Election 2020

[Sue U]

Econoline is right (as is Robyn Pennacchia). This election is not about Dems having to court some imaginary centrist/independent/never-Trumper. This election is about the 77,000 votes spread out across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that swung the Electoral College to Trump. Hillary Clinton won the last presidential election by 3 million votes, so it is simply a lie to say she was a bad candidate who didn't appeal to the majority of voters. Had 1% or 2% more of white suburban women in those three states voted Clinton instead of Trump in 2016 -- or had they just stayed home! -- President Clinton II would now be touting her clear electoral mandate in gearing up for reelection. And given the fact that GOP (and independent) women are increasingly abandoning Trump, that's where this election is headed.

Democrats will likely win the popular vote in 2020 almost regardless of who the nominee is. Given where the population of the country actually resides, however, the key in 2020 will be Democratic turnout in 3 or 4 out of 6 swing states. If the Bernie Bros and purity ponies stop sulking and actually vote along with the angry soccer moms, Trump will be out like last week's garbage, which he is.

The Number One (and Two through Twenty) threat to the United States, democracy in general and Planet Earth overall is Donald Trump. All other policy issues take a back seat to getting rid of that asshole.

[Scooter]

[Big RR]

While I agree 100%, I think another message needs to be sent as well:

Dear DNC and Democratic party regulars; an election will be held in 2020 that can conceivably remove Donald Trump from the presidency--this must be our collective goal. To do so, we h have to energize voters to turn out in droves at the polls. The democrats did just that in 2018, gaining the majority in the House, and it can do so again if it stays true to the same course. This means endorsing who ever wins and not playing games with the votes at the convention (like in 2016); it also means that you may have a candidate more progressive than the powers that be like or think is electable. But the important point is that you need to listen to the people and respect their wishes because we can't afford even some of them to become disenchanted and stay home; as stupid as that sounds, given enough frustration, some will do just that. So get used to listening rather than telling or manipulating and start doing it NOW.

[Burning Petard]

But don't forget all the state houses and the apportionment from the census. The GOP in many states have stripped powers from the governor and pulled other power grabs. The GOP must be buried in this election. State houses, the federal Senate and the federal House of Reps, not just the White House.

BUT ! ! ! If that happens there must not be a tit-for-tat 'now it is our turn to turn the screws.' Rather the Dems must act at every level for the Common Good, not for revenge or how to stay in power in 2022.

Is that too much to hope for?

snailgate.

[Guinevere]

Econoline is right (as is Robyn Pennacchia). This election is not about Dems having to court some imaginary centrist/independent/never-Trumper. This election is about the 77,000 votes spread out across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that swung the Electoral College to Trump. Hillary Clinton won the last presidential election by 3 million votes, so it is simply a lie to say she was a bad candidate who didn't appeal to the majority of voters. Had 1% or 2% more of white suburban women in those three states voted Clinton instead of Trump in 2016 -- or had they just stayed home! -- President Clinton II would now be touting her clear electoral mandate in gearing up for reelection. And given the fact that GOP (and independent) women are increasingly abandoning Trump, that's where this election is headed.

Democrats will likely win the popular vote in 2020 almost regardless of who the nominee is. Given where the population of the country actually resides, however, the key in 2020 will be Democratic turnout in 3 or 4 out of 6 swing states. If the Bernie Bros and purity ponies stop sulking and actually vote along with the angry soccer moms, Trump will be out like last week's garbage, which he is.

The Number One (and Two through Twenty) threat to the United States, democracy in general and Planet Earth overall is Donald Trump. All other policy issues take a back seat to getting rid of that asshole.

1000% correct. Now let’s do this.

[Crackpot]

Why is the goal merely to get just enough votes to win. Why the fuck are both the parties afraid to run people with broad popular appeal?

It is a symptom of the larger problem that the parties no longer exist to serve the people but their own interests.

[Sue U]

Why is the goal merely to get just enough votes to win. Why the fuck are both the parties afraid to run people with broad popular appeal?

It is a symptom of the larger problem that the parties no longer exist to serve the people but their own interests.

Crackpot, this is a bad take. Political parties never existed simply to "serve the people"; they have always existed to articulate and implement a particular group's policy agenda, and in a democracy policy does not get implemented unless a sufficient number of like-minded people wield the political power to do so. The modern Democratic and Republican parties provide a framework of organizational support for a particular set of policies, but individual candidates who choose to run for either party's nomination are free to adopt or reject any of them and to create their own agenda and priorities. Anybody can run for president -- and judging from the 2016 Republicans and the 2020 Democrats everybody does. By definition, the person who wins a party's nomination and the general election have sufficient popular appeal to exercise the power of government to enact those policies they see as serving "the people." But determining exactly which of "the people" get "served" is kinda the entire point of politics.

Donald Trump was not so much "run" by the GOP as the GOP was hijacked by an extremist faction taking advantage of a splintered leadership to seize power.

[Guinevere]

Not to mention how does running a candidate who wins the popular vote by 3million votes not count as "broad popular appeal."

Only because the candidates don't appeal to *you*, CP.

[MajGenl.Meade]

Ross Perot, the wiry Texas gadfly who made a fortune in computer services, amazed the nation with audacious paramilitary missions to Vietnam and Iran, and ran for president in 1992 and 1996 with populist talk of restoring Norman Rockwell’s America, died on Tuesday at his home in Dallas. He was 89

.

Damn! There goes my 2020 vote.

[Crackpot]

I voted for Clinton is was obvious to me that she was the best qualified of any of the “front runners” but it was also abundantly clear that she had a huge likability issue and a believability rating that at the time was on par with Trump. I live in a deeply purple state that nationally at least has been thought of as blue and over the course of my voting career I have watched the Democrats take their vote for granted and in the last presidential election that neglect cost them the presidency.

People are sick and tired of the Democratic attitude of “we know what’s best for you shut the hell up”. It is the attitude that destroyed the union base in this state. People have been begging Democrats to listen to them and this is the attitude they give back. And they wonder why when running against the worst candidate in at least recent history people are unwilling to give them support

[ex-khobar Andy]

Promises made, promises kept.

Or not . . .

According to Salon.com, Job growth has slowed under President Trump compared to the final months of President Obama’s second term, despite Trump’s frequent boasts that the current economy is the “greatest” in the history of the country.

During the first 29 full months that Trump has been in office, from February 2017 through June 2019, the economy created 5.61 million jobs, or about 194,000 per month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

During Obama’s last 29 full months, from September 2014 to January 2017, the economy added 6.42 million new jobs, or about 221,000 per month.

[Guinevere]

I voted for Clinton is was obvious to me that she was the best qualified of any of the “front runners” but it was also abundantly clear that she had a huge likability issue and a believability rating that at the time was on par with Trump. I live in a deeply purple state that nationally at least has been thought of as blue and over the course of my voting career I have watched the Democrats take their vote for granted and in the last presidential election that neglect cost them the presidency.

People are sick and tired of the Democratic attitude of “we know what’s best for you shut the hell up”. It is the attitude that destroyed the union base in this state. People have been begging Democrats to listen to them and this is the attitude they give back. And they wonder why when running against the worst candidate in at least recent history people are unwilling to give them support

Total strawman -- no one here is saying that. I haven't heard it, and I spend a lot of time reading about and listening to candidates (albeit less so this year because life has gotten in the way a lot lately). Want to show me where and who?

I hear your frustration CP. I really do. But I'm not sure if you're speaking for a silent majority, a silent minority, or just yourself. In any event, instead of being against, who are you for? And if not any one candidate, then what amalgamation of issues.

[Crackpot]

Honestly at this point i’m anyone but trump. In reality I am for anyone who can capture the aspirations of the center. Obama did that unfortunately he inherited a trashed economy and an uncooperative opposition (as well as a few errors of his own making) made him unable to capitalize on much outside of the ACA. (I am not underplaying the recovery buy it took most of his time and As the economy goes economic perceptions lag the reality). At this point the only candidate that will really make me hold my nose, breath and get plastered before and after voting would be Bernie. I’m so-so on Warren. Booker Might be a good candidate if he stops believing his hype. The rest out side that one wack a doodle (who really may have a point just expressed horribly) I have no issue with.

[Sue U]

People are sick and tired of the Democratic attitude of “we know what’s best for you shut the hell up”. It is the attitude that destroyed the union base in this state. People have been begging Democrats to listen to them and this is the attitude they give back.

Please provide examples of this "attitude." Is it the way Democrats actually took an interest in Flint's water contamination crisis? Is it the way Democrats are struggling to protect a woman's right to reproductive choice in Michigan? Is it the way Democrats nationally are trying to protect and expand access to healthcare? Is it the way Democrats have been advocating for a living wage? Is it the way Democrats take climate change seriously as a threat to both national security and the viability of our species? Or what?

[BoSoxGal]

I highly recommend Andrea Pelosi's documentary Outside the Bubble - it gets inside the heads of some Obama/Trump voters and in so doing answers some of the questions about why the Democrats lost the rust belt states and thus the electoral college.

[Crackpot]

Sorry I lost the second message due to power running out on my phone i’l try and re-compose later.

[Crackpot]

It’s not so much a strawman as an amalgam with a healthy dose of hyperbole thrown in for good measure. I have run into quite more than a few people “on the political left” who regard blue collar workers and the issues facing them with distain (rubato for example, had a long history of this, tho he hasn’t veered into that territory lately) I have honestly lost count of how many times I have heard words to the effect of “if they wanted to keep their jobs they should have got an education”. That from people who claim to support labor unions. Of course no candidate would be so stupid to make such comments but they have long been silent on the concerns of BCWs. And that silence serves nothing but to embolden those who look down their noses at BCWs. Add to that those like yourself who do try to explain positions and eventually get burned out (because they lack a national voice) and end up saying things like “I’m not exposing that again” which is likely caused from general exhaustion but comes off just as easily as dismissiveness. This has been changing in the last few election cycles but Democrats are still missing cohesive and detailed national messaging).

As much as I dislike Bernie as a presidential candidate he has probably been the best at getting his message out to Blue Collar voters on that alone he could have probably won the last election. If the Democrats could find someone with Bernies messaging skill and not an ideologue they just might be able to achieve the supermajorities they think they should have. That brings me to one more point Democrats have to stop blaming the people that didn’t vote for them for the loss. Do I really need to go into that one?

To be continued

[Crackpot]

As to who I speak for is suppose I can only speak for myself but I base what I say from my experiences speaking with and listening to the people around me. Enough to know that not a lot of people pay a lot of attention to politics until it directly affects their lives. I am firmly convinced that there is still a sizable portion of the population who don’t know how much of a disaster Trump is and only like him due to the fact that all that filters through their bubble is that politicians don’t like him. ( though at this point the overlap of the Venn diagram of them and likely voters is relatively small.

In the end I can only offer my analysis from my little red blue-collar county in a blue region of a purple state.

[Guinevere]

Thanks CP, this is interesting and helpful. I appreciate the effort (and the lack of autocorrect )

[Crackpot]

I appreciate that anyone reads my long posts at all. I suck at punctuation ( It wasn’t until college that I got a teacher that explained it to me in a way that clicked and by that time it failed to hold on due to lack of further use) and proofreading as I tend to see what i’m thinking rather than the actual words.

By the time that I get enough distance that I can to a half decent proofread there have already been responses and i feel it would be cheating to correct at that point.