"The thermometer is lying"

[rubato]

It is no surprise that the party whose response to global warming evidence is to claim that "The thermometer is lying" is claiming that the BLS are lying about employment data. But it is shocking that otherwise reasonable people like Jack Welch are saying it. :




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http://economistsview.typepad.com/econo ... n-bls.html

'The Outrageous Attack on BLS'

According to the BLS, the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%. The response from some Republicans was that thenumber must have been manipulated to help Obama. Larry Mishel responds:

The outrageous attack on BLS: Apparently, Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric, is accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating the jobs report to help President Obama. Others seem to be adding their voices to this slanderous lie. It is simply outrageous to make such a claim and echoes the worrying general distrust of facts that seems to have swept segments of our nation. The BLS employment report draws on two surveys, one (the establishment survey) of 141,000 businesses and government agencies and the other (the household survey) of 60,000 households. The household survey is done by the Census Bureau on behalf of BLS. It’s important to note that large single-month divergences between the employment numbers in these two surveys (like the divergence in September) are just not that rare. EPI’s Elise Gould has a great paper on the differences between these two surveys.

BLS is a highly professional agency with dozens of people involved in the tabulation and analysis of these data. The idea that the data are manipulated is just completely implausible. Moreover, the data trends reported are clearly in line with previous monthly reports and other economic indicators (such as GDP)..., there’s nothing implausible about the reported data. ... All in all, there was nothing particularly strange about this month’s jobs reports—and certainly nothing to spur accusations of outright fraud.

.... "
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Outright lying is their own favorite tactic so they assume it is true of everyone else.

yrs,
rubato

[dales]

[rubato]

The problem with the cartoon is its complete inaccuracy.

This year set more high temperature records than any other in history and the arctic ice cap has shrunk to its lowest extant ever, by a large margin.

Dear Dales: "smartass cartoons are not a useful way of understanding the world" .. ? Ok?

And second, the real point of the post was that it is harmful to undercut the authority of bodies who really are good sources of information and non-ideological. The rhetorical point that "all people are lying all the time" is a tactic of the worst and most vile demagogues. They are lying and trying to manipulate you.

Generally accurate sources are:

The NBER.
The National Academies of Science.
The Congressional Budget Office.
The US Census.


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

They are lying

I'm sorry, did someone say, "lying"?...

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=7203&p=89553&hilit=liar#p89553

[dales]

Dear Dales: "smartass cartoons are not a useful way of understanding the world" .. ? Ok?

Neither is posting the same crap ad naseum.

[Gob]

Most people know that cartoons are a funny way of making a quick point, and do not take them as; "a useful way of understanding the world".

[dgs49]

As we all know, the BLS unemployment rate is almost always adjusted upward or downward a few months after its initial posting. It is also almost universally known that the numbers are skewed rather significantly these days by the fact that hundreds of thousands of Americans are despairing of finding a job and are thus no longer counted in the denominator. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of "Boomers" who had intended to work a few more years have decided to pull the plug and simply "retire," because they know that in this "Obama/Reid/Pelosi" economy they have no chance of finding gainful work in the foreseeable future.

Thus the unemployment rate - even if calculated with absolute accuracy (which is not possible with a survey) is not an accurate reflection of the unemployment situation, especially over the past four years. In fact, if the percentage of the population participating in the labor force were held constant since 2008 (with corrections for demographics), the currently calculated unemployment rate would be over 11% - which would be a disaster for Our Beloved President.

It would be nice to believe that the Labor Department - staffed at the top by OBP's nominees - has played it "straight" and is reporting the most accurate information available, with no regard to its political ramifications. It would be nice to believe that sometime after November 5th these number will not be adjusted upwards to something greater than 8.000000%.

But I do not believe it. Call me a cynic.

[Gob]

Wrong thread Dave.

Edited to add; whooops, not wrong thread Dave.

[dgs49]

From yesterday's Wall Street Journal: "The reality is that more than three years into this weakest of economic recoveries, 12.1 million Americans are still out of work -- nearly 23 million by the broader definition that includes those who have stopped looking or can't find full-time work -- and the labor participation rate is still down to 1981 levels at 63.6 percent."

Gas prices over $4.00? Over $5 for high test in California. (Under "the failed policies of Bush," they were less than $2.00).

Oh, yeah this President is on a roll!

[Big RR]

Jim--at what time "under the failed policies of Bush" were gas prices under $2.00? In 2008 (the election year, when the brunt of those "failed policies" was felt) I recall them being over $3.00, and approaching $4.00 later in the year. While there may have been gas prices (for regular perhaps) under $2.00 in the 8 years W was president, but I don't recall them.

[oldr_n_wsr]

In the summer of 2008 gas was over $4.00 a gallon as the only good thing about that was the wife let me buy a motorcycle and that's why I remember it.

[dales]

NOTE: THESE ARE NOT CALIFORNIA PRICES (WHICH RUN AT $1 HIGHER)

[dgs49]

Yes, prices spiked in 2008.

This thread is about published economic news, as it is used by the media and political campaigns.

The BLS (owned by OBP) has published unemployment numbers that falsely indicate a trend of lower unemployment. Whether the data have been cooked or not, there is no trend of lower unemployment. The economy is not creating enough jobs to account for the perpetually increasing labor force (in normal times), and the reduced "unemployment" number is a statistical anomaly (as I've demonstrated above).

On the other hand we have spiking gas pump prices, which under normal circumstances would be a "problem" for the incumbent president, however today's MSM relegates this "news" to a couple inches on the business page, and it is mainly being reported as a California aberration (as if anything in California were otherwise). It would get more notice on the front page, or, for Democrats, next to the Doonesbury cartoon (does it still exist?).

[oldr_n_wsr]

It would get more notice on the front page, or, for Democrats, next to the Doonesbury cartoon (does it still exist?).

Yes it does (Newsday on LI carries it)
Not many "presidential strips" in the last four years compared to the Bush years, but he has picked it up on Romney now that the election is close.

[dales]

On the other hand we have spiking gas pump prices, which under normal circumstances would be a "problem" for the incumbent president, however today's MSM relegates this "news" to a couple inches on the business page, and it is mainly being reported as a California aberration (as if anything in California were otherwise).

Well, that sicko PENN STATE child rapist was sentenced to 30 years today. That rancorous son of a b!tch will die in prison!

And yes, due to our unique CA formulation rules dictated by CARB, we pay more for gasoline. Of course we are about to slide into the Pacific, so I'd call it a wash.

[rubato]

Calif. gas prices spiked because gas refining is local (there are no pipes connecting refineries elsewhere to Calif. so that motor fuel cannot economically be shipped here), there are too few refineries and one was knocked out by a fire caused by incompetent management.

Overall, higher gas prices is a good thing.

yrs,
rubato

[dales]

Overall, economic malaise is a good thing.

Just ask Jimmy Carter or Barrak Obama.

[rubato]

Overall, economic malaise is a good thing.

Just ask Jimmy Carter or Barrak Obama.

The high unemployment at the end of Carter's term was a result of the Volcker disinflation which killed the spiking high inflation of the Nixon era and was the most important cause of the 80's prosperity . Short-term pain, longer-term huge benefit for all.

Obama took over during the worst economic collapse in 80 years created by republican incompetence and then was blocked from effective legislation by the party of treason who hurt you just to get re-elected.

But higher gas prices = short term discomfort in exchange for huge long-term benefits. Being less dependent on foreign oil makes us safer and more free in a way that no amount of defense spending ever can.

yrs,
rubato

[oldr_n_wsr]

Being less dependent on foreign oil makes us safer and more free in a way that no amount of defense spending ever can.

So you are for the Keystone pipeline and opening up more drilling in the USA, things Obama seems to be against?

Well I agree. Drill here to make us more independent and build the pipeline so we can buy Canada's oil (otherwise they will build a pipe to thier west coast and ship the oil to China) as Canada is much less "terrorist" controlled than any mid east country.

No sane person would disagree.

[Sue U]

Canada is much less "terrorist" controlled than any mid east country.

No sane person would disagree.

Have you checked with Scooter?