Airline ticket booking is just a modern take on check kiting. For those who don't remember working with checks, that's when you write a check when you know you don't have sufficient funds in the account, but you count on the two or three day lag time
(more if it was on a holiday weekend) for the check to process for you to be able get to the bank and cover it.
Airlines are doing the same thing — selling tickets for seats that they don't have because they have found in the past that some travelers make multiple reservations for the same journey at various times and on various airlines, pick the flight they want and then cancel the rest
(they also recognize that there are going to be some legitimate no-shows and last-minute cancellations for valid and unavoidable reasons and take those into account as well). Then they make a calculated gamble that the number of no-shows will be equal to the number of oversold tickets, because God forbid that the airplane should leave the ramp only partially full.
Going back to LR's stats, this means that United Airline "denied boarding" to 66,500 people out of some 86 million total passengers; which works out to about seven one-hundredths of one percent of ticketholders getting 'bumped'. So they've got the computer models and the algorithms worked out pretty well.... and when it doesn't they throw money, in the form of vouchers or other compensation, at the problem. But it still means that they are selling a lot of tickets — tickets for which they know at the time of the sale that they do not have a corresponding empty seat on the aircraft — to a lot of people.
So what's the worst thing that could happen if the airlines only sold as many tickets as there were seats
(or maybe didn't oversell by quite so much) and the plane ended up taking off with an empty seat or two? Sure, they lose the revenue they might have made by putting someone else's butt in that seat, but if they don't have to bribe people to get off an overbooked aircraft it just might end up being a wash.
-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?