Romney Vs. Santorum Vs. Obama

[Lord Jim]

[Sue U]

, too.

[Gob]

What do the primaries reveal about the state of the Republican Party in the US? Is the party really split?

As Super Tuesday approaches, former BBC North America editor Justin Webb asks what Republican voters really want.

The former British Prime Minister John Major tells a story about soundbites. He was visiting Boris Yeltsin in Moscow when Yeltsin was president of a fast-collapsing Russia.

It was the early 1990's and things were bad. To make conversation Mr Major asks Mr Yeltsin a question.

"In a word, Boris, what is the state of your nation?"

"In a word: good!"

The Prime Minister felt a fool. He had been fobbed off in front of his civil servants with an answer that was patently wrong. So he tried again:

"What is the longer version of that, Boris?"

"Not good!"

Mr Major's story came back to me as I began this investigation of the modern day Republicans. The short soundbite version of their state at the moment is that they are, in a word, fractured.

The primaries have been bitterly fought. The main candidates seem to have little respect for each other, to put it mildly. The primary voters have failed to find a front-runner and rally round him - which in the past was the Republican way.

It is all - as US journalist Joe Klein recently put it - "a victorless crime". And what is the longer version of that, Boris?

Well it is the opposite: un-fractured. United. In fact, united as never before according to virtually all the contributors I spoke to for Radio 4's Analysis.


Henry Olsen of the conservative think-tank the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) puts it like this: "The party is more unified on general principles - first order policies - than it has been in my lifetime."

Whether this unity is good for the Republicans is another matter of course.

Political writer Michael Lind left the party because he sees its modern unity as toxic. Too much based on the values of the deep south of the USA - and in particular a visceral and unquenchable dislike of any government by anyone, of anyone.

"The thing that holds together the modern Republican party is opposition to the government," says Mr Lind.

"What's happened in the last generation is that the conversion of conservative southern Democrats to the Republican party is almost complete.

"And in converting, they have not simply added a constituency to the party, but they've pretty much taken it over and they dominate the base and also the congressional delegation."

The Lind thesis has been rather supported by events in recent days.

The moderate Republican Senator Olympia Snowe has decided not to run again in her northeastern base of Maine.

Her Senate seat will almost certainly be taken by a Democrat in the November election, so the geographical and intellectual separation of the Republican party from the northeast takes another step.

So what does the modern, southern-dominated Republican party actually want to do? What would it demand of a Republican president and congress were the party to take power after November?
Working-class Republicans

The central issue for Republicans is the size of America's national debt, which they see as unsustainable and capable of being reduced only by cuts in services.

I talked to Matt Kibbe, of the pressure group Freedom Works, who is a prominent supporter of the Tea Party movement.

Mr Kibbe is a thoughtful, mild-mannered man contemplating, well, big changes, if not a new revolution:

"You're going to have to look at things like closing down full departments like the Department of Energy that has failed in its mission of energy independence.

"The Department of Education which has actually resided over massive cost inflation and declining quality in education in America.

"We have to take a look at defence. We are spending astronomical amounts of money on defence and just from a budgetary point of view it's unsustainable."

Mr Kibbe also mentions government programmes like Medicare - which pays medical bills for the elderly - and the Social Security pension system.

Both must be replaced with personal plans into which individuals pay during their lives, he says.

Here is the problem. Mr Kibbe's programme for government - as he very candidly acknowledges - is not an easy plan to sell.

In particular the party has a problem with a group of voters vital to its electoral success: white people with no college education.

Mr Olson of the AEI puts it like this:

"The party base thinks the deficit is the most important problem. These people [the white working class] think the economy is the most important problem."

Somehow over the next decade the Republican party - which cannot win elections without support from the white working-class - has got to makes its peace with them and convince them that the ideas it espouses make sense.

The alternative, frankly, is electoral irrelevance.

So what will the Republicans do? How will they cope with this problem?

Will they - as Michael Kibbe hinted and the maverick presidential candidate Ron Paul suggests - campaign to cut defence spending as much as domestic programmes? How will that change America's place in the world?

The Republican Party has often been on the right side of history.

From Lincoln to Reagan they have been able persuaders - admired and respected. This primary season has not been their finest hour. Their re-emergence, when it comes, will be fascinating to watch.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17210652

[Lord Jim]

Romney is certain to win Massachusetts...there hasn't been a poll done there since mid February, but he was up by between 45-50 points, no way to blow that....

Romney is also certain to win Virginia, (only he and Paul made the ballot, and the latest poll there, taken between 2/29 and 3/2, has him up 69-26....

Vermont is also probably a sure thing for Romney...there's been very little polling done there, and the last one done in mid Feb. has Santorum just seven points behind, but that poll had a very small sample, (231 respondents) and a lot has happened since then, none of it good for Santorum...

Santorum has a shot, (on paper anyway) in Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma...

Oklahoma looks best for him, the most recent poll has him up by 21, but that was taken several lifetimes ago, (Feb. 21st)

Ohio and Tennessee both have recent polling and they show that just as he did in Michigan, (and no doubt largely because of his performance leading up to Michigan) Santorum has blown big leads that he had in mid February, and they are now toss ups...

My guess would be that like in Michigan, the combination of Santorum's poor performance and Romney's financial advantage will be enough to pull Ohio out for Romney, (the most important race of the evening) and possibly in Tennessee as well...(I'm sure the whole Limbaugh thing hasn't helped Rick either)

In Georgia, Gingrich looks like the sure winner, 3 out of 4 recent polls have him up by around 20 points, (a fourth taken during the same time frame has him up by 10)

I would guess that the Romney campaign didn't put on much of a push in Georgia...they probably wanted Gingrich to win there so he stay in, just in case Santorum did well...

Santorum had an excellent opportunity, and he completely blew it. In the three weeks after his 3 state win leading up to Michigan, he should have done 90% of his campaign appearances in front of closed factories, closed warehouses, shuttered stores and abandoned homes, (it's not like they're in short supply in Michigan) and hammered away relentlessly at his jobs theme.

If he had done so, he'd have won Michigan comfortably, and be poised for for a big night tomorrow.

Instead he decided to talk about contraception...


Personally, as a Republican, I now think the best thing that could happen, (since I really don't see a brokered convention with a stronger candidate as a realistic possibility) would be for Romney to wrap this thing up as soon as possible.

Mr. Romney is far far from perfect, but he's the best situated to be able to use the time available to undo some of the damage that has been caused and re-establish an appeal to independents. The longer this battle drags on, the tougher that becomes. Since he's almost certain to be the nominee anyway, sooner is certainly preferable to later.

ETA:

All poll numbers referenced come, as usual, from my favorite website:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[dgs49]

Jimmy, do you really think Santorum has chosen the topic for this week's discussion? Or has he been dragged into it?

The interviews I've seen have been nothing but challenges and accusations.

[Lord Jim]

Jimmy, do you really think Santorum has chosen the topic for this week's discussion? Or has he been dragged into it?

Davey, it ain't just this week...

For about the first week and a half after his three state win, he ran the kind of on-message campaign he needed to, and he showed the discipline to avoid being drawn into these 'social issues" diversions, despite the news pundits repeated efforts to draw him in. (I pointed this out at the time, and complimented him for it)

In the following week and a half, he lost that discipline and fell into the same trap he fell into after Iowa; he allowed hostile set-up questions at town meetings to drive his message, and when he did that he played right into the hands of a media more than happy exploit it. (And who the hell told him it would be a good idea to start equating college with snobbery?)

As i said, there's no use whining and moaning about the media role in this. It's not like he didn't know that they wanted to hang this around his neck; he showed he had the ability and skill to avoid the trap; then he showed he lacked the discipline to avoid it for more than a week and a half...

He has no one to blame for this other than himself. He had the potential to be a stronger general election candidate than Romney; but he showed himself to lack the discipline to avoid running off at the mouth on diversionary side issues if provoked often enough....He was simply not ready for prime time.

ETA:

To give one example:

A guy who's wife has both a nursing and a law degree, and who's mother worked the whole time he was growing up and who earned a higher salary than his father, allowed himself to be maneuvered into looking like the "keep 'em barefoot dumb and pregnant" candidate....

How incompetent is that?

[Crackpot]

Ok I'm Game what hostile set up question led to "snob" debacle?

[Lord Jim]

Ok I'm Game what hostile set up question led to "snob" debacle?

There wasn't any. He pulled that one out all on his own completely out of the blue, which is why I referenced it separately.

[Crackpot]

I must have missed that

[Lord Jim]

In the following week and a half, he lost that discipline and fell into the same trap he fell into after Iowa; he allowed hostile set-up questions at town meetings to drive his message, and when he did that he played right into the hands of a media more than happy exploit it. (And who the hell told him it would be a good idea to start equating college with snobbery?)

[Crackpot]

I didn't say it wasn't there give me a break it's early and I havn't woke up yet. BTW don't you ever sleep?

[Lord Jim]

CP, I find early in the morning is the best time around here to get stuff done....

I've gotten used to getting up early...

[Sue U]

Personally, as a Republican, I now think the best thing that could happen, (since I really don't see a brokered convention with a stronger candidate as a realistic possibility) would be for Romney to wrap this thing up as soon as possible.

Mr. Romney is far far from perfect, but he's the best situated to be able to use the time available to undo some of the damage that has been caused and re-establish an appeal to independents. The longer this battle drags on, the tougher that becomes. Since he's almost certain to be the nominee anyway, sooner is certainly preferable to later.

I disagree. All of the candidates represent competing visions of the Republican party. To get a fair sense of what the party stands for these days, I think they should all stay in through the rest of the primary season, the GOP convention and into the general election.

(Do I need some sort of smilie here?)

[dgs49]

The "Barry is a snob" episode started with Santorum stating correctly that Barry has often spoken as though he thinks everyone ought to go to college. This is essentially true, although Barry is too slick to have used that exact formulation of words.

Rick then pointed out that to make such an implication is snobbery. Which it is. Then he went on to observe that Democrats like as many people to go to college as possible, because they will in most cases undergo a rather constant barrage of socialist, America-hating propaganda, which will in turn make them into nice, compliant Democrat voters.

Nothing controversial or unusual - stating what most Republicans, including myself, believe about the devil's bargain between Democrats and Academe.

It is absurd to even imply that someone with Rick's background (BA, MBA, JD, voted often for college loans and other funding while in Congress) is anti-college education, yet that's exactly what the Media is trying to do.

Note that the audience in the Town Hall meeting cheered what he was saying, as they agreed with it wholeheartedly. You don't need a college education to be successful, and college is exactly the WRONG place for a lot of American Yoot.

The NFM, however, grabbed the issue, pointed out that the President never actually said, "Everyone ought to go to college," and ran with it.

This has been just as much a media-manipulation as the other stories claiming that Rick Santorum wants to outlaw birth control, that he equates homosexuality with bestiality, that he lied about having a Pennsylvania residence, that he's out to destroy Social Security, and so forth.

They hate him, and will continue doing everying possible to make him look like a crazy extremist. That's the bottom line.

Jimmie, set the pink shades aside and look at what's actually happening. Santorum ain't exactly my dream candidate - I'll probably vote for Romney in the PA primary - but what they are doing to Rick is textbook Liberal smear.

[Scooter]

The "Barry is a snob" episode started with Santorum stating correctly that Barry has often spoken as though he thinks everyone ought to go to college. This is essentially true, although Barry is too slick to have used that exact formulation of words.

IOW., Obama never actually said what Santorum claimed he did. Thanks for admitting he lied. Just liked he lied about that Kennedy speech where he claimed that Kennedy said that people of faith are not welcome to participate in government.

[Grim Reaper]

It is absurd to even imply that someone with Rick's background (BA, MBA, JD, voted often for college loans and other funding while in Congress) is anti-college education, yet that's exactly what the Media is trying to do.

By attacking the President over something he never actually said, Mr. Santorum has proven himself very thoroughly to be anti-education.

[Lord Jim]

Well tonight's results should certainly make Sue a happy camper...

The vote appears to be breaking in the way designed to most prolong the race....

Gingrich wins Georgia, so he stays in...

Santorum appears to be close to running the table in all those states where he's competitive...

He's already won Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota and in Ohio he's led all night but it's going to go down to the wire...Romney has been catching up (right now only about 8,000 votes separate them) but with more than 80% of the vote counted, he's running out of room to close even that gap....

Romney has wanted to win the GOP nomination in the worst way, and that seems to be what he is bound and determined to do...

To win it in the worst way....

[Lord Jim]

Given where the remaining votes to be counted are, Landslide Mitt may pull it out in Ohio...

It's also possible it could wind up so close that it has to be recounted....

[Gob]

Don't worry Jim, an unknown candidate from Buttfuck Creek Idaho could yet pop up and be voted in, thus making all these party infights a waste of time, money and heartache.


Great system there, btw

[Lord Jim]

Don't worry Jim, an unknown candidate from Buttfuck Creek Idaho could yet pop up and be voted in

One can only hope...