, “jam” the House. The bill and possibly continued funding will then rest with the House. Whether House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) has the nerve to bring a DACA bill to the floor (and actually act on his sympathetic rhetoric!) is a big open question. Making House Republicans the bad guys on this may help Democrats’ chances in the midterm elections, but the path to putting an actual bill on the president’s desk is murky at best. As former Department of Justice spokesman Matthew Miller tweeted, “I don’t think people analyzing the politics of this have considered how bad the situation will be for the GOP if the Senate passes a DACA bill, the House doesn’t, and deportations start in the months before the midterms.” Perhaps.

5. The Democratic base will be very, very angry. If reactions by progressive senators and pro-immigration groups are any sign, they already are. Whether it reopens the Hillary-Bernie divide remains a question. Democrats did not do a good job of managing expectations (or alternatively, according to DACA advocates, they lost nerve). It’s not clear what the lasting damage will be.

6. The ugly face of Republicans’ xenophobic base was revealed. If the Democrats are smart, they will use it to register and turn out voters in places such as Texas.

7. It is unlikely to matter by the midterms. Especially during the Trump era, the sheer volume of news cycles between now and then should make this a distant memory. (If you recall, the GOP staged and lost a government shutdown in 2013, and then won big in 2014.)

8. No one looks good in a shutdown. It will likely to add to the cynicism among voters and drive Congress’s poll numbers even lower.

9. A big question will be how influential the moderates who began to talk during the shutdown will be. If they can come up with a truly bipartisan bill and put it on the floor (they’ll have enough to break a filibuster), something might actually get done — both on this and other issues.

10. Unfortunately, our adversaries got a good look at Trump’s confusion, lack of control and inability to work his way through a mini-crisis. This cannot be comforting for our democratic allies.

Econoline · Post by **Econoline** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:47 am

Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico...

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