The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

[Scooter]

[Darren]

Murder of the citizenry by executive order. How very Republican.

I'm sure you know the executive orders will have to come from state governors. Trump can't order the states back to work.

How will the politics work out? Will pinned up people turn against the party in power?

Since the huge majority of people will survive how will dictatorial orders by governors affect their political futures?

Governor Gretchen Whitmer is currently the target of a scattered recall effort. I doubt signing internet petitions is going anywhere for obvious reasons.

Governors Newsom and Northram likewise.

Have the Democrats set themselves up for defeat?

[Scooter]

Is that word salad supposed to mean something?

[ex-khobar Andy]

Headline from the Guardian's piece about BoJo:

UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson discharged from hospital but will not return to work

So that's two pieces of good news in one line. As always, the Graun being economical.

[Scooter]

Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring

When Chloe Fu, 24, went for a run on Monday evening, the streets of Stockholm were filled with people drinking on restaurant patios, enjoying the first warm day of sunshine after a long winter.

“When you walk around, there is a total and utter absence of panic,” Fu says, who moved to Sweden from the United States last year. “The streets are just as busy as they would have been last spring.”

As many public spaces throughout Europe empty out—with citizens only leaving home for essential groceries or medication—life in Sweden is carrying on, mostly as usual. Children walk to school while adults meet up for dinner at their local bar. Only the vulnerable have been advised to isolate and some are working from home. Yet in Sweden, where there are 9,141 confirmed cases and 793 people have died, experts worry weaker measures may be leading to a more severe outbreak in the country of just 10 million citizens.

Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame.

The Swedish government continues to advocate for relaxed measures. The Swedish Public Health Agency cautions citizens to cover their mouths when they cough or sneeze and wash hands regularly but does not call for lockdown measures. On March 11, the government cut down the size of permitted gatherings to 500, and only lowered that down to 50 on March 29. Other countries, like Germany and Australia, have prohibited gathering in groups larger than two. On Monday, Sweden declared that domestic flights would continue running, despite the risks domestic travel poses for spreading the disease.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist overseeing the government’s response to COVID-19 has said the government should allow the virus to spread slowly through the population, an approach initially employed by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands before both countries rapidly changed strategy amid mounting evidence that this approach would still overburden health care systems. Tegnell told Swedish TV on April 5 that COVID-19 could be stopped by “herd immunity or a combination of immunity and vaccination.” (A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely at least 14 months away.)

But many experts throughout Sweden say the current strategy is dangerous.

“Herd immunity doesn’t make sense because we don’t know whether or not you can become immune,” says Nele Brusselaers, an associate professor of clinical epidemiology. She added, “this is a virus that can kill anybody.”

At the end of March, 2,300 doctors, scientists and academics signed an open letter to the government calling for stricter measures.

“We think there is no scientific evidence for their strategy,” says Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, an expert in microbial pathogenesis who signed the letter. She says the government has been reluctant to share its data with scientists, leading her to believe that the government’s strategy is “not based on evidence.”

Carina King, an infectious diseases epidemiologist, agrees that the government’s lack of transparency makes it “really hard to give proper scientific thoughts on their approach because they haven’t released their science.” She added that the government has made no concrete efforts to test, contact trace and quarantine—as South Korea did—which is standard protocol to stop localized spread at the beginning of an outbreak.

Nevertheless, she says Sweden could be a rare case where a nationwide lockdown may not be necessary. “Sweden is unique,” she says. “It doesn’t have many intergenerational households. It is a country where you could have a mixed approach.”

Though interpersonal distance is valued in Swedish culture and 40% of Swedish households are single-person households without children, other experts say that COVID-19 can still spread rapidly and widely in these conditions. Sweden has the second lowest number of critical care beds in Europe after Portugal, with only 5 beds for every 100,000 inhabitants. The healthcare system would likely be unable to handle a severe COVID-19 outbreak.

Currently, experts say the Swedish government is not following the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines, which advise countries with COVID-19 outbreaks to contact trace where possible and to adopt strict self-isolation measures. “I’m surprised and frustrated that they still have not taken any action or listened to the advice of organizations like WHO,” says Brusselaers. “They disregard any prediction model that has been published by experts in the field and they don’t even give a defense.”

A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will “probably end in a historical massacre.” He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because “it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision” but said he felt a need to speak out from an “ethical and medical point of view.”

The Swedish legislature will meet this week to discuss whether tougher measures restricting business and travel should be implemented. Söderberg-Nauclér says it’s already too late to prevent chaos in Stockholm but that preventative lockdown measures could still be taken throughout other parts of the country.

“If they are right and we are wrong, I will open a bottle of champagne,” Söderberg-Nauclér says. She notes that, based on the modeling she’s seen, the healthcare system in Sweden will collapse if stricter measures are not adopted immediately. “But I will not give up the fight until the government shows us evidence for their strategy.”

While experts may be taking issue with the government’s approach, many Swedes seem to be in favor of it. Opinion polls show that citizens trust the Public Health Authority, with 48% saying they have very high or high confidence in the institution. “It’s rare for Swedish society to loudly disapprove of the government,” says Fu. “Even though people are concerned about losing loved ones, they also trust that the government is doing the right thing.”

And Swedes have above-average confidence in their politicians, who in turn, trust citizens to follow their advice. “In Sweden, the approach has always been to make suggestions and let the public decide,” says Johan Erik Lallerstedt, a 23-year-old filmmaker living in Stockholm. “Whatever guidelines the government may give are just that: suggestions. Nothing is enforced.”

But Söderberg-Nauclér believes this outbreak could bring an end to a long history of public trust in government. “If you put people’s lives at risk in democratic society and then you do not help them, how will society trust politicians?” she says. “I don’t want to live in a society that treats people like this.”

[Lord Jim]

How will the politics work out? Will pinned up people turn against the party in power?

Since the huge majority of people will survive how will dictatorial orders by governors affect their political futures?

Yeah, about that...

April 8, 2020 - Fauci, Governors Get Highest Marks For Response To Coronavirus, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Majority Say Trump's Response Not Aggressive Enough

As the number of coronavirus cases spreads throughout the country, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, earns the highest approval rating for his handling of the response to the coronavirus, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. He is closely followed by state governors, but President Trump and Congress don't fare quite as well on their handling of the response to the coronavirus:

Dr. Anthony Fauci: 78 percent approve, 7 percent disapprove;
"Your state's governor": 74 percent approve, 24 percent disapprove;
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: 59 percent approve, 17 percent disapprove;
President Trump: 46 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove;
Congress: 44 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

When it comes to President Trump's response to the coronavirus, 55 percent of registered voters say that he has not acted aggressively enough, while 41 percent say his response has been about right and 2 percent say he's been too aggressive.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-de ... aseID=3658

Trump keeps wanting to reopen the economy. Voters disagree.

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Updated 3:30 PM ET, Sat April 11, 2020

(CNN)Public health officials almost universally agree that the best way to keep coronavirus deaths to a minimum is for Americans to stay at home as much as possible. Yet President Donald Trump keeps wanting to reopen the economy as he tries to weigh economic health and public health.

A look at the polling data reveals, however, why he may want to err on the side of keeping folks at home.

Normally, presidential elections depend a lot on the state of the economy. Trump has to be seeing the economy shedding jobs and has to know the economy has historically been linked to a president's re-election hopes. I, myself, made the connection just last week.

And indeed, the percentage of voters who think the economy is getting worse skyrocketed to 60% in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. That's up from 28% at the beginning of March. When this many voters think the economy is getting worse historically, incumbents almost always lose.

The same poll, however, found that Trump's approval rating on the economy is 51%. This is no different than the average of Quinnipiac polls taken since May 2019. Voters, it seems, are not for the moment blaming Trump for any economic downturn.

Meanwhile, everything we see in the polling data suggests that almost no one thinks that we need to reopen the economy right now. In a Fox News poll this week, 80% of voters nationwide say they would favor the federal government announcing a stay at home order for everybody but essential workers. You usually can't get 80% of voters to agree upon anything, and the 80% is certainly higher than the approval Trump is getting for his handling of the coronavirus.

Voters aren't concerned Trump is being too proactive. If anything, they think he is being too cautious. The same Fox News poll showed that a mere 4% of voters thought Trump was overreacting to the virus. That compares with 47% who think he isn't taking the virus seriously enough.

Americans expect to have disruption to their lives for a good while longer. Most voters, 75%, in the Fox News poll believe the worst of the epidemic is yet to come. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that the vast majority of Americans (91%) have had their daily routines interrupted by the virus, and a majority of those (56%) don't expect their routines to get back to normal until at least July.

The point is that there's a lot in the data to indicate that Americans want the President to focus most on the public health issue at hand more so than they are worried about him fixing the economy right now. If people are allowed to go about their normal routine too soon and the number of coronavirus cases rise afterward, there's a good case to be made that's far more dangerous to Trump's reelection chances than a bad economy.

So thus far, all the statistically valid data (as opposed to the "somebody somewhere is saying/doing something" unsourced ass-gas speculation that you have on offer) the American people in general are exhibiting far more common sense and prudent patience about this than you want to give them credit for...

But if the country is reopened recklessly and percipiently (the course you advocate, and that Trump longs to follow ) bringing on the inevitable second wave of deaths and even more economic disruption and hardship, you can betcherboots somebody will pay a steep political price...

And it ain't gonna be those responsible governors, (in both parties) who fought to prevent it from happening...

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

Here's another excellent link for real, factual, reputable data about how state residents view their governor's handling of the crisis versus how they view Trump:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... -outbreak/

I certainly don't expect DTD to check it out because nothing is of less interest to him about this than actual facts (they're just a damn annoyance as far as he's concerned) but others who actually care about facts might find it informative...

[Darren]

More restart news:

"WASHINGTON (AP) – The United States’ top infectious disease expert says the economy in parts of the country could be allowed to reopen as early as next month.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says there’s no light switch that will be clicked to turn everything back on. He says a “rolling re-entry” will be required based on the status of the new coronavirus pandemic in various parts of the country."



https://krcrtv.com/news/coronavirus/ant ... next-month

[Scooter]

Someone got a clip of Darren visiting his local market.

[Darren]

Icelandic testing shows unexpected herd immunity. That matches the testing in Chicago.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/icela ... TdVlROwYSA

[ex-khobar Andy]

So half of Iceland's COV-positive people are asymptomatic.

That has absolutely zero to do with the concept of herd immunity.

[BoSoxGal]

I guess the immunologist girlfriend hasn’t taught him the definition of immunity.

[Darren]

So half of Iceland's COV-positive people are asymptomatic.

That has absolutely zero to do with the concept of herd immunity.

Thank you for pointing out my mistake. As you indicated people that are asymptomatic are not evidence of herd immunity. Iceland has not started testing for antibodies.

In Chicago antibody testing started on April 3rd at the Roseland Community Hospital. Those results do indicate a level of herd immunity already. The article is good news for a nation about to go back to work.

"A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus."

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530 ... 04sTvVV2CM

[Darren]

More news about reopening:

"“We’re controlling the spread,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. “The worst can be over, and is over, unless we do something reckless.”

“You can turn those numbers on two or three days of reckless behaviors,” he said.

Cuomo said he will make an announcement later Monday about plans for reopening the state in conjunction with some other governors.

He said he and governors from Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Rhode Island have been talking “for the past couple of days, about coming up with, how do we come up with a reopening plan? And can we work together on a reopening plan?”"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronav ... -says.html

[Econoline]

[BoSoxGal]

[ex-khobar Andy]

I enjoyed that too. Fox News is improving.

[Darren]

The basis for the restart:

Watch the states and the antibody testing. Based on the testing in Chicago many more people already have antibodies than known.

That means herd immunity already exists to varying degrees across the country. Governors have a factual basis for reopening while not overloading the medical system.

[Darren]

Very good news! More data to support restart!

"In less than a month, Abbott Laboratories has shipped 566,000 of its highly touted “rapid” molecular tests for the Coronavirus strain COVID-19 to all 50 U.S. states.

The effort to get the ID NOW COVID-19 test to doctor’s offices, urgent care centers and temporary testing sites like drive-thru parking lot locations is a snapshot into the massive diagnostic effort under way in the U.S. Abbott’s ID NOW COVID-19 test can deliver “positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes.”"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapse ... ba4b2c3205