The French Presidential Election...

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Gob
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Gob »

rubato wrote:The french have better food, thinner women, and more beautiful architecture than we do. I am optimistic that the country of Lafayette and Michel de Montaigne will triumph in the end.


yrs,
rubato

There you have Asperger boy's "Democrat" stance in a nutshell.

Shame he's never been outside his state, he may learn something..
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

rubato
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by rubato »

Other than Mexico, Canada, Jamaica, Norway, England, France, Spain, Belgium, The Faroe Islands, Iceland, Greenland, Hopi, Navajo, Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Mississippi, Guatemala ?

What a pathetic asshole you are.




yrs,
rubato

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Gob
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Gob »

I don't believe a word of it shitboy.

Here's a photo of my wife and kid in Hong Kong:

Image

Let's see one of you in anywhere other than your home state
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

rubato
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by rubato »

Oh, I forgot England but that was only for two nights. The Tate Britain was very nice (just around the corner from the hotel) as was the maritime museum at Greenwich. London is a shithole. Even worse than New York.

yrs,
rubato

rubato
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by rubato »

Gob wrote:
rubato wrote:The french have better food, thinner women, and more beautiful architecture than we do. I am optimistic that the country of Lafayette and Michel de Montaigne will triumph in the end.


yrs,
rubato

There you have Asperger boy's "Democrat" stance in a nutshell.

Shame he's never been outside his state, he may learn something..
Oh, that's right, you've never been here. Poor thing. Well, it's true we don't have as interesting architecture as France does. But we do have a much more spectacular natural landscape. But that is true versus everywhere in the world.

yrs,
rubato

Burning Petard
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Burning Petard »

To Gob and Rubato, I invite you to draw a circle 100 miles in diameter, centered on Bear Delaware, and explore it for two weeks, preferably on foot, bicycle, public transit bus. Lots of natural and man-made beauty, quirky culture, interesting individuals and history just as ancient as anything in Australia.

snailgate

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Guinevere
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Guinevere »

rubato wrote:The french have better food, thinner women, and more beautiful architecture than we do. I am optimistic that the country of Lafayette and Michel de Montaigne will triumph in the end.


yrs,
rubato
God knows I love France, and all things French, but you're wrong. No country can compete with the beauty, variety, and quality of food, art, architecture, woman, and natural resources found in the USA.

ETA x2 for typos and grammar.
Last edited by Guinevere on Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
“I ask no favor for my sex. All I ask of our brethren is that they take their feet off our necks.” ~ Ruth Bader Ginsburg, paraphrasing Sarah Moore Grimké

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Guinevere
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Guinevere »

rubato wrote:
Gob wrote:
rubato wrote:The french have better food, thinner women, and more beautiful architecture than we do. I am optimistic that the country of Lafayette and Michel de Montaigne will triumph in the end.


yrs,
rubato

There you have Asperger boy's "Democrat" stance in a nutshell.

Shame he's never been outside his state, he may learn something..
Oh, that's right, you've never been here. Poor thing. Well, it's true we don't have as interesting architecture as France does. But we do have a much more spectacular natural landscape. But that is true versus everywhere in the world.

yrs,
rubato
And you've never been to Australia. Or Wales. Who the fuck cares??
“I ask no favor for my sex. All I ask of our brethren is that they take their feet off our necks.” ~ Ruth Bader Ginsburg, paraphrasing Sarah Moore Grimké

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RayThom
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The French Presidential Election...

Post by RayThom »

Burning Petard wrote:To Gob and Rubato, I invite you to draw a circle 100 miles in diameter, centered on Bear Delaware, and explore it for two weeks, preferably on foot, bicycle, public transit bus. Lots of natural and man-made beauty, quirky culture, interesting individuals and history just as ancient as anything in Australia.
snailgate
Yeah... and I am one of those interesting individuals found within that circle, in the Mushroom Capital of the World -- Kennett Square PA. What more could you ask for?
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dales
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by dales »

Anyone here been to Lichtenstein?

Turn around and it's gone! :lol:

Your collective inability to acknowledge this obvious truth makes you all look like fools.


yrs,
rubato

Burning Petard
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Burning Petard »

Yes, I was in Lichtenstein in July of 1963, via tour bus from Austria. As we approached the main valley I could see two rainbows, the only time I have seen such double rainbows even tho I have read they are not particularly unusual.

snailgate.

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Scooter
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Scooter »

After all that has happened in the 15 years since her father took 17% of the vote in the first round, and in spite of her efforts to put forward a somewhat more moderate and definitely less insane face than her father, she still only managed 4 points better.

I think the French are a lot more level headed and insightful than some are willing to give them credit.
"Hang on while I log in to the James Webb telescope to search the known universe for who the fuck asked you." -- James Fell

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Scooter
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Scooter »

There is an interesting chart here that gives a breakdown of the electorate in various categories who supported each candidate. A few things that look to have been determinant of the result:

Macron got the votes of 60% of those in the political centre. LePen got 5% of this group, and 80% of those who are "extreme far right". The FN will not grow beyond the fringe without doing something to change this.

LePen was way out in front among voters who decided several months ago, but only picked up 10% of those who decided in the last few weeks or days. Macron locked up three times as many.

LePen placed a distant third to Macron and Filion among voters over 60, who also have much better turnout than younger voters. This one surprised me, I would have thought LePen appeals to fear and a a past that never existed would have resonated with older voters. Instead, they saw through her better than any other age group.
"Hang on while I log in to the James Webb telescope to search the known universe for who the fuck asked you." -- James Fell

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Lord Jim
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Lord Jim »

After all that has happened in the 15 years since her father took 17% of the vote in the first round,
And he lost 82% to 18% to Jacques Chirac in the final round...
Scooter wrote:There is an interesting chart here that gives a breakdown of the electorate in various categories who supported each candidate. A few things that look to have been determinant of the result:

Macron got the votes of 60% of those in the political centre. LePen got 5% of this group, and 80% of those who are "extreme far right". The FN will not grow beyond the fringe without doing something to change this.

LePen was way out in front among voters who decided several months ago, but only picked up 10% of those who decided in the last few weeks or days. Macron locked up three times as many.

LePen placed a distant third to Macron and Filion among voters over 60, who also have much better turnout than younger voters. This one surprised me, I would have thought LePen appeals to fear and a a past that never existed would have resonated with older voters. Instead, they saw through her better than any other age group.
That's an excellent analysis...

The dynamics of French politics are very different than in the US (plus the recent record in Europe for fending off populist demagogues from being elected is better than ours... :oops: ) so an analogy with Trump is misplaced on a number of levels...

Macron won't beat Madame Le Pen by the same margin that Chirac defeated her father...

(The relatively inexperienced Emmanuel Macron is not Jacques Chirac running for re-election, and Marine Le Pen is not seen as odious or scary as her old man...)

But with the entire political spectrum of French politics outside of the very far-right , (from the Trotskyites on the Left to the Parti Républicain and other Gaullists on the right) arrayed against Le Pen, (even if she picks up some votes from some disaffected rank and file leftists who voted for Mélenchon who just want to "kick over the table") something like a 60-40 win for Macron (or perhaps a bit more) would seem to be pretty much a sure bet...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Lord Jim
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Lord Jim »

This would seem to back up my analysis:
Emmanuel Macron leads Marine Le Pen by at least 20 points in every French election poll since end of first round

Former socialist minister expected to win in landslide after second round of voting

Emmanuel Macron is at least 20 points ahead of Marine Le Pen in every poll on the French presidential election taken since the first round of voting.

Mr Macron, a former minister who set up his own party to run for president, came top on Sunday, with 23.8 per cent of the ballots cast.

Ms Le Pen, the former Front National (FN) leader, joined the 38-year-old in the presidential run-off after coming second with 21.5 per cent of the vote.

But every survey suggests Mr Macron will claim a landslide victory when French voters go back to the booth on 7 May.

Polling conducted by Elabe and Harris both give the centrist candidate a 38-point lead, while Ipsos calculated a cushion of 24 points.

OpinionWay put Ms Le Pen 22 points behind, while Ifop conducted two rounds of polling, putting her 20 and 21 points back respectively.


Leading politics experts believe Mr Macron will “blow Marine Le Pen out of the water” following his successful 'En Marche!' campaign.

Dr Rainbow Murray, [Okay, I admit it's tough to take somebody seriously whose name is "Rainbow"...but even so...] a French politics expert from Queen Mary University, told The Independent it would take a scandal of "significant proportion" to ruin his chances.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 01986.html

Now, before somebody jumps up and says "Yeah, but all the polls said Hillary would win, and look what happened"...

Let me point out a couple of things...

First of all when it came to the national popular vote projections, (which is how the French election will be decided) the polls were NOT wrong...

The final RCP average of polls was well within the margin of error, versus the final result...

Hillary won the popular vote with 48.2% to 46.1% for Trump....

The final RCP average of polls had Hillary carrying the popular vote nationally by 46.8% to 43.6%...

(A difference of about 1%...on this score, the polls were spot on)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

Second, no poll ever, had Hillary leading by 20 plus points...

And the final round in the French Presidential election is only two weeks away, so there's not a whole lot of time for these dynamics to change...
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RayThom
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The French Presidential Election...

Post by RayThom »

Burning Petard wrote:...As we approached the main valley I could see two rainbows, the only time I have seen such double rainbows even tho I have read they are not particularly unusual.
snailgate.
Is this you, sg?
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Gob
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Gob »

dales wrote:Anyone here been to Liechtenstein?

Turn around and it's gone! :lol:
My mate Clarkie had a teaching job there, I stayed with him for a while.

We used to walk into Switzerland while walking his dog.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by oldr_n_wsr »

No country can compete with the beauty, variety, and quality of food, art, architecture, woman, and natural resources found in the USA.
:ok :ok :ok :ok :ok
(5 thumbs up) :mrgreen:
And I have been to Lichtenstein. Summer of '75. Also visited Germany, France, Switzerland and Austria that summer.
oldr_n_wsr The Euro-Tour
:o :mrgreen:

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Lord Jim
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Lord Jim »

Another "Muscovite Candidate":
Fears of Russian meddling as France prepares to go to the polls

(CNN)The warning came from across the Atlantic last month.

Richard Burr, the head of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, was presiding over a briefing on the investigation into alleged Russian interference in the US presidential election when he offered his assessment of who the next target might be.

"I think it's safe by everybody's judgment that the Russians are actively involved in the French elections," Burr told reporters. "Part of our responsibility is to educate the rest of the world."

Burr's warning came to fruition this week with the revelation that campaign staff for Emmanuel Macron, the favorite to become France's next president, had been targeted by suspected Russian-linked hackers

The news did not come as a surprise to the Macron camp, or to experts who say Russia may be working behind the scenes to swing the result in favor of his opponent Marine Le Pen.

But while Russia has denied the hacking claims, fears of potential Kremlin interference now loom large over the election as voters prepare to head to the polls for the final round of voting next Sunday.

Why would Russia target France?

Russia says it has no preferred candidate in the French election, but it has good reasons to support Le Pen over Macron.

Le Pen's anti-Europe and anti-NATO stance are perfectly aligned with Russian interests, and she has consistently called for closer ties with President Vladimir Putin.

Le Pen has also expressed a desire to roll back European Union sanctions levied on Russia in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea, which she has described as "unfair and silly."


It is a stance which contrasts markedly with Macron, a pro-EU, pro-integration candidate who has said he would keep sanctions on Russia in place, if not add to them.

While Macron has run as an independent centrist, Le Pen has campaigned, until recently, as head of the far-right National Front. She's faced criticism for the fact that her campaign was partly funded by a Russian bank. But she said she had no other choice, after French banks turned her down.

Eyebrows were raised when Le Pen traveled to Moscow for a meeting with Putin last month.

Putin stressed the "great importance" of closer French-Russian ties following the meeting. And although the Kremlin insists it is not playing favorites in the French election, Le Pen's position on Russia is quite clear.

"Le Pen has been very open about her desire to have better relations with Russia -- she's an outspoken opponent of sanctions [against Russia], and she's interested in taking France outside of NATO," said Will Pomeranz at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

"She has a very populist right-wing message that plays to Putin's narratives -- it undermines Western institutions."[Sound familiar?]
http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/28/europe/fr ... on-russia/
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Burning Petard
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Re: The French Presidential Election...

Post by Burning Petard »

This all reminds me of the final scene in Orwell's 'Animal Farm'

snailgate

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