Trump in a landslide 2020

[Econoline]

Trump won all 6 of these states in 2016.

[Big RR]

Well, not exactly a "voucher." Once you're eligible for Medicare, you can choose to enroll in either "traditional" Medicare Parts A & B or Medicare Part C (now called "Medicare Advantage"). Medicare Advantage is a subsidized managed care system (capitated payments) that was meant to privatize "traditional" fee-for-service Medicare on the theory that "free enterprise" would yield competition, efficiency and cost savings. But of course healthcare and health insurance is not a market segment for which capitalism actually works. And insurers are finding that their government-subsidized Medicare Advantage plans yield double the gross margins (i.e., difference between premiums collected and medical expenses) per covered person.

You're right; it's a lot like Obamacare with a public option. Which, IMHO, should be the next step in the system.

[Econoline]

ETA (from Wonkette):

Polls this far out aren't predictable, but this is good news if moderates were genuinely concerned Warren or Sanders would lose big to Trump. Now, if what really worried them was the possibility that Warren or Sanders might actually win, then this is probably a bummer.

(I should also point out that there's considerable overlap between the Warren and Sanders voters, and at this point in the campaign she's being very careful not to alienate these natural allies, so that if when Bernie drops out she'll get all or most of those voters.

[Darren]

After the 2016 poll failures, do you still believe in them?

[Scooter]

What poll failures would those be? The immediate pre-election polls showed Clinton winning the popular vote, which she did, well within the margin of error of the polls.

[Econoline]

After the 2016 poll failures, do you still believe in them?

I'll just say that I believe the above poll just as much as I believe ↓↓this poll↓↓ or this guy.


Do you believe in the polls that show Trump beating Warren?

[Lord Jim]

After the 2016 poll failures, do you still believe in them?

After how accurate they were in 2018 you don't?

Plus the supposed "failure" of the polling in 2016 was a lot less than has become a part of popular mythology...

For starters, the national polls were completely accurate; as I pointed out in an earlier discussion:

First of all when it came to the national popular vote projections, the polls were NOT wrong...

The final RCP average of polls was well within the margin of error, versus the final result...

Hillary won the popular vote with 48.2% to 46.1% for Trump....

The final RCP average of polls had Hillary carrying the popular vote nationally by 46.8% to 43.6%...

(A difference of about 1%...on this score, the polls were spot on)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

In the battleground state final polls, a couple were well wide of the mark, but most were again within the margin of error...

They look worse than they were because the margin of error all broke Trump's way; the polls showed Hillary winning by 1-2 points, and instead Trump won the states by 1-2 points...

The reason the margin of error broke for Trump is pretty easy to explain...

1-2 percent likely reflects the percentage of Trump voters who had the clarity of mind to be too embarrassed and/or ashamed about their choice that they were unwilling to admit it, even to an anonymous person on the phone...

[Long Run]

even to an anonymous person on the phone...

Who answers their phone any more? https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/ ... is-1191637

It's getting so bad, they may have to go back to knocking on doors.

[Econoline]

Four years ago there were probably some...

In other news, here's another guaranteed 100% accurate poll:

[Econoline]

I'm seeing the same factors going into 2020 as I saw in 2016.

Since Trump took office Democrats have flipped the U.S. House of Representatives, plus governorships in Kansas, Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey, Illinois, Maine, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and Kentucky.

Just sayin'