The Anti-Science Party marches on ...

[dgs49]

Just a clarification for anyone who is still reading this thread, my comments on page 1 about AIDS research and funding were in reference to the AIDS situation in the U.S., only. I couldn't care less what is going on in third-world countries.

[Scooter]

And as I said:

Obviously he was talking about the state of the epidemic in the U.S., however warped his interpretations may have been. I brought up the global picture because decisions to fund disease research have always taken the global situation into account. There has always been research funding allocated for diseases that pose little or no risk in the U.S. but that are of significance in other parts of the world. To justify the lack of attention by the administration at the time by what he perceives to have been the low numbers in the U.S. therefore falls flat.

The fact that you chose to fixate on the U.S. epidemic did not negate the need to bring up the broader picture.

[dgs49]

The point had been made that President Reagan did not jump on the AIDS bandwagon because of scientific ignorance or a personal disdain for scientific facts. My point was that his funding recommendations were based on the relatively low level of the AIDS threat in the U.S., when compared with heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc.

There is not now, nor has there ever been an "AIDS epidemic" in the U.S., outside a couple of small but conspicuous sub-communities.

You chose to bring up the global picture, which is fine, but distorts the picture, e.g., gives the impression that the spread of "heterosexual" AIDS is a serious problem. Outside the third world, it is insignificant and only occurs on the margins - more of a personal tragedy than a social problem.

[Scooter]

AIDS is the second largest killer of all women aged 25-44 in the U.S., and the largest among African-American women. That is no longer a disease "on the margins", if indeed it ever was.

[quaddriver]

Is what scooter says true?

•Number of deaths: 2,423,712
•Death rate: 803.6 deaths per 100,000 population
•Life expectancy: 77.9 years
•Infant Mortality rate: 6.75 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
•Heart disease: 616,067
•Cancer: 562,875
•Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 135,952
•Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 127,924
•Accidents (unintentional injuries): 123,706
•Alzheimer's disease: 74,632
•Diabetes: 71,382
•Influenza and Pneumonia: 52,717
•Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 46,448
•Septicemia: 34,828

granted, the CDC lists ALL causes of death, for ALL citizens, its a red flag.

It has been covered elsewhere on this BBS, that old people die more frequently than young people.
the leading cause of death for males in that age group is accidents, lifestyle induced accidents (car wrecks, skydiving, atvs, whatever)

furthermore, if you look at the death rate/100K by age group in the US, if you survive the first 4 years (truly a dangerous time until ones immune system is fully functional, the death rate is essentially negligible until you hit 40. The the top 10 diseases aforementioned kick in.

We also know, that as of 2009, females enjoy about 3 years longer expectency on average over males.

right off the bat the collection of red flags tell us, that whatever this 'leading cause of death is', it aint very aggressive.

In fact, the CDC is loathe to even mention Aids in the US. for the targeted age group, the most is 'all other causes' at 33% while accidents, cancer and heart disease command 25, 14 and 12% respectively.

so if we press the CDC to speak about aids in the US, what WILL they say?

At some point in her lifetime, 1 in 139 women will be diagnosed with HIV infection. Black and Hispanic/Latina women are at increased risk of being diagnosed with HIV infection (1 in 32 black women and 1 in 106 Hispanic/Latina women will be diagnosed with HIV, compared with 1 in 182 Native Hawaiian/other Pacific Islander women; 1 in 217 American Indian/Alaska Native women; and 1 in 526 for both white and Asian women).
From 2006 through 2009, estimated diagnoses of HIV infection among women decreased from 10,851 to 9,973. It is unknown whether this decrease is due to an actual decrease in new HIV infections (incidence) or whether the decrease reflects HIV testing trends.
Women accounted for more than 25% of the estimated 34,247 AIDS diagnoses in 2009 and represent nearly 20% of cumulative AIDS diagnoses (including children) in the United States to date. There were 8,647 AIDS diagnoses among women in 2009 compared with 9,639 AIDS diagnoses among women in 2006.
For women living with a diagnosis of HIV infection, the most common methods of transmission were high-risk heterosexual contact6 and injection drug use.
In 2008, 4,796 (28%) of the estimated 17,374 persons with a diagnosis of HIV infection who died in the 40 states and 5 US dependent areas were women. Deaths attributed to HIV among women of color are disproportionately high: from 2000–2007, HIV infection was among the top 10 leading causes of death for black females aged 10–54 and Hispanic/Latina females aged 15–54.

So the reality is, scooter bent the facts. The reality is, if you are a black or hispanic woman of the target age group, aids deaths will be among the top 10, but as we have seen in the chart above, there is great great disparity between an item at #1, and #10, order of magnitude or more. Factor in that black women contract aids 10x more than white women, we also find an important missing piece of the data: race

so, was there any sort of underhandedness when any administration did not fund aids research (for lets face it, an illness that has to be willfully contracted vs a naturally occuring one), we can only conclude no.

DGS mentioned that other diseases were larger. Scooter countered with the semi factoid that provoked this post of data. The reality (that word again) is that more women died from heart disease in any 5 days of last week, than will all year round from aids (assuming my off the cuff math is close)

Where is the expediency needed?

[loCAtek]

ThX dgs49, Quad for making this a thread again, and not a pissing match.

[dgs49]

Scooter, would you care to explain your previous post? It was so totally and obviously made-up nonsense that it had me scratching my head. What was it that you really intended to say?

[Scooter]

What is there to understand?

In 2004 (the most recent year for which data are available), HIV infection was the leading cause of death for black women (including African American women) aged 25–34 years

The only diseases causing more deaths of women were cancer and heart disease

A disease that is THE leading cause of death among young African-American women and which kills more women OVERALL than any disease except heart disease and cancer is not a disease that is "on the margins" of society.

[Lord Jim]

AIDS is the second largest killer of all women aged 25-44 in the U.S.,

I'm a little puzzled as to where you're getting that from, Scooter...

According to this CDC chart, (http://www.cdc.gov/women/lcod/06_all_females.pdf ) showing the breakdown of the leading causes of death for all females in the US broken down by age group, ( at least as of 2006... also, if you want to see the causes broken down further by ethnic group you can see that at this url: http://www.cdc.gov/women/lcod/ ) HIV ranks 6th with 3.5% of deaths among all women aged 25-34, ("Unintentional injuries" is first with 27.3%, and cancer second with 14.8%.)

Among women aged 35-44, HIV ranks 5th, at 3.8% ("Unintentional deaths" and cancer flip positions, with cancer number one at 25.7% and unintentional deaths number 2 at 16.5%)

For both groups, HIV ranks below both heart disease and suicide as a cause of death, (and amongst the younger group, it ranks below homicide as well)

I'm not pointing this out to minimize the tragedy of young women dying from HIV...

I'm just curious as to how you came to the "second leading cause of death" number...

Is your source defining deaths due to AIDS differently than the CDC defines deaths due to HIV?

[Scooter]

Actually, that number may be out of date, in the advent of higher uptake of antiretroviral treatments, which of course have brought down death rates substantially.

But the numbers I just posted, such as third largest cause of death by disease among all women, are based on more up-to-date CDC figures.

The point being, that any disease that kills more African-American young women than any other, and is the third highest cause of death by disease of all women, is not a disease that is "at the margins" of society.

[quaddriver]

Actually, that number may be out of date, in the advent of higher uptake of antiretroviral treatments, which of course have brought down death rates substantially.

But the numbers I just posted, such as third largest cause of death by disease among all women, are based on more up-to-date CDC figures.

The point being, that any disease that kills more African-American young women than any other, and is the third highest cause of death by disease of all women, is not a disease that is "at the margins" of society.

Again some fast and looseness with the data, as I have shown, courtesy of the CDC, among ALL women, AIds aint even in the top 10.

First scooter posted 'something to age 44', then changed it to 'something to 34' but the data I posted from the CDC listed accidents, cancer and heart stuff as 1-2-3.

I noticed at some point that scooter has amended it to read 'black women' in some posts, rather than ALL women. In black women, he is closer to the truth as the rates of infection among black women are about 10x that of white women. But still off.

As I pointed out (and LJ backed up by posting the same data) any 5 (I might say 7 after mulling the numbers) days this year (or last) had more women dying from heart issues than the ENTIRE year from aids.

the american heart association rightfully complains that the money is skewed disproportionately towards HIV.

And one piece of data that was left off, on purpose I suppose, is that the CDC blames the aids rate among the target age group on two things: risky unprotected sex and shared drug stuff. Thats not a disease, thats a behaviour. Its hard to dump research money into behaviours.

But what the heck, those are just facts. Unwelcome little pestilence

[Gob]

AIDS is now the leading cause of death for African-American women ages 25–34. And African-American women are more than 21 times as likely to die from HIV/AIDS as non-Hispanic white women. Some reasons why African-American women are affected by HIV/AIDS more than women of other races include

http://www.womenshealth.gov/minority-he ... v-aids.cfm

By race/ethnicity, African Americans face the most severe burden of HIV in the United States (US). At the end of 2007, blacks accounted for almost half (46%) of people living with a diagnosis of HIV infection in the 37 states and 5 US dependent areas with long-term, confidential, name-based HIV reporting. In 2006, blacks accounted for nearly half (45%) of new infections in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Even though new HIV infections among blacks overall have been roughly stable since the early 1990s, compared with members of other races and ethnicities they continue to account for a higher proportion of cases at all stages of HIV—from new infections to deaths.

HIV and AIDS Diagnoses and Deaths

Although new HIV infections have remained fairly stable among blacks, from 2005–2008 estimated HIV diagnoses increased approximately 12%. This may be due to increased testing or diagnosis earlier in the course of HIV infection; it may also be due to uncertainty in statistical models.
At some point in their lifetimes, 1 in 16 black men will be diagnosed with HIV infection, as will 1 in 32 black women.
From 2005–2008, the rate of HIV diagnoses among blacks increased from 68/100,000 persons to 74/100,000. This increase reflects the largest increase in rates of HIV diagnoses by race or ethnicity.
In 2008, an estimated 18,328 blacks received an AIDS diagnosis, a number that has remained relatively stable since 2005.
By the end of 2007, an estimated 233,624 blacks with a diagnosis of AIDS had died in the US and 5 dependent areas. In 2006, HIV was the ninth leading cause of death for all blacks and the third leading cause of death for both black men and black women aged 35–44

Still as long as it's only a big problem for the niggers Dave and Quaddy can consider it a disease that is "at the margins" of society.

[Rick]

I don't see them marginalizing anything of the sort.

I can see them questioning Scooter on the leading cause of death thing...

[quaddriver]

I don't see them marginalizing anything of the sort.

I can see them questioning Scooter on the leading cause of death thing...

shhh!

get branded yanno?

But I notice the absolute numbers thing STILL gets ignored. I think I mentioend it twice, and it was unrefuted.

The whole lot of EVERYONE who dies each year in the US from aids is but a fraction of heart disease. A small fraction.

That was Daves pont re: "there is/was no epidemic"

Some may argue (but not here, why use rational discourse when ad hominem will do) "what if it was your wife/girl dying of aids"

But the reality (that word) is, there are a finite sum of dollars and rationally (a new word!) they should be spent where the most good can be done.

I didnt read the other part of the pissing match thread, but I saw Reagans name and I remembered a little trashoid 'The band played on". As much as it sounds cool as a sound bite, Reagan did not "give" them aids.

[quaddriver]

Oh and Gob, when you want to link something in to 'prove me wrong' (like that is possible READ it first to make sure it does not parrot what I have already posted.

And LJ quoted my sources, about 4 hours after I did, make sure you include him in your diatribe as well k?

[Scooter]

Another disturbing trend - HIV has reached the level of a generalized epidemic among U.S. urban poor. Among heterosexual non-injection drug users living in areas where income level is below the poverty line, HIV prevalence is 2.1% That is on par with countries like Burundi, Ethiopia, Angola and Haiti. Since this is is a group unlikely to be able to access antiretroviral drugs that could dampen their infectivity, this is a pool of infection that will continue to grow. There is no telling what infection rates will look like in inner cities a decade from now, unless more is done to get people on meds (and yes, that means money).

[quaddriver]

Another disturbing trend - HIV has reached the level of a generalized epidemic among U.S. urban poor. Among heterosexual non-injection drug users living in areas where income level is below the poverty line, HIV prevalence is 2.1% That is on par with countries like Burundi, Ethiopia, Angola and Haiti. Since this is is a group unlikely to be able to access antiretroviral drugs that could dampen their infectivity, this is a pool of infection that will continue to grow. There is no telling what infection rates will look like in inner cities a decade from now, unless more is done to get people on meds (and yes, that means money).

cept the data Gob posted (which itself was semi-compiled from the CDC data) states:

Some reasons why African-American women are affected by HIV/AIDS more than women of other races include:

•Poverty — One in 4 African-American women lives in poverty, which is strongly linked to HIV risk. People living in poverty also get lower-quality health care in general, which can mean advancing from HIV infection to AIDS more quickly.
•Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) — HIV is most commonly spread to women through sexual contact. Untreated STIs that break the skin, such as genital herpes, give HIV easy access into the bloodstream. African-American women have high rates of many STIs.
•Incarceration of African-American men — Based on current rates of incarceration, nearly one-third of all African-American men will enter prison during their lifetimes. Cycling in and out of the prison system leads to fewer available African-American men in the community to have long-term, faithful relationships and a greater chance of having multiple partners over time. Living in prison also exposes many men to risk factors for HIV. This raises a man's risk of getting HIV in prison and passing HIV to his female partner at home.
•African-American men "on the down low" may also be a factor in the burden of HIV on African-American women. This describes men who have sex with men and women, but who do not identify themselves as gay or bisexual. African-American women may not be aware of their partners' HIV risk factors

This looks more like a missed management opportunity than an epidemic.

[Gob]

I don't see them marginalizing anything of the sort.

I can see them questioning Scooter on the leading cause of death thing...

It was DGS who raised the "margins" point;

You chose to bring up the global picture, which is fine, but distorts the picture, e.g., gives the impression that the spread of "heterosexual" AIDS is a serious problem. Outside the third world, it is insignificant and only occurs on the margins - more of a personal tragedy than a social problem.

Only someone as brain damaged as Quaddy would support that.

[quaddriver]

I don't see them marginalizing anything of the sort.

I can see them questioning Scooter on the leading cause of death thing...

It was DGS who raised the "margins" point;

You chose to bring up the global picture, which is fine, but distorts the picture, e.g., gives the impression that the spread of "heterosexual" AIDS is a serious problem. Outside the third world, it is insignificant and only occurs on the margins - more of a personal tragedy than a social problem.

Only someone as brain damaged as Quaddy would support that.

um no, actually the CDC did (hint: its something in the US) they posted the death rates, I just quoted them.

but your response clearly indicates 'thread over, pissing match back on'

fair nuff.

[Gob]

So, my point was, dgs claimed that AIDS "outside the third world, it is insignificant and only occurs on the margins", do you believe that to be true? Do you have any evidence to the contrary?